September 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-5 basis points higher as the market digests several economic releases at 8:30am ET. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 213,000 last week, the 5th consecutive weekly decline. For August retail sales, the headline rate was higher than expected (0.3% vs. -0.1% expected), but ex-automobile sales and the control group were both worse than expected at -0.3% and 0.0%, respectively. The control group measure is used in the GDP calculation, and the July figure was revised down to 0.4% from 0.8% previously. Other releases this morning (Empire Manufacturing, Import Price Index, Philadelphia Fed survey) were mixed. Bonds were selling off prior to this morning’s data, and prices are still in negative territory in the early aftermath. Despite the downside miss in retail sales, the weekly jobless claims data still shows no signs of cooling in the labor market.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

9/15/2022Initial Jobless Claims227k213k222k218k
9/15/2022Continuing Claims1478k1403k1473k1401k
9/15/2022Empire Manufacturing-12.9-1.5-31.3
9/15/2022Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.10%0.30%0.00%-0.40%
9/15/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%-0.30%0.40%0.00%
9/15/2022Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.50%0.30%0.70%0.30%
9/15/2022Retail Sales Control Group0.50%0.00%0.80%0.40%
9/15/2022Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.3-9.96.2
9/15/2022Import Price Index MoM-1.30%-1.00%-1.40%-1.50%
9/15/2022Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.60%-0.20%-0.70%
9/15/2022Import Price Index YoY7.70%7.80%8.80%8.70%
9/15/2022Export Price Index MoM-1.10%-1.60%-3.30%-3.70%
9/15/2022Export Price Index YoY12.50%10.80%13.10%12.90%
9/15/2022Industrial Production MoM0.00%0.60%
9/15/2022Capacity Utilization80.20%80.30%
9/15/2022Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.10%0.70%
9/15/2022Business Inventories0.60%1.40%
9/16/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment6058.2
9/16/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions59.458.6
9/16/2022U. of Mich. Expectations5958
9/16/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.80%
9/16/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%2.90%
9/16/2022Net Long-term TIC Flows$121.8b
9/16/2022Total Net TIC Flows$22.1b
9/19/2022NAHB Housing Market Index4849
9/20/2022Building Permits1626k1674k1685k
9/20/2022Building Permits MoM-3.50%-1.30%-0.60%
9/20/2022Housing Starts1460k1446k
9/20/2022Housing Starts MoM1.00%-9.60%
9/21/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%
9/21/2022Existing Home Sales4.73m4.81m
9/21/2022Existing Home Sales MoM-1.80%-5.90%
9/21/2022FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.00%2.25%
9/21/2022FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.25%2.50%
9/21/2022Interest on Reserve Balances Rate2.40%
9/22/2022Current Account Balance-$260.1b-$291.4b
9/22/2022Initial Jobless Claims213k
9/22/2022Continuing Claims1403k
9/22/2022Leading Index0.00%-0.40%
9/22/2022Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity3

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