September 16, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher across in response to the volatility in oil markets.  Brent crude oil futures surged $12 per barrel when trading began overnight, the biggest intraday increase on record (prices currently +5-7%). A drone attack on a Saudi oil production facilities is affecting approximately 5% of global supply (50% of Saudi production), the single worst supply disruption in history. It’s still uncertain who led the attacks, but Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility. 

Beyond geopolitical concerns, markets will be heavily focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25 bps rate cut is still widely expected, and market participants will be paying closer attention to the Fed’s guidance for future actions, particularly the updated Summary of Economic Projections. On the trade front, China is sending a team of trade staffers to Washington this week in preparation for the early October meetings between senior officials from each side.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/16/2019 Empire Manufacturing 4 2 4.8
9/17/2019 Industrial Production MoM 0.20% -0.20%
9/17/2019 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% -0.40%
9/17/2019 Capacity Utilization 77.60% 77.50%
9/17/2019 NAHB Housing Market Index 66 66
9/17/2019 Net Long-term TIC Flows $99.1b
9/17/2019 Total Net TIC Flows $1.7b
9/18/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 2.00%
9/18/2019 Building Permits MoM -1.30% 8.40% 6.90%
9/18/2019 Building Permits 1300k 1336k 1317k
9/18/2019 Housing Starts 1250k 1191k
9/18/2019 Housing Starts MoM 5.00% -4.00%
9/18/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 2.00% 2.25%
9/18/2019 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.75% 2.00%
9/18/2019 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.85% 2.10%
9/19/2019 Current Account Balance -$127.5b -$130.4b
9/19/2019 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 10 16.8
9/19/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 213k 204k
9/19/2019 Continuing Claims 1670k 1670k
9/19/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.2
9/19/2019 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 48.5
9/19/2019 Leading Index -0.10% 0.50%
9/19/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.37m 5.42m
9/19/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.90% 2.50%
9/20/2019 Household Change in Net Worth $4691b

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.