September 16, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher across in response to the volatility in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures surged $12 per barrel when trading began overnight, the biggest intraday increase on record (prices currently +5-7%). A drone attack on a Saudi oil production facilities is affecting approximately 5% of global supply (50% of Saudi production), the single worst supply disruption in history. It’s still uncertain who led the attacks, but Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have claimed responsibility.

Beyond geopolitical concerns, markets will be heavily focused on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. A 25 bps rate cut is still widely expected, and market participants will be paying closer attention to the Fed’s guidance for future actions, particularly the updated Summary of Economic Projections. On the trade front, China is sending a team of trade staffers to Washington this week in preparation for the early October meetings between senior officials from each side.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/16/2019	Empire Manufacturing	4	2	4.8	—
9/17/2019	Industrial Production MoM	0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
9/17/2019	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	—	-0.40%	—
9/17/2019	Capacity Utilization	77.60%	—	77.50%	—
9/17/2019	NAHB Housing Market Index	66	—	66	—
9/17/2019	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$99.1b	—
9/17/2019	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$1.7b	—
9/18/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.00%	—
9/18/2019	Building Permits MoM	-1.30%	—	8.40%	6.90%
9/18/2019	Building Permits	1300k	—	1336k	1317k
9/18/2019	Housing Starts	1250k	—	1191k	—
9/18/2019	Housing Starts MoM	5.00%	—	-4.00%	—
9/18/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	2.00%	—	2.25%	—
9/18/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	1.75%	—	2.00%	—
9/18/2019	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	1.85%	—	2.10%	—
9/19/2019	Current Account Balance	-$127.5b	—	-$130.4b	—
9/19/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	10	—	16.8	—
9/19/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	213k	—	204k	—
9/19/2019	Continuing Claims	1670k	—	1670k	—
9/19/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.2	—
9/19/2019	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	48.5	—
9/19/2019	Leading Index	-0.10%	—	0.50%	—
9/19/2019	Existing Home Sales	5.37m	—	5.42m	—
9/19/2019	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.90%	—	2.50%	—
9/20/2019	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$4691b	—

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