Treasury yields are higher across in response to the volatility in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures surged $12 per barrel when trading began overnight, the biggest intraday increase on record (prices currently +5-7%). A drone attack on a Saudi oil production facilities is affecting approximately 5% of global supply (50% of Saudi production), the single worst supply disruption in history. It’s still uncertain who led the attacks, but Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility.
Beyond geopolitical concerns, markets will be heavily focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25 bps rate cut is still widely expected, and market participants will be paying closer attention to the Fed’s guidance for future actions, particularly the updated Summary of Economic Projections. On the trade front, China is sending a team of trade staffers to Washington this week in preparation for the early October meetings between senior officials from each side.
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
|9/17/2019||Industrial Production MoM||0.20%||—||-0.20%||—|
|9/17/2019||Manufacturing (SIC) Production||0.20%||—||-0.40%||—|
|9/17/2019||NAHB Housing Market Index||66||—||66||—|
|9/17/2019||Net Long-term TIC Flows||—||—||$99.1b||—|
|9/17/2019||Total Net TIC Flows||—||—||$1.7b||—|
|9/18/2019||MBA Mortgage Applications||—||—||2.00%||—|
|9/18/2019||Building Permits MoM||-1.30%||—||8.40%||6.90%|
|9/18/2019||Housing Starts MoM||5.00%||—||-4.00%||—|
|9/18/2019||FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)||2.00%||—||2.25%||—|
|9/18/2019||FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)||1.75%||—||2.00%||—|
|9/18/2019||Interest Rate on Excess Reserves||1.85%||—||2.10%||—|
|9/19/2019||Current Account Balance||-$127.5b||—||-$130.4b||—|
|9/19/2019||Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook||10||—||16.8||—|
|9/19/2019||Initial Jobless Claims||213k||—||204k||—|
|9/19/2019||Bloomberg Consumer Comfort||—||—||63.2||—|
|9/19/2019||Bloomberg Economic Expectations||—||—||48.5||—|
|9/19/2019||Existing Home Sales||5.37m||—||5.42m||—|
|9/19/2019||Existing Home Sales MoM||-0.90%||—||2.50%||—|
|9/20/2019||Household Change in Net Worth||—||—||$4691b||—|
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.