September 16, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking modestly higher following a relatively quiet overnight. There was some hawkish talk from ECB leaders, and China reported better than expected economic data (retail sales and industrial production). The 2-year Treasury yield is now at 3.90%, a 368 basis point increase from where it stood one year ago. The market is fully priced for a 75 basis point rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, and given the stubbornly high August CPI report, some speculation has stirred as to whether the Fed would consider a 100 basis point hike. With the Fed in the blackout period for public comments, there will be no guidance one way or the other ahead of Wednesday’s decision. The preliminary September University of Michigan survey will be released later this morning, which will include a fresh look at near-term and long-term consumer inflation expectations, something Powell and his colleagues have been very clear about as chief concern in the inflation battle.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. Sentiment	60	—	58.2	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	59.4	—	58.6	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. Expectations	59	—	58	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	4.60%	—	4.80%	—
9/16/2022	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.90%	—	2.90%	—
9/16/2022	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$121.8b	—
9/16/2022	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$22.1b	—
9/19/2022	NAHB Housing Market Index	48	—	49	—
9/20/2022	Building Permits	1610k	—	1674k	1685k
9/20/2022	Building Permits MoM	-4.50%	—	-1.30%	-0.60%
9/20/2022	Housing Starts	1459k	—	1446k	—
9/20/2022	Housing Starts MoM	0.90%	—	-9.60%	—
9/21/2022	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.20%	—
9/21/2022	Existing Home Sales	4.70m	—	4.81m	—
9/21/2022	Existing Home Sales MoM	-2.30%	—	-5.90%	—
9/21/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	3.00%	—	2.25%	—
9/21/2022	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	3.25%	—	2.50%	—
9/21/2022	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	3.15%	—	2.40%	—
9/22/2022	Current Account Balance	-$258.4b	—	-$291.4b	—
9/22/2022	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	—	213k	—
9/22/2022	Continuing Claims	1375k	—	1403k	—
9/22/2022	Leading Index	0.00%	—	-0.40%	—
9/22/2022	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	5	—	3	—
9/23/2022	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	51.3	—	51.5	—
9/23/2022	S&P Global US Services PMI	45.3	—	43.7	—
9/23/2022	S&P Global US Composite PMI	—	—	44.6	—

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