September 14, 2022 Headlines

Yesterday was yet another brutal day for financial markets following another hot inflation report. Major equity indices finished the day down 4-5%, and Treasuries blew through any sense of support levels, with the 2-year yield surging nearly 20 basis points to 3.76%. Treasury yields are up another 5-6 basis points across the curve in the immediate aftermath of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) release, which showed wholesale inflation largely in line with expectations (headline -0.1% m/m and core +0.2% m/m). Equity futures are pointing to a very modest rebound a little less than an hour before the open. Yesterday’s move in Treasury rates was compounded in other markets, with Mortgage News Daily reporting a 30 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conventional) to 6.28%, matching the previous 2022 high set on June 14. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey released this morning showed the average 30-year rate rising 7 basis points to 6.01%, the highest since 2008.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
09/13/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 90.8 91.8 89.9
09/13/22 CPI MoM -0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
09/13/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.60% 0.30%
09/13/22 CPI YoY 8.10% 8.30% 8.50%
09/13/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 6.10% 6.30% 5.90%
09/13/22 CPI Index NSA 295.588 296.171 296.276
09/13/22 CPI Core Index SA 296.25 296.95 295.275
09/13/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -2.80% -3.00%
09/13/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.40% -3.60%
09/13/22 Monthly Budget Statement -$217.0b -$219.6b -$170.6b
09/14/22 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20% -0.80%
09/14/22 PPI Final Demand MoM -0.10% -0.10% -0.50% -0.40%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
09/14/22 PPI Final Demand YoY 8.80% 8.70% 9.80%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 7.00% 7.30% 7.60% 7.70%
09/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 5.50% 5.60% 5.80%
09/15/22 Initial Jobless Claims 227k 222k
09/15/22 Continuing Claims 1478k 1473k
09/15/22 Empire Manufacturing -12.8 -31.3
09/15/22 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.10% 0.00%
09/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.00% 0.40%
09/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 0.70%
09/15/22 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50% 0.80%
09/15/22 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 2.5 6.2
09/15/22 Import Price Index MoM -1.30% -1.40%
09/15/22 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.60% -0.70%
09/15/22 Import Price Index YoY 7.70% 8.80%
09/15/22 Export Price Index MoM -1.10% -3.30%
09/15/22 Export Price Index YoY 12.50% 13.10%
09/15/22 Industrial Production MoM 0.00% 0.60%
09/15/22 Capacity Utilization 80.20% 80.30%
09/15/22 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% 0.70%
09/15/22 Business Inventories 0.60% 1.40%
09/16/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60 58.2
09/16/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 59.4 58.6
09/16/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 59 58
09/16/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.60% 4.80%
09/16/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 2.90%
09/16/22 Net Long-term TIC Flows $121.8b
09/16/22 Total Net TIC Flows $22.1b

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.