September 13, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher this morning alongside all three US equity indices as trade tensions appear to be easing. The Xinhau News Agency reported that China is encouraging purchases of specific US farm products which will be excluded from additional tariffs. The move comes ahead of high-level trade talks that are scheduled for next month where President Trump signaled that he would consider an intern trade deal, although a full agreement would be preferred.

Headline retail sales beat expectations by rising .4% MoM compared to consensus estimates of .2%. Farther down the report, the closely watched control group was in line with forecasts at .3%. The control group excludes food, gas, building materials, and auto, and this metric is what is used in the GDP calculation. While retail sales growth has decelerated from August’s 1% increase, the overall trend remains strong.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/9/2019	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	$23.294b	$14.596b	$13.781b
9/10/2019	NFIB Small Business Optimism	103.5	103.1	104.7	—
9/10/2019	JOLTS Job Openings	7331	7217	7348	7248
9/11/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	2.00%	-3.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.00%	0.10%	0.20%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.30%	-0.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.40%	-0.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Final Demand YoY	1.70%	1.80%	1.70%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.20%	2.30%	2.10%	—
9/11/2019	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	1.90%	1.70%	—
9/11/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	—
9/11/2019	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	0.30%	-0.30%	—
9/12/2019	CPI MoM	0.10%	0.10%	0.30%	—
9/12/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	0.30%	0.30%	—
9/12/2019	CPI YoY	1.80%	1.70%	1.80%	—
9/12/2019	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	2.40%	2.20%	—
9/12/2019	CPI Core Index SA	264.1	264.245	263.569	—
9/12/2019	CPI Index NSA	256.586	256.558	256.571	—
9/12/2019	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	1.20%	0.80%	0.90%
9/12/2019	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	1.50%	1.30%	1.40%
9/12/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	204k	217k	219k
9/12/2019	Continuing Claims	1675k	1670k	1662k	1674k
9/12/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	63.2	63.4	—
9/12/2019	Monthly Budget Statement	-$200.0b	-$200.3b	-$214.1b	—
9/13/2019	Import Price Index MoM	-0.50%	-0.50%	0.20%	0.10%
9/13/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	—
9/13/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-2.00%	-2.00%	-1.80%	-1.90%
9/13/2019	Export Price Index MoM	-0.30%	-0.60%	0.20%	—
9/13/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.40%	-0.90%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	0.40%	0.70%	0.80%
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	0.00%	1.00%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.20%	0.10%	0.90%	—
9/13/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	0.30%	1.00%	0.90%
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	90.8	92	89.8	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	107.8	106.9	105.3	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	85.2	82.4	79.9	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	2.80%	2.70%	—
9/13/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	2.30%	2.60%	—
9/13/2019	Business Inventories	0.30%	0.40%	0.00%	—
9/13/2019	Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey

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