September 16, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher across in response to the volatility in oil markets.  Brent crude oil futures surged $12 per barrel when trading began overnight, the biggest intraday increase on record (prices currently +5-7%). A drone attack on a Saudi oil production facilities is affecting approximately 5% of global supply (50% of Saudi production), the single worst supply disruption in history. It’s still uncertain who led the attacks, but Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. 

Beyond geopolitical concerns, markets will be heavily focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25 bps rate cut is still widely expected, and market participants will be paying closer attention to the Fed’s guidance for future actions, particularly the updated Summary of Economic Projections. On the trade front, China is sending a team of trade staffers to Washington this week in preparation for the early October meetings between senior officials from each side.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/16/2019 Empire Manufacturing 4 2 4.8 —
9/17/2019 Industrial Production MoM 0.20% — -0.20% —
9/17/2019 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% — -0.40% —
9/17/2019 Capacity Utilization 77.60% — 77.50% —
9/17/2019 NAHB Housing Market Index 66 — 66 —
9/17/2019 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $99.1b —
9/17/2019 Total Net TIC Flows — — $1.7b —
9/18/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 2.00% —
9/18/2019 Building Permits MoM -1.30% — 8.40% 6.90%
9/18/2019 Building Permits 1300k — 1336k 1317k
9/18/2019 Housing Starts 1250k — 1191k —
9/18/2019 Housing Starts MoM 5.00% — -4.00% —
9/18/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.00% — 2.25% —
9/18/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.75% — 2.00% —
9/18/2019 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.85% — 2.10% —
9/19/2019 Current Account Balance -$127.5b — -$130.4b —
9/19/2019 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 10 — 16.8 —
9/19/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 213k — 204k —
9/19/2019 Continuing Claims 1670k — 1670k —
9/19/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 63.2 —
9/19/2019 Bloomberg Economic Expectations — — 48.5 —
9/19/2019 Leading Index -0.10% — 0.50% —
9/19/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.37m — 5.42m —
9/19/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.90% — 2.50% —
9/20/2019 Household Change in Net Worth — — $4691b —

 

 

 

 

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