Treasury prices are lower this morning, with the 10-year yield approaching the psychologically-significant 3% level again. We highlight the psychological aspect because there’s no real fundamental significance beyond that. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight (Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng -0.7%), and European markets and U.S. futures are lower. Trade worries remain on the forefront, and the U.S. dollar index is higher today as well. The White House is said to be considering sanctions against certain Chinese officials over human rights violations, and Reuters reports that China will ask the World Trade Organization for permission to impose sanctions against the United States. On a positive note, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached a new record high of 108.8 in August (survey initiated in 1974). The previous high mark for the index was set in 1983, and the August survey included records highs for job creation plans and unfilled job openings. Additionally, inventory investment and capital spending plans were the highest since 2005 and 2007, respectively. German economic sentiment (ZEW survey) and U.K. wage growth were both better than expected as well today. The primary concern for financial markets is whether positive economic momentum is derailed by other factors (trade, emerging markets stress, etc.).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
09/10/2018 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | $16.640b | $10.211b | $8.463b |
09/11/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 108 | 108.8 | 107.9 | — |
09/11/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6675 | — | 6662 | — |
09/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
09/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
09/12/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.10% | — |
09/12/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
09/12/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.70% | — |
09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
09/12/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
09/13/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
09/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
09/13/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.90% | — |
09/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
09/13/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 252.343 | — | 252.006 | — |
09/13/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 258.414 | — | 257.93 | — |
09/13/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.10% | — |
09/13/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | -0.20% | -0.10% |
09/13/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 203k | — |
09/13/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1710k | — | 1707k | — |
09/13/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58 | — |
09/13/2018 | Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey | ||||
09/13/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$183.0b | — | -$76.9b | — |
09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
09/14/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
09/14/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
09/14/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.80% | — |
09/14/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.50% | — |
09/14/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 4.30% | — |
09/14/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
09/14/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.20% | — | 78.10% | — |
09/14/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
09/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 96.6 | — | 96.2 | — |
09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 110.3 | — |
09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.1 | — |
09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |