September 13, 2021 Headlines

Long-end yields are lower to start the week despite gains in equities as market participants prepare for tomorrow’s CPI report. The overnight trading session was relatively quiet, and besides tomorrow’s CPI report for August, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released on Friday. The index plunged in July and August to Spring 2020 levels, with respondents listing the delta variant and inflation as primary concerns. Short-term fixed income remains under pressure as the Treasury Department accelerates net Treasury bill paydowns given the debt ceiling expiration. As a result, demand for the Fed’s overnight repo facility is expected to remain at historically high levels over the next several weeks. Speaking of the Fed, the blackout period has begun for public appearances/comments ahead of the September 22 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
09/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$200.0b
09/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism9999.7
09/14/21CPI MoM0.40%0.50%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
09/14/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%4.30%
09/14/21CPI Index NSA273.822273.003
09/14/21CPI Core Index SA279.74279.054
09/14/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%
09/14/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.70%-0.90%
09/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
09/15/21Empire Manufacturing1818.3
09/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%
09/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.10%
09/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%10.20%
09/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.40%1.30%
09/15/21Export Price Index YoY17.20%
09/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.40%0.90%
09/15/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.10%
09/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%1.40%
09/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.80%-1.10%
09/16/21Initial Jobless Claims320k310k
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%-0.40%
09/16/21Continuing Claims2740k2783k
09/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1919.4
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%-0.70%
09/16/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.10%-1.00%
09/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.9
09/16/21Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
09/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b
09/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b
09/17/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7270.3
09/17/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions78.5
09/17/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.1
09/17/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
09/17/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.