This week’s risk-on trade is taking a breather in early trading, with Treasury prices unchanged to slightly higher and S&P 500 futures down 4 points.  The positive tone in risk markets this week has been enough to re-ignite market speculation for another rate hike in 2017.  As of last Friday, Bloomberg was showing a 27% probability of a December hike (as implied by futures, options, and OIS), but that figure has jumped to 39% this morning following stronger-than-expected inflation data from the U.K., China, and Japan in recent days (i.e., another speculative global reflation trade). While the Fed is widely expected to move forward with balance sheet reduction this month, another rate hike will likely require a higher degree of confidence that the recent inflation trend is indeed transitory. The July FOMC minutes revealed a growing divide within the FOMC with regards to just how long inflation will hold below the Fed’s target.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPrior
09/13/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications8-Sep9.90%3.30%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Final Demand MoMAug0.30%0.20%-0.10%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMAug0.20%0.10%-0.10%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMAug0.10%0.20%0.00%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Final Demand YoYAug2.50%2.40%1.90%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYAug2.10%2.00%1.80%
09/13/2017 08:30PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYAug1.90%1.90%
09/13/2017 14:00Monthly Budget StatementAug-$119.0b-$107.1b
09/14/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims9-Sep300k298k
09/14/2017 08:30Continuing Claims2-Sep1965k1940k
09/14/2017 08:30CPI MoMAug0.30%0.10%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMAug0.20%0.10%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI YoYAug1.80%1.70%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYAug1.60%1.70%
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Core Index SAAug252.336251.914
09/14/2017 08:30CPI Index NSAAug245.351244.786
09/14/2017 08:30Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYAug1.10%
09/14/2017 08:30Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYAug0.70%
09/14/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort10-Sep52.6
09/15/2017 08:30Empire ManufacturingSep1825.2
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Advance MoMAug0.10%0.60%
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMAug0.50%0.50%
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasAug0.30%0.50%
09/15/2017 08:30Retail Sales Control GroupAug0.20%0.60%
09/15/2017 09:15Industrial Production MoMAug0.10%0.20%
09/15/2017 09:15Capacity UtilizationAug76.70%76.70%
09/15/2017 09:15Manufacturing (SIC) ProductionAug0.30%-0.10%
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. SentimentSep P9596.8
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. Current ConditionsSep P110.9
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. ExpectationsSep P87.7
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationSep P2.60%
09/15/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationSep P2.50%
09/15/2017 10:00Business InventoriesJul0.20%0.50%
09/18/2017 10:00NAHB Housing Market IndexSep6768
09/18/2017 16:00Total Net TIC FlowsJul$7.7b
09/18/2017 16:00Net Long-term TIC FlowsJul$34.4b
09/19/2017 08:30Housing StartsAug1180k1155k
09/19/2017 08:30Housing Starts MoMAug2.20%-4.80%
09/19/2017 08:30Building PermitsAug1210k1223k
09/19/2017 08:30Building Permits MoMAug-1.60%-4.10%
09/19/2017 08:30Current Account Balance2Q-$112.4b-$116.8b
09/19/2017 08:30Import Price Index MoMAug0.30%0.10%
09/19/2017 08:30Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMAug0.00%
09/19/2017 08:30Import Price Index YoYAug1.50%
09/19/2017 08:30Export Price Index MoMJul0.20%0.40%
09/19/2017 08:30Export Price Index YoYAug0.80%
09/20/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications15-Sep9.90%
09/20/2017 10:00Existing Home SalesAug5.48m5.44m
09/20/2017 10:00Existing Home Sales MoMAug0.70%-1.30%
09/20/2017 14:00FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)20-Sep1.25%1.25%
09/20/2017 14:00FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)20-Sep1.00%1.00%
09/21/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims16-Sep
09/21/2017 08:30Continuing Claims9-Sep
09/21/2017 08:30Philadelphia Fed Business OutlookSep17.118.9
09/21/2017 09:00FHFA House Price Index MoMJul0.10%
09/21/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort17-Sep
09/21/2017 09:45Bloomberg Economic ExpectationsSep54
09/21/2017 10:00Leading IndexAug0.20%0.30%
09/21/2017 12:00Household Change in Net Worth2Q$2347b
09/22/2017 09:45Markit US Manufacturing PMISep P52.8
09/22/2017 09:45Markit US Services PMISep P56
09/22/2017 09:45Markit US Composite PMISep P55.3