September 16, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher across in response to the volatility in oil markets.  Brent crude oil futures surged $12 per barrel when trading began overnight, the biggest intraday increase on record (prices currently +5-7%). A drone attack on a Saudi oil production facilities is affecting approximately 5% of global supply (50% of Saudi production), the single worst supply disruption in history. It’s still uncertain who led the attacks, but Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. 

Beyond geopolitical concerns, markets will be heavily focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25 bps rate cut is still widely expected, and market participants will be paying closer attention to the Fed’s guidance for future actions, particularly the updated Summary of Economic Projections. On the trade front, China is sending a team of trade staffers to Washington this week in preparation for the early October meetings between senior officials from each side.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

9/16/2019Empire Manufacturing424.8
9/17/2019Industrial Production MoM0.20%-0.20%
9/17/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%-0.40%
9/17/2019Capacity Utilization77.60%77.50%
9/17/2019NAHB Housing Market Index6666
9/17/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$99.1b
9/17/2019Total Net TIC Flows$1.7b
9/18/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%
9/18/2019Building Permits MoM-1.30%8.40%6.90%
9/18/2019Building Permits1300k1336k1317k
9/18/2019Housing Starts1250k1191k
9/18/2019Housing Starts MoM5.00%-4.00%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%2.25%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%2.00%
9/18/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.85%2.10%
9/19/2019Current Account Balance-$127.5b-$130.4b
9/19/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1016.8
9/19/2019Initial Jobless Claims213k204k
9/19/2019Continuing Claims1670k1670k
9/19/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.2
9/19/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations48.5
9/19/2019Leading Index-0.10%0.50%
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales5.37m5.42m
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.90%2.50%
9/20/2019Household Change in Net Worth$4691b





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