September 13, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher this morning alongside all three US equity indices as trade tensions appear to be easing. The Xinhau News Agency reported that China is encouraging purchases of specific US farm products which will be excluded from additional tariffs. The move comes ahead of high-level trade talks that are scheduled for next month where President Trump signaled that he would consider an intern trade deal, although a full agreement would be preferred.

Headline retail sales beat expectations by rising .4% MoM compared to consensus estimates of .2%. Farther down the report, the closely watched control group was in line with forecasts at .3%. The control group excludes food, gas, building materials, and auto, and this metric is what is used in the GDP calculation. While retail sales growth has decelerated from August’s 1% increase, the overall trend remains strong.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/9/2019 Consumer Credit $16.000b $23.294b $14.596b $13.781b
9/10/2019 NFIB Small Business Optimism 103.5 103.1 104.7
9/10/2019 JOLTS Job Openings 7331 7217 7348 7248
9/11/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.00% -3.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.40% -0.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.70% 1.80% 1.70%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.30% 2.10%
9/11/2019 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 1.90% 1.70%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
9/11/2019 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.30% -0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI MoM 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
9/12/2019 CPI YoY 1.80% 1.70% 1.80%
9/12/2019 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.30% 2.40% 2.20%
9/12/2019 CPI Core Index SA 264.1 264.245 263.569
9/12/2019 CPI Index NSA 256.586 256.558 256.571
9/12/2019 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 1.20% 0.80% 0.90%
9/12/2019 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 1.50% 1.30% 1.40%
9/12/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 204k 217k 219k
9/12/2019 Continuing Claims 1675k 1670k 1662k 1674k
9/12/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.2 63.4
9/12/2019 Monthly Budget Statement -$200.0b -$200.3b -$214.1b
9/13/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.50% -0.50% 0.20% 0.10%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.10% 0.00% 0.00%
9/13/2019 Import Price Index YoY -2.00% -2.00% -1.80% -1.90%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.30% -0.60% 0.20%
9/13/2019 Export Price Index YoY -1.40% -0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.70% 0.80%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 0.00% 1.00%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.20% 0.10% 0.90%
9/13/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.30% 1.00% 0.90%
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 90.8 92 89.8
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 107.8 106.9 105.3
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 85.2 82.4 79.9
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.80% 2.70%
9/13/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.30% 2.60%
9/13/2019 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.40% 0.00%
9/13/2019 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey




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