September 14, 2022 Headlines

Yesterday was yet another brutal day for financial markets following another hot inflation report. Major equity indices finished the day down 4-5%, and Treasuries blew through any sense of support levels, with the 2-year yield surging nearly 20 basis points to 3.76%. Treasury yields are up another 5-6 basis points across the curve in the immediate aftermath of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) release, which showed wholesale inflation largely in line with expectations (headline -0.1% m/m and core +0.2% m/m). Equity futures are pointing to a very modest rebound a little less than an hour before the open. Yesterday’s move in Treasury rates was compounded in other markets, with Mortgage News Daily reporting a 30 basis point increase in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (conventional) to 6.28%, matching the previous 2022 high set on June 14. Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey released this morning showed the average 30-year rate rising 7 basis points to 6.01%, the highest since 2008.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/13/22NFIB Small Business Optimism90.891.889.9
09/13/22CPI MoM-0.10%0.10%0.00%
09/13/22CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.60%0.30%
09/13/22CPI YoY8.10%8.30%8.50%
09/13/22CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY6.10%6.30%5.90%
09/13/22CPI Index NSA295.588296.171296.276
09/13/22CPI Core Index SA296.25296.95295.275
09/13/22Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.80%-3.00%
09/13/22Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-3.40%-3.60%
09/13/22Monthly Budget Statement-$217.0b-$219.6b-$170.6b
09/14/22MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%-0.80%
09/14/22PPI Final Demand MoM-0.10%-0.10%-0.50%-0.40%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%0.30%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%0.10%
09/14/22PPI Final Demand YoY8.80%8.70%9.80%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY7.00%7.30%7.60%7.70%
09/14/22PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.50%5.60%5.80%
09/15/22Initial Jobless Claims227k222k
09/15/22Continuing Claims1478k1473k
09/15/22Empire Manufacturing-12.8-31.3
09/15/22Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.10%0.00%
09/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%0.40%
09/15/22Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.70%
09/15/22Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.80%
09/15/22Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.56.2
09/15/22Import Price Index MoM-1.30%-1.40%
09/15/22Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.60%-0.70%
09/15/22Import Price Index YoY7.70%8.80%
09/15/22Export Price Index MoM-1.10%-3.30%
09/15/22Export Price Index YoY12.50%13.10%
09/15/22Industrial Production MoM0.00%0.60%
09/15/22Capacity Utilization80.20%80.30%
09/15/22Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%0.70%
09/15/22Business Inventories0.60%1.40%
09/16/22U. of Mich. Sentiment6058.2
09/16/22U. of Mich. Current Conditions59.458.6
09/16/22U. of Mich. Expectations5958
09/16/22U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.80%
09/16/22U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%
09/16/22Net Long-term TIC Flows$121.8b
09/16/22Total Net TIC Flows$22.1b

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