September 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-5 basis points higher as the market digests several economic releases at 8:30am ET. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 213,000 last week, the 5^th consecutive weekly decline. For August retail sales, the headline rate was higher than expected (0.3% vs. -0.1% expected), but ex-automobile sales and the control group were both worse than expected at -0.3% and 0.0%, respectively. The control group measure is used in the GDP calculation, and the July figure was revised down to 0.4% from 0.8% previously. Other releases this morning (Empire Manufacturing, Import Price Index, Philadelphia Fed survey) were mixed. Bonds were selling off prior to this morning’s data, and prices are still in negative territory in the early aftermath. Despite the downside miss in retail sales, the weekly jobless claims data still shows no signs of cooling in the labor market.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/15/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	227k	213k	222k	218k
9/15/2022	Continuing Claims	1478k	1403k	1473k	1401k
9/15/2022	Empire Manufacturing	-12.9	-1.5	-31.3	—
9/15/2022	Retail Sales Advance MoM	-0.10%	0.30%	0.00%	-0.40%
9/15/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.00%	-0.30%	0.40%	0.00%
9/15/2022	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.50%	0.30%	0.70%	0.30%
9/15/2022	Retail Sales Control Group	0.50%	0.00%	0.80%	0.40%
9/15/2022	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	2.3	-9.9	6.2	—
9/15/2022	Import Price Index MoM	-1.30%	-1.00%	-1.40%	-1.50%
9/15/2022	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.60%	-0.20%	-0.70%	—
9/15/2022	Import Price Index YoY	7.70%	7.80%	8.80%	8.70%
9/15/2022	Export Price Index MoM	-1.10%	-1.60%	-3.30%	-3.70%
9/15/2022	Export Price Index YoY	12.50%	10.80%	13.10%	12.90%
9/15/2022	Industrial Production MoM	0.00%	—	0.60%	—
9/15/2022	Capacity Utilization	80.20%	—	80.30%	—
9/15/2022	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	-0.10%	—	0.70%	—
9/15/2022	Business Inventories	0.60%	—	1.40%	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. Sentiment	60	—	58.2	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	59.4	—	58.6	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. Expectations	59	—	58	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.60%	—	4.80%	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—
9/16/2022	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$121.8b	—
9/16/2022	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$22.1b	—
9/19/2022	NAHB Housing Market Index	48	—	49	—
9/20/2022	Building Permits	1626k	—	1674k	1685k
9/20/2022	Building Permits MoM	-3.50%	—	-1.30%	-0.60%
9/20/2022	Housing Starts	1460k	—	1446k	—
9/20/2022	Housing Starts MoM	1.00%	—	-9.60%	—
9/21/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.20%	—
9/21/2022	Existing Home Sales	4.73m	—	4.81m	—
9/21/2022	Existing Home Sales MoM	-1.80%	—	-5.90%	—
9/21/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	3.00%	—	2.25%	—
9/21/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	3.25%	—	2.50%	—
9/21/2022	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	—	—	2.40%	—
9/22/2022	Current Account Balance	-$260.1b	—	-$291.4b	—
9/22/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	—	—	213k	—
9/22/2022	Continuing Claims	—	—	1403k	—
9/22/2022	Leading Index	0.00%	—	-0.40%	—
9/22/2022	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	—	—	3	—

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