Treasury prices are lower this morning, with the 10-year yield approaching the psychologically-significant 3% level again. We highlight the psychological aspect because there’s no real fundamental significance beyond that. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight (Nikkei +1.3%, Hang Seng -0.7%), and European markets and U.S. futures are lower.  Trade worries remain on the forefront, and the U.S. dollar index is higher today as well. The White House is said to be considering sanctions against certain Chinese officials over human rights violations, and Reuters reports that China will ask the World Trade Organization for permission to impose sanctions against the United States. On a positive note, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index  reached a new record high of 108.8 in August (survey initiated in 1974). The previous high mark for the index was set in 1983, and the August survey included records highs for job creation plans and unfilled job openings. Additionally, inventory investment and capital spending plans were the highest since 2005 and 2007, respectively. German economic sentiment (ZEW survey) and U.K. wage growth were both better than expected as well today. The primary concern for financial markets is whether positive economic momentum is derailed by other factors (trade, emerging markets stress, etc.).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
09/10/2018 Consumer Credit $14.000b $16.640b $10.211b $8.463b
09/11/2018 NFIB Small Business Optimism 108 108.8 107.9
09/11/2018 JOLTS Job Openings 6675 6662
09/11/2018 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.70% 0.70%
09/11/2018 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.10% -0.10%
09/12/2018 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.10%
09/12/2018 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.20% 0.00%
09/12/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.10%
09/12/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.30%
09/12/2018 PPI Final Demand YoY 3.20% 3.30%
09/12/2018 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.70% 2.70%
09/12/2018 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.80%
09/12/2018 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
09/13/2018 CPI MoM 0.30% 0.20%
09/13/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
09/13/2018 CPI YoY 2.80% 2.90%
09/13/2018 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.40% 2.40%
09/13/2018 CPI Index NSA 252.343 252.006
09/13/2018 CPI Core Index SA 258.414 257.93
09/13/2018 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.10%
09/13/2018 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -0.20% -0.10%
09/13/2018 Initial Jobless Claims 210k 203k
09/13/2018 Continuing Claims 1710k 1707k
09/13/2018 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58
09/13/2018 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
09/13/2018 Monthly Budget Statement -$183.0b -$76.9b
09/14/2018 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.40% 0.50%
09/14/2018 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.50% 0.60%
09/14/2018 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 0.60%
09/14/2018 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% 0.50%
09/14/2018 Import Price Index MoM -0.20% 0.00%
09/14/2018 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.20% -0.10%
09/14/2018 Import Price Index YoY 4.10% 4.80%
09/14/2018 Export Price Index MoM 0.00% -0.50%
09/14/2018 Export Price Index YoY 4.30%
09/14/2018 Industrial Production MoM 0.30% 0.10%
09/14/2018 Capacity Utilization 78.20% 78.10%
09/14/2018 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% 0.30%
09/14/2018 Business Inventories 0.60% 0.10%
09/14/2018 U. of Mich. Sentiment 96.6 96.2
09/14/2018 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 110.3
09/14/2018 U. of Mich. Expectations 87.1
09/14/2018 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00%
09/14/2018 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%