September 11, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning following another relatively quiet overnight session. China will reportedly be exempting some U.S. imports from tariffs, but this isn’t very consequential in the grand scheme (both sides have done this with imposed tariffs).  It appears that both sides are progressing toward a “mini deal” to be finalized when senior officials gather in Washington in early October. This would by no means be perceived as a comprehensive solution, but it might buy both sides a little more time from a market perspective.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2% for the week ended September 6, with purchase applications of 4.5%. It was a holiday-shortened week, but refi applications were essentially unchanged over the week following two consecutive 7% weekly declines. The refi index had surged to a 3-year high this summer amid a 50 bps decline in primary mortgage rates prior to the slowdown in activity over the last three weeks.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/11/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%-3.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%0.10%0.20%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%2.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.90%1.70%
9/11/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%
9/11/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.30%
9/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.80%0.90%
9/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.30%1.40%
9/12/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI YoY1.80%1.80%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
9/12/2019CPI Core Index SA264.1263.569
9/12/2019CPI Index NSA256.586256.571
9/12/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k217k
9/12/2019Continuing Claims1675k1662k
9/12/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.4
9/12/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$195.0b-$119.7b
9/13/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.50%0.20%
9/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%
9/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.00%-1.80%
9/13/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.30%0.20%
9/13/2019Export Price Index YoY-0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.70%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%1.00%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%1.00%
9/13/2019Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment90.889.8
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions107.8105.3
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.279.9
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
9/13/2019Business Inventories0.30%0.00%

 

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