This week’s risk-on trade is taking a breather in early trading, with Treasury prices unchanged to slightly higher and S&P 500 futures down 4 points. The positive tone in risk markets this week has been enough to re-ignite market speculation for another rate hike in 2017. As of last Friday, Bloomberg was showing a 27% probability of a December hike (as implied by futures, options, and OIS), but that figure has jumped to 39% this morning following stronger-than-expected inflation data from the U.K., China, and Japan in recent days (i.e., another speculative global reflation trade). While the Fed is widely expected to move forward with balance sheet reduction this month, another rate hike will likely require a higher degree of confidence that the recent inflation trend is indeed transitory. The July FOMC minutes revealed a growing divide within the FOMC with regards to just how long inflation will hold below the Fed’s target.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | |
| 09/13/2017 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 8-Sep | — | 9.90% | 3.30% |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Aug | 0.30% | 0.20% | -0.10% |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Aug | 0.20% | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Aug | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Aug | 2.50% | 2.40% | 1.90% |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Aug | 2.10% | 2.00% | 1.80% |
| 09/13/2017 08:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Aug | — | 1.90% | 1.90% |
| 09/13/2017 14:00 | Monthly Budget Statement | Aug | -$119.0b | — | -$107.1b |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 9-Sep | 300k | — | 298k |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 2-Sep | 1965k | — | 1940k |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI YoY | Aug | 1.80% | — | 1.70% |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Aug | 1.60% | — | 1.70% |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Core Index SA | Aug | 252.336 | — | 251.914 |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | CPI Index NSA | Aug | 245.351 | — | 244.786 |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Aug | — | — | 1.10% |
| 09/14/2017 08:30 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Aug | — | — | 0.70% |
| 09/14/2017 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 10-Sep | — | — | 52.6 |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Sep | 18 | — | 25.2 |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.60% |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Aug | 0.50% | — | 0.50% |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 09/15/2017 08:30 | Retail Sales Control Group | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.60% |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Industrial Production MoM | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.20% |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Capacity Utilization | Aug | 76.70% | — | 76.70% |
| 09/15/2017 09:15 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | Aug | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Sep P | 95 | — | 96.8 |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Sep P | — | — | 110.9 |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Sep P | — | — | 87.7 |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Sep P | — | — | 2.60% |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Sep P | — | — | 2.50% |
| 09/15/2017 10:00 | Business Inventories | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.50% |
| 09/18/2017 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Sep | 67 | — | 68 |
| 09/18/2017 16:00 | Total Net TIC Flows | Jul | — | — | $7.7b |
| 09/18/2017 16:00 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | Jul | — | — | $34.4b |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Housing Starts | Aug | 1180k | — | 1155k |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Housing Starts MoM | Aug | 2.20% | — | -4.80% |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Building Permits | Aug | 1210k | — | 1223k |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Building Permits MoM | Aug | -1.60% | — | -4.10% |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Current Account Balance | 2Q | -$112.4b | — | -$116.8b |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Import Price Index MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | Aug | — | — | 0.00% |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Import Price Index YoY | Aug | — | — | 1.50% |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Export Price Index MoM | Jul | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 09/19/2017 08:30 | Export Price Index YoY | Aug | — | — | 0.80% |
| 09/20/2017 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 15-Sep | — | — | 9.90% |
| 09/20/2017 10:00 | Existing Home Sales | Aug | 5.48m | — | 5.44m |
| 09/20/2017 10:00 | Existing Home Sales MoM | Aug | 0.70% | — | -1.30% |
| 09/20/2017 14:00 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 20-Sep | 1.25% | — | 1.25% |
| 09/20/2017 14:00 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 20-Sep | 1.00% | — | 1.00% |
| 09/21/2017 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 16-Sep | — | — | — |
| 09/21/2017 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 9-Sep | — | — | — |
| 09/21/2017 08:30 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | Sep | 17.1 | — | 18.9 |
| 09/21/2017 09:00 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | Jul | — | — | 0.10% |
| 09/21/2017 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 17-Sep | — | — | — |
| 09/21/2017 09:45 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | Sep | — | — | 54 |
| 09/21/2017 10:00 | Leading Index | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 09/21/2017 12:00 | Household Change in Net Worth | 2Q | — | — | $2347b |
| 09/22/2017 09:45 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Sep P | — | — | 52.8 |
| 09/22/2017 09:45 | Markit US Services PMI | Sep P | — | — | 56 |
| 09/22/2017 09:45 | Markit US Composite PMI | Sep P | — | — | 55.3 |