September 14, 2021 Headlines

Inflation accelerated at a slower than expected pace in August according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.1% m/m, the lowest monthly growth rate since February and down from 0.3% the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, the core reading was up 4%, still well above the Fed’s 2% long-run target and heavily impacted by base effects. A decline in transportation prices was the primary culprit for the August miss, including a 9.1% decline in airline fares. As always, we’re cautious to place too much emphasis on one data point as it relates to a trend, but downside misses for both the August jobs and CPI reports does likely give the Fed doves more ammo to push a taper announcement to the November or December meeting. Treasury yields were higher overnight on supply pressures (foreign issuance) are now slightly lower across much of the curve following the CPI miss. S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% as of 9:00 am EDT.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$170.6b-$200.0b
09/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99100.199.7
09/14/21CPI MoM0.40%0.30%0.50%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%
09/14/21CPI YoY5.30%5.30%5.40%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%4.00%4.30%
09/14/21CPI Index NSA273.835273.567273.003
09/14/21CPI Core Index SA279.733279.338279.054
09/14/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.90%-1.20%
09/14/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.90%-0.70%-0.90%
09/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
09/15/21Empire Manufacturing1818.3
09/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.20%0.30%
09/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
09/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%10.20%
09/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.40%1.30%
09/15/21Export Price Index YoY17.20%
09/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.90%
09/15/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.10%
09/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%1.40%
09/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.70%-1.10%
09/16/21Initial Jobless Claims323k310k
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%-0.40%
09/16/21Continuing Claims2740k2783k
09/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1919.4
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%-0.70%
09/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.00%-1.00%
09/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.9
09/16/21Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
09/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b
09/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b
09/17/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7270.3
09/17/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions78.5
09/17/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.1
09/17/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
09/17/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%


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