September 16, 2021 Headlines

The curve is higher and steeper this morning following the release of initial jobless claims and retail sales. Initial jobless claims increased last week to 332,000 from 312,000. The median forecast had called for an increase to 322,000. Most of the rise in unemployment benefit applications came from Louisiana which is dealing with the impact of Hurricane Ida. 

August retail sales came in higher than expected at +0.7% MoM vs the -0.7% median survey response. August’s increase was driven by increased demand for back-to-school items. Auto sales have slowed and excluding autos, retail sales was up 1.8%, the largest increase in five months. Travel and leisure spending has moderated as the delta variant has reduced demand.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
09/13/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$175.0b -$170.6b -$200.0b —
09/14/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 99 100.1 99.7 —
09/14/21 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.30% 0.50% —
09/14/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.10% 0.30% —
09/14/21 CPI YoY 5.30% 5.30% 5.40% —
09/14/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.20% 4.00% 4.30% —
09/14/21 CPI Index NSA 273.835 273.567 273.003 —
09/14/21 CPI Core Index SA 279.733 279.338 279.054 —
09/14/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — -0.90% -1.20% —
09/14/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — -0.90% -0.70% -0.90%
09/15/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.30% -1.90% —
09/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 17.9 34.3 18.3 —
09/15/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.20% -0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
09/15/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
09/15/21 Import Price Index YoY 9.40% 9.00% 10.20% 10.30%
09/15/21 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.40% 1.30% 1.10%
09/15/21 Export Price Index YoY 17.00% 16.80% 17.20% 17.00%
09/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% 0.40% 0.90% 0.80%
09/15/21 Capacity Utilization 76.40% 76.40% 76.10% 76.20%
09/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.40% 0.20% 1.40% 1.60%
09/16/21 Initial Jobless Claims 322k 332k 310k 312k
09/16/21 Continuing Claims 2740k 2665k 2783k 2852k
09/16/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 19 30.7 19.4 —
09/16/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.70% 0.70% -1.10% -1.80%
09/16/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.00% 1.80% -0.40% -1.00%
09/16/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.00% 2.00% -0.70% -1.40%
09/16/21 Retail Sales Control Group 0.00% 2.50% -1.00% -1.90%
09/16/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 57.9 —
09/16/21 Business Inventories 0.50% — 0.80% —
09/16/21 Total Net TIC Flows — — $31.5b —
09/16/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $110.9b —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 72 — 70.3 —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 78.5 —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 65.1 —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.70% — 4.60% —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.90% —

 

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