September 12, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are 4-8 bps lower this morning despite a hotter core inflation report for August and positive trade headlines overnight. The big news today affecting the bond market was the ECB’s decision to resume quantitative easing, as well as cut its benchmark deposit rate another 10 bps to -0.5%. The resumption of bond purchases is the bigger impact for financial markets (particularly bonds), and the central bank will start buying securities on November 1 at an initial pace of €20 billion per month.

The headline CPI data for August was essentially in line with expectations, but core readings surprised to the upside, rising 0.3% month-over-month (0.2% expected). On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose to 2.4% in August, up 20 bps from the prior month and the highest reading in 11 years. As noted above, this report has been completely overshadowed by the ECB news, and some are questioning whether it’s too little, too late given global economic trends.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/9/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$23.294b$14.596b$13.781b
9/10/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103.5103.1104.7
9/10/2019JOLTS Job Openings7331721773487248
9/11/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%-3.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%0.10%0.20%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%2.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.90%1.70%
9/11/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
9/11/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%-0.30%
9/12/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.10%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI YoY1.80%1.70%1.80%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.40%2.20%
9/12/2019CPI Core Index SA264.1264.245263.569
9/12/2019CPI Index NSA256.586256.558256.571
9/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.20%0.80%0.90%
9/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%1.30%1.40%
9/12/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k204k217k219k
9/12/2019Continuing Claims1675k1670k1662k1674k
9/12/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.263.4
9/12/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$200.0b-$214.1b
9/13/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.50%0.20%
9/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%
9/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.00%-1.80%
9/13/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.30%0.20%
9/13/2019Export Price Index YoY-0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.70%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%1.00%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%1.00%
9/13/2019Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment90.889.8
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions107.8105.3
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.279.9
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
9/13/2019Business Inventories0.30%0.00%

 

 

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