September 14, 2022 Headlines

Yesterday was yet another brutal day for financial markets following another hot inflation report. Major equity indices finished the day down 4-5%, and Treasuries blew through any sense of support levels, with the 2-year yield surging nearly 20 basis points to 3.76%. Treasury yields are up another 5-6 basis points across the curve in the immediate aftermath of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) release, which showed wholesale inflation largely in line with expectations (headline -0.1% m/m and core +0.2% m/m). Equity futures are pointing to a very modest rebound a little less than an hour before the open. Yesterday’s move in Treasury rates was compounded in other markets, with Mortgage News Daily reporting a 30 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conventional) to 6.28%, matching the previous 2022 high set on June 14. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey released this morning showed the average 30-year rate rising 7 basis points to 6.01%, the highest since 2008.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/13/22	NFIB Small Business Optimism	90.8	91.8	89.9	—
09/13/22	CPI MoM	-0.10%	0.10%	0.00%	—
09/13/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	0.60%	0.30%	—
09/13/22	CPI YoY	8.10%	8.30%	8.50%	—
09/13/22	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	6.10%	6.30%	5.90%	—
09/13/22	CPI Index NSA	295.588	296.171	296.276	—
09/13/22	CPI Core Index SA	296.25	296.95	295.275	—
09/13/22	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	-2.80%	-3.00%	—
09/13/22	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	-3.40%	-3.60%	—
09/13/22	Monthly Budget Statement	-$217.0b	-$219.6b	-$170.6b	—
09/14/22	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.20%	-0.80%	—
09/14/22	PPI Final Demand MoM	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.50%	-0.40%
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	0.40%	0.20%	0.30%
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	0.20%	0.20%	0.10%
09/14/22	PPI Final Demand YoY	8.80%	8.70%	9.80%	—
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	7.00%	7.30%	7.60%	7.70%
09/14/22	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	5.50%	5.60%	5.80%	—
09/15/22	Initial Jobless Claims	227k	—	222k	—
09/15/22	Continuing Claims	1478k	—	1473k	—
09/15/22	Empire Manufacturing	-12.8	—	-31.3	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.10%	—	0.00%	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.00%	—	0.40%	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.50%	—	0.70%	—
09/15/22	Retail Sales Control Group	0.50%	—	0.80%	—
09/15/22	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	2.5	—	6.2	—
09/15/22	Import Price Index MoM	-1.30%	—	-1.40%	—
09/15/22	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.60%	—	-0.70%	—
09/15/22	Import Price Index YoY	7.70%	—	8.80%	—
09/15/22	Export Price Index MoM	-1.10%	—	-3.30%	—
09/15/22	Export Price Index YoY	12.50%	—	13.10%	—
09/15/22	Industrial Production MoM	0.00%	—	0.60%	—
09/15/22	Capacity Utilization	80.20%	—	80.30%	—
09/15/22	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.10%	—	0.70%	—
09/15/22	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	1.40%	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. Sentiment	60	—	58.2	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	59.4	—	58.6	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. Expectations	59	—	58	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.60%	—	4.80%	—
09/16/22	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—
09/16/22	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$121.8b	—
09/16/22	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$22.1b	—

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