September 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-5 basis points higher as the market digests several economic releases at 8:30am ET. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 213,000 last week, the 5th consecutive weekly decline. For August retail sales, the headline rate was higher than expected (0.3% vs. -0.1% expected), but ex-automobile sales and the control group were both worse than expected at -0.3% and 0.0%, respectively. The control group measure is used in the GDP calculation, and the July figure was revised down to 0.4% from 0.8% previously. Other releases this morning (Empire Manufacturing, Import Price Index, Philadelphia Fed survey) were mixed. Bonds were selling off prior to this morning’s data, and prices are still in negative territory in the early aftermath. Despite the downside miss in retail sales, the weekly jobless claims data still shows no signs of cooling in the labor market.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/15/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 227k 213k 222k 218k
9/15/2022 Continuing Claims 1478k 1403k 1473k 1401k
9/15/2022 Empire Manufacturing -12.9 -1.5 -31.3 —
9/15/2022 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.10% 0.30% 0.00% -0.40%
9/15/2022 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.00% -0.30% 0.40% 0.00%
9/15/2022 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.50% 0.30% 0.70% 0.30%
9/15/2022 Retail Sales Control Group 0.50% 0.00% 0.80% 0.40%
9/15/2022 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 2.3 -9.9 6.2 —
9/15/2022 Import Price Index MoM -1.30% -1.00% -1.40% -1.50%
9/15/2022 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.60% -0.20% -0.70% —
9/15/2022 Import Price Index YoY 7.70% 7.80% 8.80% 8.70%
9/15/2022 Export Price Index MoM -1.10% -1.60% -3.30% -3.70%
9/15/2022 Export Price Index YoY 12.50% 10.80% 13.10% 12.90%
9/15/2022 Industrial Production MoM 0.00% — 0.60% —
9/15/2022 Capacity Utilization 80.20% — 80.30% —
9/15/2022 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% — 0.70% —
9/15/2022 Business Inventories 0.60% — 1.40% —
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60 — 58.2 —
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 59.4 — 58.6 —
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 59 — 58 —
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.60% — 4.80% —
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% — 2.90% —
9/16/2022 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $121.8b —
9/16/2022 Total Net TIC Flows — — $22.1b —
9/19/2022 NAHB Housing Market Index 48 — 49 —
9/20/2022 Building Permits 1626k — 1674k 1685k
9/20/2022 Building Permits MoM -3.50% — -1.30% -0.60%
9/20/2022 Housing Starts 1460k — 1446k —
9/20/2022 Housing Starts MoM 1.00% — -9.60% —
9/21/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -1.20% —
9/21/2022 Existing Home Sales 4.73m — 4.81m —
9/21/2022 Existing Home Sales MoM -1.80% — -5.90% —
9/21/2022 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 3.00% — 2.25% —
9/21/2022 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 3.25% — 2.50% —
9/21/2022 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate — — 2.40% —
9/22/2022 Current Account Balance -$260.1b — -$291.4b —
9/22/2022 Initial Jobless Claims — — 213k —
9/22/2022 Continuing Claims — — 1403k —
9/22/2022 Leading Index 0.00% — -0.40% —
9/22/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity — — 3 —

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