September 16, 2021 Headlines

The curve is higher and steeper this morning following the release of initial jobless claims and retail sales. Initial jobless claims increased last week to 332,000 from 312,000. The median forecast had called for an increase to 322,000. Most of the rise in unemployment benefit applications came from Louisiana which is dealing with the impact of Hurricane Ida. 

August retail sales came in higher than expected at +0.7% MoM vs the -0.7% median survey response. August’s increase was driven by increased demand for back-to-school items. Auto sales have slowed and excluding autos, retail sales was up 1.8%, the largest increase in five months. Travel and leisure spending has moderated as the delta variant has reduced demand.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

09/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$170.6b-$200.0b
09/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99100.199.7
09/14/21CPI MoM0.40%0.30%0.50%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%
09/14/21CPI YoY5.30%5.30%5.40%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%4.00%4.30%
09/14/21CPI Index NSA273.835273.567273.003
09/14/21CPI Core Index SA279.733279.338279.054
09/14/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.90%-1.20%
09/14/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.90%-0.70%-0.90%
09/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%-1.90%
09/15/21Empire Manufacturing17.934.318.3
09/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.20%-0.30%0.30%0.40%
09/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%-0.10%0.10%0.30%
09/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.00%10.20%10.30%
09/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.40%1.30%1.10%
09/15/21Export Price Index YoY17.00%16.80%17.20%17.00%
09/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.40%0.90%0.80%
09/15/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.40%76.10%76.20%
09/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.20%1.40%1.60%
09/16/21Initial Jobless Claims322k332k310k312k
09/16/21Continuing Claims2740k2665k2783k2852k
09/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1930.719.4
09/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.70%0.70%-1.10%-1.80%
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%1.80%-0.40%-1.00%
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%2.00%-0.70%-1.40%
09/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.00%2.50%-1.00%-1.90%
09/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.9
09/16/21Business Inventories0.50%0.80%
09/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$31.5b
09/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$110.9b
09/17/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7270.3
09/17/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions78.5
09/17/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.1
09/17/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
09/17/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%


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