Treasury prices are lower again today following the passage of less draconian U.N. sanctions against North Korea, which is viewed as at least a temporary de-escalation. The 10-year yield is back above 2.15% after touching 2.01% last Friday (1.25 points of price movement). A much better than expected CPI reading in the U.K. is also contributing to the weakness in global government bond yields this morning, and all major equity indices are higher (Nikkei +1.2%, Euro Stoxx +0.6%). S&P 500 futures are currently up 4 points. In a New York Times article, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggests that criticism over last week’s short-term fiscal agreement was overblown, and he also said “the deal is not as good as my counterpart (Chuck Schumer) thought it was.” The reason for McConnell’s optimism is the fact that legislation allows the Treasury Department to reset its extraordinary measures, which means the debt ceiling wouldn’t become an issue until “well into 2018.” The basic idea is that Democrats would have less leverage in negotiating a new federal budget in December without the debt ceiling looming at the same time.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
09/12/2017 06:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug 104.8 105.3 105.2
09/12/2017 10:00 JOLTS Job Openings Jul 6000 6170 6163 6116
09/13/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8-Sep 3.30%
09/13/2017 08:30 PPI Final Demand MoM Aug 0.30% -0.10%
09/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.20% -0.10%
09/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM Aug 0.10% 0.00%
09/13/2017 08:30 PPI Final Demand YoY Aug 2.50% 1.90%
09/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Aug 2.10% 1.80%
09/13/2017 08:30 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY Aug 1.90%
09/13/2017 14:00 Monthly Budget Statement Aug -$119.0b -$107.1b
09/14/2017 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 9-Sep 300k 298k
09/14/2017 08:30 Continuing Claims 2-Sep 1950k 1940k
09/14/2017 08:30 CPI MoM Aug 0.30% 0.10%
09/14/2017 08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Aug 0.20% 0.10%
09/14/2017 08:30 CPI YoY Aug 1.80% 1.70%
09/14/2017 08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Aug 1.60% 1.70%
09/14/2017 08:30 CPI Core Index SA Aug 252.331 251.914
09/14/2017 08:30 CPI Index NSA Aug 245.35 244.786
09/14/2017 08:30 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY Aug 1.10%
09/14/2017 08:30 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY Aug 0.70%
09/14/2017 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 10-Sep 52.6
09/15/2017 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Sep 17.8 25.2
09/15/2017 08:30 Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug 0.10% 0.60%
09/15/2017 08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Aug 0.50% 0.50%
09/15/2017 08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Aug 0.30% 0.50%
09/15/2017 08:30 Retail Sales Control Group Aug 0.20% 0.60%
09/15/2017 09:15 Industrial Production MoM Aug 0.10% 0.20%
09/15/2017 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 76.80% 76.70%
09/15/2017 09:15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production Aug 0.40% -0.10%
09/15/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep P 95.1 96.8
09/15/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Sep P 110.9
09/15/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations Sep P 87.7
09/15/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Sep P 2.60%
09/15/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Sep P 2.50%
09/15/2017 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.20% 0.50%