September 13, 2023 Headlines

The August CPI report revealed a bigger-than-expected increase in core inflation versus the prior month. Core prices rose 0.3% m/m versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, the first acceleration of the monthly change in six months. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 4.3%, as expected and down from a 4.7% pace the prior month. Within the core figure, services excluding shelter costs, an area of emphasis from Fed Chair Powell this year, rose 0.5% in August, the most since September 2022. While today’s report won’t likely change FOMC participant plans for a pause at next week’s meeting, the strength in core services inflation keeps November very much on the table for another hike. The reaction in front-end Treasuries is relatively muted so far given the unlikely impact on next week’s FOMC decision, but stickier core prices increases risks of more restrictive monetary policy over the next several months.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/13/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.80% -2.90%
9/13/2023 CPI MoM 0.60% 0.60% 0.20%
9/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.20%
9/13/2023 CPI YoY 3.60% 3.70% 3.20%
9/13/2023 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.30% 4.30% 4.70%
9/13/2023 CPI Index NSA 306.976 307.026 305.691
9/13/2023 CPI Core Index SA 309.381 309.661 308.801
9/13/2023 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.50% 1.10%
9/13/2023 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.30% 0.20%
9/13/2023 Monthly Budget Statement -$232.5b -$219.6b
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.10% 0.70%
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% 1.00%
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas -0.10% 1.00%
9/14/2023 Retail Sales Control Group -0.10% 1.00%
9/14/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 216k
9/14/2023 Continuing Claims 1693k 1679k
9/14/2023 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.40% 0.30%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.30%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20%
9/14/2023 PPI Final Demand YoY 1.30% 0.80%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.40%
9/14/2023 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 2.70% 2.70%
9/14/2023 Business Inventories 0.10% 0.00%
9/15/2023 Import Price Index MoM 0.30% 0.40%
9/15/2023 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.00% 0.00%
9/15/2023 Import Price Index YoY -2.90% -4.40%
9/15/2023 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.70%
9/15/2023 Export Price Index YoY -6.80% -7.90%
9/15/2023 Empire Manufacturing -10 -19
9/15/2023 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 1.00%
9/15/2023 Capacity Utilization 79.30% 79.30%
9/15/2023 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.10% 0.50%
9/15/2023 U. of Mich. Sentiment 69 69.5
9/15/2023 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 74.7 75.7
9/15/2023 U. of Mich. Expectations 65 65.5
9/15/2023 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.50% 3.50%
9/15/2023 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%
9/18/2023 New York Fed Services Business Activity 0.6
9/18/2023 NAHB Housing Market Index 50 50
9/18/2023 Net Long-term TIC Flows $195.9b
9/18/2023 Total Net TIC Flows $147.8b
9/19/2023 Building Permits 1450k 1442k 1443k
9/19/2023 Housing Starts 1440k 1452k
9/19/2023 Housing Starts MoM -0.80% 3.90%
9/19/2023 Building Permits MoM 0.50% 0.10%
9/20/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications -0.80%
9/20/2023 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.50% 5.50%
9/20/2023 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.25% 5.25%
9/20/2023 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.40%


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