September 15, 2021 Headlines

It was a relatively quiet overnight session as attention shifts from yesterday’s CPI report to next week’s FOMC meeting. Long-end yields are 1-3 basis points lower following softer economic data out of China, and S&P 500 futures are little changed an hour before the open. Consumer spending remains robust despite the spread of the delta variant according to data from the largest banks. A Financial Times article notes that JPMorgan Chase’s debit and credit card spending is up 18-19% versus 2019 (pre-Covid) levels according to Marianne Lake, the company’s head of consumer and community banking. Executives from Wells Fargo relayed similar guidance. Mortgage application activity rose 0.3% last week according to the MBA index. The increase was driven by a 7.5% increase in purchase activity ahead of what is typically expected to be seasonal slowdown. The refinance application index was down 3.2% over the week with the average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates both essentially unchanged.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$170.6b-$200.0b
09/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99100.199.7
09/14/21CPI MoM0.40%0.30%0.50%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%
09/14/21CPI YoY5.30%5.30%5.40%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%4.00%4.30%
09/14/21CPI Index NSA273.835273.567273.003
09/14/21CPI Core Index SA279.733279.338279.054
09/14/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.90%-1.20%
09/14/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.90%-0.70%-0.90%
09/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%-1.90%
09/15/21Empire Manufacturing17.934.318.3
09/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.20%-0.30%0.30%0.40%
09/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%-0.10%0.10%0.30%
09/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.00%10.20%10.30%
09/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.40%1.30%1.10%
09/15/21Export Price Index YoY17.00%16.80%17.20%17.00%
09/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.90%
09/15/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.10%
09/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%1.40%
09/16/21Initial Jobless Claims323k310k
09/16/21Continuing Claims2740k2783k
09/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1919.4
09/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.70%-1.10%
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM-0.10%-0.40%
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%-0.70%
09/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.00%-1.00%
09/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.9
09/16/21Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
09/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b
09/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b
09/17/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7270.3
09/17/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions78.5
09/17/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.1
09/17/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
09/17/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

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