Inflation accelerated at a slower than expected pace in August according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.1% m/m, the lowest monthly growth rate since February and down from 0.3% the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, the core reading was up 4%, still well above the Fed’s 2% long-run target and heavily impacted by base effects. A decline in transportation prices was the primary culprit for the August miss, including a 9.1% decline in airline fares. As always, we’re cautious to place too much emphasis on one data point as it relates to a trend, but downside misses for both the August jobs and CPI reports does likely give the Fed doves more ammo to push a taper announcement to the November or December meeting. Treasury yields were higher overnight on supply pressures (foreign issuance) are now slightly lower across much of the curve following the CPI miss. S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% as of 9:00 am EDT.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
09/13/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$175.0b | -$170.6b | -$200.0b | — |
09/14/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 99 | 100.1 | 99.7 | — |
09/14/21 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
09/14/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
09/14/21 | CPI YoY | 5.30% | 5.30% | 5.40% | — |
09/14/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.20% | 4.00% | 4.30% | — |
09/14/21 | CPI Index NSA | 273.835 | 273.567 | 273.003 | — |
09/14/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 279.733 | 279.338 | 279.054 | — |
09/14/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | -0.90% | -1.20% | — |
09/14/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | -0.90% | -0.70% | -0.90% |
09/15/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.90% | — |
09/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | — | 18.3 | — |
09/15/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
09/15/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
09/15/21 | Import Price Index YoY | 9.40% | — | 10.20% | — |
09/15/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.40% | — | 1.30% | — |
09/15/21 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 17.20% | — |
09/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.90% | — |
09/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 76.40% | — | 76.10% | — |
09/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
09/16/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.70% | — | -1.10% | — |
09/16/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 323k | — | 310k | — |
09/16/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.40% | — |
09/16/21 | Continuing Claims | 2740k | — | 2783k | — |
09/16/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 19 | — | 19.4 | — |
09/16/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.00% | — | -0.70% | — |
09/16/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.00% | — | -1.00% | — |
09/16/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.9 | — |
09/16/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
09/16/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $31.5b | — |
09/16/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $110.9b | — |
09/17/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 72 | — | 70.3 | — |
09/17/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 78.5 | — |
09/17/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 65.1 | — |
09/17/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.70% | — | 4.60% | — |
09/17/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
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