September 12, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are 4-8 bps lower this morning despite a hotter core inflation report for August and positive trade headlines overnight. The big news today affecting the bond market was the ECB’s decision to resume quantitative easing, as well as cut its benchmark deposit rate another 10 bps to -0.5%. The resumption of bond purchases is the bigger impact for financial markets (particularly bonds), and the central bank will start buying securities on November 1 at an initial pace of €20 billion per month.

The headline CPI data for August was essentially in line with expectations, but core readings surprised to the upside, rising 0.3% month-over-month (0.2% expected). On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose to 2.4% in August, up 20 bps from the prior month and the highest reading in 11 years. As noted above, this report has been completely overshadowed by the ECB news, and some are questioning whether it’s too little, too late given global economic trends.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/9/2019 Consumer Credit $16.000b $23.294b $14.596b $13.781b
9/10/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 103.5 103.1 104.7
9/10/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 7331 7217 7348 7248
9/11/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.00% -3.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.70% 1.80% 1.70%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.30% 2.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.90% 1.70%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.30% -0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI YoY 1.80% 1.70% 1.80%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.40% 2.20%
9/12/2019 CPI Core Index SA 264.1 264.245 263.569
9/12/2019 CPI Index NSA 256.586 256.558 256.571
9/12/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 1.20% 0.80% 0.90%
9/12/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.50% 1.30% 1.40%
9/12/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 204k 217k 219k
9/12/2019 Continuing Claims 1675k 1670k 1662k 1674k
9/12/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.2 63.4
9/12/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$200.0b -$214.1b
9/13/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.00%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index YoY -2.00% -1.80%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index YoY -0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% 0.70%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 90.8 89.8
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 107.8 105.3
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.2 79.9
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
9/13/2019 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.00%



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