Treasury prices are lower this morning, with the 10-year yield approaching the psychologically-significant 3% level again. We highlight the psychological aspect because there’s no real fundamental significance beyond that. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight (Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng -0.7%), and European markets and U.S. futures are lower.  Trade worries remain on the forefront, and the U.S. dollar index is higher today as well. The White House is said to be considering sanctions against certain Chinese officials over human rights violations, and Reuters reports that China will ask the World Trade Organization for permission to impose sanctions against the United States. On a positive note, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  reached a new record high of 108.8 in August (survey initiated in 1974). The previous high mark for the index was set in 1983, and the August survey included records highs for job creation plans and unfilled job openings. Additionally, inventory investment and capital spending plans were the highest since 2005 and 2007, respectively. German economic sentiment (ZEW survey) and U.K. wage growth were both better than expected as well today. The primary concern for financial markets is whether positive economic momentum is derailed by other factors (trade, emerging markets stress, etc.).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/10/2018Consumer Credit$14.000b$16.640b$10.211b$8.463b
09/11/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism108108.8107.9
09/11/2018JOLTS Job Openings66756662
09/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.70%
09/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%-0.10%
09/12/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.00%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.20%3.30%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.70%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.80%
09/12/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
09/13/2018CPI MoM0.30%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI YoY2.80%2.90%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%
09/13/2018CPI Index NSA252.343252.006
09/13/2018CPI Core Index SA258.414257.93
09/13/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.10%
09/13/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.20%-0.10%
09/13/2018Initial Jobless Claims210k203k
09/13/2018Continuing Claims1710k1707k
09/13/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58
09/13/2018Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
09/13/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$183.0b-$76.9b
09/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.50%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.60%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.60%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%
09/14/2018Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.00%
09/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.10%
09/14/2018Import Price Index YoY4.10%4.80%
09/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.00%-0.50%
09/14/2018Export Price Index YoY4.30%
09/14/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.10%
09/14/2018Capacity Utilization78.20%78.10%
09/14/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.30%
09/14/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.10%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment96.696.2
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions110.3
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.1
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%