Treasury prices are again higher this morning following a weaker than expected CPI print. Inflation for the month of August came in at 0.2% month over month vs the consensus median of 0.03%. Core CPI, excludes food and energy, missed expectations by 0.1% as well, coming in at 0.1% vs 0.2%. Compared to this point last year, inflation is up 2.7% on a broad basis, while core inflation has increased 2.2%. The slowdown in August was driven by lower apparel costs, which saw the largest decline in seven decades, as well as a decline in medical costs. The pullback in inflation shown over the past couple of days should mean that there will not be an increased sense of urgency for the Fed to increase the gradual pace of rate hikes, but at the same time the market still expects for a hike later this month.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/10/2018 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | $16.640b | $10.211b | $8.463b |
| 09/11/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 108 | 108.8 | 107.9 | — |
| 09/11/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6675 | 6939 | 6662 | 6822 |
| 09/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.70% | — |
| 09/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 09/12/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.80% | -0.10% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.20% | 2.80% | 3.30% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | 2.30% | 2.70% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.80% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 09/13/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.80% | 2.70% | 2.90% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | 2.20% | 2.40% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 252.396 | 252.146 | 252.006 | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 258.414 | 258.141 | 257.93 | — |
| 09/13/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.50% | 0.10% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.20% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 09/13/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | 204k | 203k | 205k |
| 09/13/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1710k | 1696k | 1707k | 1711k |
| 09/13/2018 | Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 09/13/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 59 | 58 | — |
| 09/13/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$211.0b | — | -$107.7b | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 4.30% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.20% | — | 78.10% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 96.6 | — | 96.2 | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 110.3 | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.1 | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |