September 11, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning following another relatively quiet overnight session. China will reportedly be exempting some U.S. imports from tariffs, but this isn’t very consequential in the grand scheme (both sides have done this with imposed tariffs).  It appears that both sides are progressing toward a “mini deal” to be finalized when senior officials gather in Washington in early October. This would by no means be perceived as a comprehensive solution, but it might buy both sides a little more time from a market perspective.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2% for the week ended September 6, with purchase applications of 4.5%. It was a holiday-shortened week, but refi applications were essentially unchanged over the week following two consecutive 7% weekly declines. The refi index had surged to a 3-year high this summer amid a 50 bps decline in primary mortgage rates prior to the slowdown in activity over the last three weeks.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/11/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.00% -3.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.70% 1.80% 1.70%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.30% 2.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.90% 1.70%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -0.30%
9/12/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.80% 0.90%
9/12/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.30% 1.40%
9/12/2019 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI YoY 1.80% 1.80%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.20%
9/12/2019 CPI Core Index SA 264.1 263.569
9/12/2019 CPI Index NSA 256.586 256.571
9/12/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 217k
9/12/2019 Continuing Claims 1675k 1662k
9/12/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.4
9/12/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$195.0b -$119.7b
9/13/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.00%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index YoY -2.00% -1.80%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index YoY -0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% 0.70%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 90.8 89.8
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 107.8 105.3
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.2 79.9
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
9/13/2019 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.00%

 

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