September 12, 2022 Headlines

A modest rally in Treasuries to start the week has front-end yields 3-4 basis points lower, taking back a little bit of the sell-off late last week. The persistent barrage of hawkish Fedspeak as last week progressed led the market to more fully price a 75 basis point rate hike for next week’s FOMC meeting and sent 2-year and 3-year yields to fresh 15-year highs. There are no economic releases in the U.S. today, but all eyes will be fixated on tomorrow’s August CPI report. Headline inflation is expected to fall slightly month-over-month thanks to falling gasoline prices, but the core rate is expected to remain relatively high at 0.3% m/m. Food and rent inflation were likely elevated again last month, the latter of which impacts approximately 40% of the core calculation. We wrote about this in more detail in the September Monthly Market Commentary, and even though there are some signs of moderation in national rent prices according to Zillow and Apartment List, there is typically a lag in the time that such moderation works its way through the CPI calculation.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/13/22NFIB Small Business Optimism90.589.9
09/13/22CPI MoM-0.10%0.00%
09/13/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
09/13/22CPI YoY8.00%8.50%
09/13/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.10%5.90%
09/13/22CPI Index NSA295.635296.276
09/13/22CPI Core Index SA296.28295.275
09/13/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-3.00%
09/13/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.60%
09/13/22Monthly Budget Statement-$212.5b-$211.1b
09/14/22MBA Mortgage Applications-0.80%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.10%7.60%
09/14/22PPI Final Demand MoM-0.10%-0.50%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.20%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.20%
09/14/22PPI Final Demand YoY8.80%9.80%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.50%5.80%
09/15/22Initial Jobless Claims227k222k
09/15/22Empire Manufacturing-15-31.3
09/15/22Retail Sales Advance MoM0.00%0.00%
09/15/22Continuing Claims1477k1473k
09/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%0.40%
09/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.70%0.70%
09/15/22Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.80%
09/15/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook36.2
09/15/22Import Price Index MoM-1.30%-1.40%
09/15/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.50%-0.70%
09/15/22Import Price Index YoY7.70%8.80%
09/15/22Export Price Index MoM-1.10%-3.30%
09/15/22Export Price Index YoY13.10%
09/15/22Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.60%
09/15/22Capacity Utilization80.30%80.30%
09/15/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%0.70%
09/15/22Business Inventories0.60%1.40%
09/16/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6058.2
09/16/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions60.258.6
09/16/22U. of Mich. Expectations5958
09/16/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.80%
09/16/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%
09/16/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$121.8b
09/16/22Total Net TIC Flows$22.1b

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