September 13, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher this morning alongside all three US equity indices as trade tensions appear to be easing. The Xinhau News Agency reported that China is encouraging purchases of specific US farm products which will be excluded from additional tariffs. The move comes ahead of high-level trade talks that are scheduled for next month where President Trump signaled that he would consider an intern trade deal, although a full agreement would be preferred.

Headline retail sales beat expectations by rising .4% MoM compared to consensus estimates of .2%. Farther down the report, the closely watched control group was in line with forecasts at .3%. The control group excludes food, gas, building materials, and auto, and this metric is what is used in the GDP calculation. While retail sales growth has decelerated from August’s 1% increase, the overall trend remains strong.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

9/9/2019Consumer Credit$16.000b$23.294b$14.596b$13.781b
9/10/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103.5103.1104.7
9/10/2019JOLTS Job Openings7331721773487248
9/11/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%-3.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%0.10%0.20%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%-0.10%
9/11/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.70%1.80%1.70%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.30%2.10%
9/11/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.90%1.70%
9/11/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
9/11/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%-0.30%
9/12/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.10%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
9/12/2019CPI YoY1.80%1.70%1.80%
9/12/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.40%2.20%
9/12/2019CPI Core Index SA264.1264.245263.569
9/12/2019CPI Index NSA256.586256.558256.571
9/12/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.20%0.80%0.90%
9/12/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%1.30%1.40%
9/12/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k204k217k219k
9/12/2019Continuing Claims1675k1670k1662k1674k
9/12/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.263.4
9/12/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$200.0b-$200.3b-$214.1b
9/13/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.50%-0.50%0.20%0.10%
9/13/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%0.00%
9/13/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.00%-2.00%-1.80%-1.90%
9/13/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.30%-0.60%0.20%
9/13/2019Export Price Index YoY-1.40%-0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.40%0.70%0.80%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%0.00%1.00%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%0.10%0.90%
9/13/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.30%1.00%0.90%
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment90.89289.8
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions107.8106.9105.3
9/13/2019U. of Mich. Expectations85.282.479.9
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%2.70%
9/13/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%2.60%
9/13/2019Business Inventories0.30%0.40%0.00%
9/13/2019Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey




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