September 12, 2022 Headlines

A modest rally in Treasuries to start the week has front-end yields 3-4 basis points lower, taking back a little bit of the sell-off late last week. The persistent barrage of hawkish Fedspeak as last week progressed led the market to more fully price a 75 basis point rate hike for next week’s FOMC meeting and sent 2-year and 3-year yields to fresh 15-year highs. There are no economic releases in the U.S. today, but all eyes will be fixated on tomorrow’s August CPI report. Headline inflation is expected to fall slightly month-over-month thanks to falling gasoline prices, but the core rate is expected to remain relatively high at 0.3% m/m. Food and rent inflation were likely elevated again last month, the latter of which impacts approximately 40% of the core calculation. We wrote about this in more detail in the September Monthly Market Commentary, and even though there are some signs of moderation in national rent prices according to Zillow and Apartment List, there is typically a lag in the time that such moderation works its way through the CPI calculation.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/13/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	90.5	—	89.9	—
09/13/22	CPI MoM	-0.10%	—	0.00%	—
09/13/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
09/13/22	CPI YoY	8.00%	—	8.50%	—
09/13/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.10%	—	5.90%	—
09/13/22	CPI Index NSA	295.635	—	296.276	—
09/13/22	CPI Core Index SA	296.28	—	295.275	—
09/13/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	-3.00%	—
09/13/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	-3.60%	—
09/13/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$212.5b	—	-$211.1b	—
09/14/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-0.80%	—
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.10%	—	7.60%	—
09/14/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	-0.10%	—	-0.50%	—
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
09/14/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.80%	—	9.80%	—
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	5.50%	—	5.80%	—
09/15/22	Initial Jobless Claims	227k	—	222k	—
09/15/22	Empire Manufacturing	-15	—	-31.3	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
09/15/22	Continuing Claims	1477k	—	1473k	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.00%	—	0.40%	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.70%	—	0.70%	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Control Group	0.50%	—	0.80%	—
09/15/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	3	—	6.2	—
09/15/22	Import Price Index MoM	-1.30%	—	-1.40%	—
09/15/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.50%	—	-0.70%	—
09/15/22	Import Price Index YoY	7.70%	—	8.80%	—
09/15/22	Export Price Index MoM	-1.10%	—	-3.30%	—
09/15/22	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	13.10%	—
09/15/22	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	—	0.60%	—
09/15/22	Capacity Utilization	80.30%	—	80.30%	—
09/15/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.10%	—	0.70%	—
09/15/22	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	1.40%	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	60	—	58.2	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	60.2	—	58.6	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	59	—	58	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.60%	—	4.80%	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—
09/16/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$121.8b	—
09/16/22	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$22.1b	—

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