September 16, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices are moving higher following a weaker-than-expected August retail sales report, although markets are generally quiet ahead of today’s FOMC decision. Advance retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in August versus expectations of a 1% gain. The ex-auto sales figure was also below expectations (0.7% vs. 1.0%), and the July figures for both were revised lower. The bigger surprise was the 0.1% in the retail sales control group (+0.3% expected), which is the figure used in the GDP calculation. Despite the softer August report, consumption is still expected to rebound strongly in the Q3 report.

The FOMC is expected to maintain a very dovish tone in today’s official statement and press conference. One question mark is whether or not they will provide more quantitative forward guidance as a follow-up to the recent framework shift to average inflation targeting. The Fed will also be releasing an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) following today’s meeting.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 6.9 17 3.7
9/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.50% 0.90% 0.70% 1.20%
9/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.30% 0.70% 0.20%
9/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -2.10% -1.40% -3.30% -2.80%
9/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.50% 0.80% 0.90%
9/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -3.20% -2.80% -4.40% -3.80%
9/15/20 Industrial Production MoM 1.00% 0.40% 3.00% 3.50%
9/15/20 Capacity Utilization 71.40% 71.40% 70.60% 71.10%
9/15/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 1.30% 1.00% 3.40% 3.90%
9/16/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.50% 2.90%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% 0.60% 1.20% 0.90%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 1.00% 0.70% 1.90% 1.30%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.90% 0.70% 1.50% 1.10%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.10% 1.40% 0.90%
9/16/20 Business Inventories 0.10% -1.10%
9/16/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 78 78
9/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25%
9/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00%
9/16/20 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10%
9/16/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $113.0b
9/16/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$67.9b
9/17/20 Building Permits 1517k 1495k 1483k
9/17/20 Building Permits MoM 2.30% 18.80% 17.90%
9/17/20 Housing Starts 1483k 1496k
9/17/20 Housing Starts MoM -0.90% 22.60%
9/17/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 15 17.2
9/17/20 Initial Jobless Claims 850k 884k
9/17/20 Continuing Claims 13000k 13385k
9/17/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 38
9/17/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.8
9/18/20 Current Account Balance -$160.0b -$104.2b
9/18/20 Leading Index 1.30% 1.40%
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 75 74.1
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 83.1 82.9
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 67.2 68.5
9/18/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.10%
9/18/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.