The Treasury curve is roughly 2 bps higher across the curve this morning, with the 10-year cresting just shy of 3%. A rally in global equity markets spurred by renewed optimism surrounding international trade pushed Treasury prices lower overnight and into this morning.

Retail sales in the month of August disappointed, showing a 0.1% increase compared to the survey number of 0.4%. Autos and clothing led the slowdown, declining by 0.8% and 1.7% respectively. The one positive from the retail sales front was an upward revision in July’s numbers to 0.2% to 0.7% for the headline reading.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
09/10/2018Consumer Credit$14.000b$16.640b$10.211b$8.463b
09/11/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism108108.8107.9
09/11/2018JOLTS Job Openings6675693966626822
09/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.70%0.60%0.70%
09/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%
09/12/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-1.80%-0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%-0.10%0.00%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.10%0.10%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%
09/12/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.20%2.80%3.30%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.70%2.30%2.70%
09/12/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.90%2.80%
09/12/2018U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
09/13/2018CPI MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
09/13/2018CPI YoY2.80%2.70%2.90%
09/13/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.20%2.40%
09/13/2018CPI Index NSA252.396252.146252.006
09/13/2018CPI Core Index SA258.414258.141257.93
09/13/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.50%0.10%
09/13/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.20%-0.20%-0.10%
09/13/2018Initial Jobless Claims210k204k203k205k
09/13/2018Continuing Claims1710k1696k1707k1711k
09/13/2018Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey (Table)
09/13/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort5958
09/13/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$211.0b-$214.1b-$107.7b
09/14/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%0.10%0.50%0.70%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.50%0.30%0.60%0.90%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.20%0.60%0.90%
09/14/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.10%0.50%0.80%
09/14/2018Import Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.60%0.00%-0.10%
09/14/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.20%-0.10%-0.20%
09/14/2018Import Price Index YoY4.10%3.70%4.80%4.90%
09/14/2018Export Price Index MoM0.00%-0.10%-0.50%
09/14/2018Export Price Index YoY3.60%4.30%
09/14/2018Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.40%0.10%0.40%
09/14/2018Capacity Utilization78.20%78.10%78.10%77.90%
09/14/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.20%0.30%
09/14/2018Business Inventories0.60%0.10%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment96.696.2
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions110.3
09/14/2018U. of Mich. Expectations87.1
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
09/14/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%