September 11, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed this morning following another relatively quiet overnight session. China will reportedly be exempting some U.S. imports from tariffs, but this isn’t very consequential in the grand scheme (both sides have done this with imposed tariffs). It appears that both sides are progressing toward a “mini deal” to be finalized when senior officials gather in Washington in early October. This would by no means be perceived as a comprehensive solution, but it might buy both sides a little more time from a market perspective.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 2% for the week ended September 6, with purchase applications of 4.5%. It was a holiday-shortened week, but refi applications were essentially unchanged over the week following two consecutive 7% weekly declines. The refi index had surged to a 3-year high this summer amid a 50 bps decline in primary mortgage rates prior to the slowdown in activity over the last three weeks.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/11/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.00%	-3.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.00%	0.10%	0.20%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.30%	-0.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.40%	-0.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.70%	1.80%	1.70%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.20%	2.30%	2.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	1.90%	1.70%	—
9/11/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
9/11/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	-0.30%	—
9/12/2019	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	0.80%	0.90%
9/12/2019	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	1.30%	1.40%
9/12/2019	CPI MoM	0.10%	—	0.30%	—
9/12/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
9/12/2019	CPI YoY	1.80%	—	1.80%	—
9/12/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	—	2.20%	—
9/12/2019	CPI Core Index SA	264.1	—	263.569	—
9/12/2019	CPI Index NSA	256.586	—	256.571	—
9/12/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	217k	—
9/12/2019	Continuing Claims	1675k	—	1662k	—
9/12/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.4	—
9/12/2019	Monthly Budget Statement	-$195.0b	—	-$119.7b	—
9/13/2019	Import Price Index MoM	-0.50%	—	0.20%	—
9/13/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	—	0.00%	—
9/13/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-2.00%	—	-1.80%	—
9/13/2019	Export Price Index MoM	-0.30%	—	0.20%	—
9/13/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-0.90%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	—	0.70%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	—	1.00%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	—	0.90%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	—	1.00%	—
9/13/2019	Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	90.8	—	89.8	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	107.8	—	105.3	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	85.2	—	79.9	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.60%	—
9/13/2019	Business Inventories	0.30%	—	0.00%	—

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