The Treasury market is rallying this morning in response to a lower than expected print in August’s PPI print, which actually contracted by 0.1% vs the 0.2% median expectation. The producer price index fell for the first time in 18 months driven largely by declining costs for machinery and equipment wholesaling. Core PPI, the measure that excludes food and energy, also saw a 0.1% contraction in August and is up 2.3% year over year; 0.4% lower than what the market was expecting. One data point doesn’t make a trend, and economists don’t expect inflation to face downward pressure going forward. PPI also is considered to be less important than CPI, which will be released tomorrow morning; and given that PCE is above the Fed’s 2% target there hasn’t been any change in the market’s expectation around a rate hike later this month.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 09/10 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | $16.640b | $10.211b |
| 09/11 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 108 | 108.8 | 107.9 |
| 09/11 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6675 | 6939 | 6662 |
| 09/11 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 09/11 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 09/12 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.80% | -0.10% |
| 09/12 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 09/12 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.10% |
| 09/12 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 09/12 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.20% | 2.80% | 3.30% |
| 09/12 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | 2.30% | 2.70% |
| 09/12 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.80% |
| 09/12 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | |||
| 09/13 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 09/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 09/13 | CPI YoY | 2.80% | — | 2.90% |
| 09/13 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | — | 2.40% |
| 09/13 | CPI Index NSA | 252.343 | — | 252.006 |
| 09/13 | CPI Core Index SA | 258.414 | — | 257.93 |
| 09/13 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.10% |
| 09/13 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | -0.20% |
| 09/13 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 203k |
| 09/13 | Continuing Claims | 1710k | — | 1707k |
| 09/13 | Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 09/13 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58 |
| 09/13 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$185.0b | — | -$76.9b |
| 09/14 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% |
| 09/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% |
| 09/14 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.50% | — | 0.60% |
| 09/14 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.50% |
| 09/14 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.00% |
| 09/14 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.10% |
| 09/14 | Import Price Index YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.80% |
| 09/14 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.50% |
| 09/14 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 4.30% |
| 09/14 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 09/14 | Capacity Utilization | 78.20% | — | 78.10% |
| 09/14 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.30% |
| 09/14 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.10% |
| 09/14 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 96.6 | — | 96.2 |
| 09/14 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 110.3 |
| 09/14 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.1 |
| 09/14 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% |
| 09/14 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% |