September 13, 2021 Headlines

Long-end yields are lower to start the week despite gains in equities as market participants prepare for tomorrow’s CPI report. The overnight trading session was relatively quiet, and besides tomorrow’s CPI report for August, the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will be released on Friday. The index plunged in July and August to Spring 2020 levels, with respondents listing the delta variant and inflation as primary concerns. Short-term fixed income remains under pressure as the Treasury Department accelerates net Treasury bill paydowns given the debt ceiling expiration. As a result, demand for the Fed’s overnight repo facility is expected to remain at historically high levels over the next several weeks. Speaking of the Fed, the blackout period has begun for public appearances/comments ahead of the September 22 FOMC meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$200.0b
09/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism9999.7
09/14/21CPI MoM0.40%0.50%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
09/14/21CPI YoY5.30%5.40%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%4.30%
09/14/21CPI Index NSA273.822273.003
09/14/21CPI Core Index SA279.74279.054
09/14/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.20%
09/14/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.70%-0.90%
09/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
09/15/21Empire Manufacturing1818.3
09/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.30%0.30%
09/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.40%0.10%
09/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%10.20%
09/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.40%1.30%
09/15/21Export Price Index YoY17.20%
09/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.40%0.90%
09/15/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.10%
09/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%1.40%
09/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.80%-1.10%
09/16/21Initial Jobless Claims320k310k
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%-0.40%
09/16/21Continuing Claims2740k2783k
09/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1919.4
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%-0.70%
09/16/21Retail Sales Control Group-0.10%-1.00%
09/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.9
09/16/21Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
09/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b
09/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b
09/17/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7270.3
09/17/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions78.5
09/17/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.1
09/17/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
09/17/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

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