September 14, 2022 Headlines

Yesterday was yet another brutal day for financial markets following another hot inflation report. Major equity indices finished the day down 4-5%, and Treasuries blew through any sense of support levels, with the 2-year yield surging nearly 20 basis points to 3.76%. Treasury yields are up another 5-6 basis points across the curve in the immediate aftermath of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) release, which showed wholesale inflation largely in line with expectations (headline -0.1% m/m and core +0.2% m/m). Equity futures are pointing to a very modest rebound a little less than an hour before the open. Yesterday’s move in Treasury rates was compounded in other markets, with Mortgage News Daily reporting a 30 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conventional) to 6.28%, matching the previous 2022 high set on June 14. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey released this morning showed the average 30-year rate rising 7 basis points to 6.01%, the highest since 2008.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
09/13/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 90.8 91.8 89.9 —
09/13/22 CPI MoM -0.10% 0.10% 0.00% —
09/13/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.60% 0.30% —
09/13/22 CPI YoY 8.10% 8.30% 8.50% —
09/13/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 6.10% 6.30% 5.90% —
09/13/22 CPI Index NSA 295.588 296.171 296.276 —
09/13/22 CPI Core Index SA 296.25 296.95 295.275 —
09/13/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — -2.80% -3.00% —
09/13/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — -3.40% -3.60% —
09/13/22 Monthly Budget Statement -$217.0b -$219.6b -$170.6b —
09/14/22 MBA Mortgage Applications — -1.20% -0.80% —
09/14/22 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.10% -0.10% -0.50% -0.40%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
09/14/22 PPI Final Demand YoY 8.80% 8.70% 9.80% —
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 7.00% 7.30% 7.60% 7.70%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 5.50% 5.60% 5.80% —
09/15/22 Initial Jobless Claims 227k — 222k —
09/15/22 Continuing Claims 1478k — 1473k —
09/15/22 Empire Manufacturing -12.8 — -31.3 —
09/15/22 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.10% — 0.00% —
09/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.00% — 0.40% —
09/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% — 0.70% —
09/15/22 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50% — 0.80% —
09/15/22 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 2.5 — 6.2 —
09/15/22 Import Price Index MoM -1.30% — -1.40% —
09/15/22 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.60% — -0.70% —
09/15/22 Import Price Index YoY 7.70% — 8.80% —
09/15/22 Export Price Index MoM -1.10% — -3.30% —
09/15/22 Export Price Index YoY 12.50% — 13.10% —
09/15/22 Industrial Production MoM 0.00% — 0.60% —
09/15/22 Capacity Utilization 80.20% — 80.30% —
09/15/22 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% — 0.70% —
09/15/22 Business Inventories 0.60% — 1.40% —
09/16/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60 — 58.2 —
09/16/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 59.4 — 58.6 —
09/16/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 59 — 58 —
09/16/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.60% — 4.80% —
09/16/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% — 2.90% —
09/16/22 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $121.8b —
09/16/22 Total Net TIC Flows — — $22.1b —

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