Treasury prices are lower again today following the passage of less draconian U.N. sanctions against North Korea, which is viewed as at least a temporary de-escalation. The 10-year yield is back above 2.15% after touching 2.01% last Friday (1.25 points of price movement). A much better than expected CPI reading in the U.K. is also contributing to the weakness in global government bond yields this morning, and all major equity indices are higher (Nikkei +1.2%, Euro Stoxx +0.6%). S&P 500 futures are currently up 4 points. In a New York Times article, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggests that criticism over last week’s short-term fiscal agreement was overblown, and he also said “the deal is not as good as my counterpart (Chuck Schumer) thought it was.” The reason for McConnell’s optimism is the fact that legislation allows the Treasury Department to reset its extraordinary measures, which means the debt ceiling wouldn’t become an issue until “well into 2018.” The basic idea is that Democrats would have less leverage in negotiating a new federal budget in December without the debt ceiling looming at the same time.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 09/12/2017 06:00 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Aug | 104.8 | 105.3 | 105.2 | — |
| 09/12/2017 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings | Jul | 6000 | 6170 | 6163 | 6116 |
| 09/13/2017 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 8-Sep | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Aug | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Aug | 2.50% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Aug | 2.10% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Aug | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 09/13/2017 14:00 | Monthly Budget Statement | Aug | -$119.0b | — | -$107.1b | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 9-Sep | 300k | — | 298k | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 2-Sep | 1950k | — | 1940k | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI YoY | Aug | 1.80% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Aug | 1.60% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Core Index SA | Aug | 252.331 | — | 251.914 | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Index NSA | Aug | 245.35 | — | 244.786 | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Aug | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Aug | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 09/14/2017 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 10-Sep | — | — | 52.6 | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Sep | 17.8 | — | 25.2 | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Aug | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Control Group | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Industrial Production MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Aug | 76.80% | — | 76.70% | — |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | Aug | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Sep P | 95.1 | — | 96.8 | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Sep P | — | — | 110.9 | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Sep P | — | — | 87.7 | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Sep P | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Sep P | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | Business Inventories | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |