Treasury prices are again higher this morning following a weaker than expected CPI print. Inflation for the month of August came in at 0.2% month over month vs the consensus median of 0.03%. Core CPI, excludes food and energy, missed expectations by 0.1% as well, coming in at 0.1% vs 0.2%. Compared to this point last year, inflation is up 2.7% on a broad basis, while core inflation has increased 2.2%. The slowdown in August was driven by lower apparel costs, which saw the largest decline in seven decades, as well as a decline in medical costs. The pullback in inflation shown over the past couple of days should mean that there will not be an increased sense of urgency for the Fed to increase the gradual pace of rate hikes, but at the same time the market still expects for a hike later this month.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/10/2018Consumer Credit$14.000b$16.640b$10.211b$8.463b
09/11/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism108108.8107.9
09/11/2018JOLTS Job Openings6675693966626822
09/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.60%0.70%
09/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%
09/12/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.80%-0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%-0.10%0.00%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.10%0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.20%2.80%3.30%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.30%2.70%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.80%
09/12/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
09/13/2018CPI MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI YoY2.80%2.70%2.90%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.20%2.40%
09/13/2018CPI Index NSA252.396252.146252.006
09/13/2018CPI Core Index SA258.414258.141257.93
09/13/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.50%0.10%
09/13/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%-0.20%-0.10%
09/13/2018Initial Jobless Claims210k204k203k205k
09/13/2018Continuing Claims1710k1696k1707k1711k
09/13/2018Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey (Table)
09/13/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort5958
09/13/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$211.0b-$107.7b
09/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.50%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.60%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.60%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%
09/14/2018Import Price Index MoM-0.20%0.00%
09/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.10%
09/14/2018Import Price Index YoY4.10%4.80%
09/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.00%-0.50%
09/14/2018Export Price Index YoY4.30%
09/14/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.10%
09/14/2018Capacity Utilization78.20%78.10%
09/14/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.30%
09/14/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.10%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment96.696.2
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions110.3
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.1
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%