Treasury yields are higher this morning alongside all three US equity indices as trade tensions appear to be easing. The Xinhau News Agency reported that China is encouraging purchases of specific US farm products which will be excluded from additional tariffs. The move comes ahead of high-level trade talks that are scheduled for next month where President Trump signaled that he would consider an intern trade deal, although a full agreement would be preferred.
Headline retail sales beat expectations by rising .4% MoM compared to consensus estimates of .2%. Farther down the report, the closely watched control group was in line with forecasts at .3%. The control group excludes food, gas, building materials, and auto, and this metric is what is used in the GDP calculation. While retail sales growth has decelerated from August’s 1% increase, the overall trend remains strong.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
9/9/2019 | Consumer Credit | $16.000b | $23.294b | $14.596b | $13.781b |
9/10/2019 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 103.5 | 103.1 | 104.7 | — |
9/10/2019 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7331 | 7217 | 7348 | 7248 |
9/11/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.00% | -3.10% | — |
9/11/2019 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
9/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | -0.10% | — |
9/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | -0.10% | — |
9/11/2019 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.70% | — |
9/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.10% | — |
9/11/2019 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 1.90% | 1.70% | — |
9/11/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
9/11/2019 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | 0.30% | -0.30% | — |
9/12/2019 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
9/12/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
9/12/2019 | CPI YoY | 1.80% | 1.70% | 1.80% | — |
9/12/2019 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.40% | 2.20% | — |
9/12/2019 | CPI Core Index SA | 264.1 | 264.245 | 263.569 | — |
9/12/2019 | CPI Index NSA | 256.586 | 256.558 | 256.571 | — |
9/12/2019 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 1.20% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
9/12/2019 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 1.50% | 1.30% | 1.40% |
9/12/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 204k | 217k | 219k |
9/12/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1675k | 1670k | 1662k | 1674k |
9/12/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 63.2 | 63.4 | — |
9/12/2019 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$200.0b | -$200.3b | -$214.1b | — |
9/13/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.50% | -0.50% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
9/13/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
9/13/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -2.00% | -2.00% | -1.80% | -1.90% |
9/13/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.30% | -0.60% | 0.20% | — |
9/13/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | -1.40% | -0.90% | — |
9/13/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
9/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 1.00% | — |
9/13/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.90% | — |
9/13/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | 0.30% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
9/13/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 90.8 | 92 | 89.8 | — |
9/13/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 107.8 | 106.9 | 105.3 | — |
9/13/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85.2 | 82.4 | 79.9 | — |
9/13/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | 2.80% | 2.70% | — |
9/13/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | 2.30% | 2.60% | — |
9/13/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.00% | — |
9/13/2019 | Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey |
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