The Treasury curve is roughly 2 bps higher across the curve this morning, with the 10-year cresting just shy of 3%. A rally in global equity markets spurred by renewed optimism surrounding international trade pushed Treasury prices lower overnight and into this morning.
Retail sales in the month of August disappointed, showing a 0.1% increase compared to the survey number of 0.4%. Autos and clothing led the slowdown, declining by 0.8% and 1.7% respectively. The one positive from the retail sales front was an upward revision in July’s numbers to 0.2% to 0.7% for the headline reading.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/10/2018 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | $16.640b | $10.211b | $8.463b |
| 09/11/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 108 | 108.8 | 107.9 | — |
| 09/11/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6675 | 6939 | 6662 | 6822 |
| 09/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.70% | — |
| 09/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 09/12/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -1.80% | -0.10% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | -0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.20% | 2.80% | 3.30% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | 2.30% | 2.70% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.90% | 2.80% | — |
| 09/12/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 09/13/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.80% | 2.70% | 2.90% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.40% | 2.20% | 2.40% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 252.396 | 252.146 | 252.006 | — |
| 09/13/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 258.414 | 258.141 | 257.93 | — |
| 09/13/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.50% | 0.10% | — |
| 09/13/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.20% | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 09/13/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | 204k | 203k | 205k |
| 09/13/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1710k | 1696k | 1707k | 1711k |
| 09/13/2018 | Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 09/13/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 59 | 58 | — |
| 09/13/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$211.0b | -$214.1b | -$107.7b | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 09/14/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.80% |
| 09/14/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.20% | -0.60% | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 09/14/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| 09/14/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 4.10% | 3.70% | 4.80% | 4.90% |
| 09/14/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | -0.50% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 3.60% | 4.30% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.40% |
| 09/14/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.20% | 78.10% | 78.10% | 77.90% |
| 09/14/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 96.6 | — | 96.2 | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 110.3 | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 87.1 | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 09/14/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |