September 16, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking modestly higher following a relatively quiet overnight. There was some hawkish talk from ECB leaders, and China reported better than expected economic data (retail sales and industrial production). The 2-year Treasury yield is now at 3.90%, a 368 basis point increase from where it stood one year ago. The market is fully priced for a 75 basis point rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting, and given the stubbornly high August CPI report, some speculation has stirred as to whether the Fed would consider a 100 basis point hike. With the Fed in the blackout period for public comments, there will be no guidance one way or the other ahead of Wednesday’s decision. The preliminary September University of  Michigan survey will be released later this morning, which will include a fresh look at near-term and long-term consumer inflation expectations, something Powell and his colleagues have been very clear about as chief concern in the inflation battle.   

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 60 58.2
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 59.4 58.6
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 59 58
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.60% 4.80%
9/16/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.90% 2.90%
9/16/2022 Net Long-term TIC Flows $121.8b
9/16/2022 Total Net TIC Flows $22.1b
9/19/2022 NAHB Housing Market Index 48 49
9/20/2022 Building Permits 1610k 1674k 1685k
9/20/2022 Building Permits MoM -4.50% -1.30% -0.60%
9/20/2022 Housing Starts 1459k 1446k
9/20/2022 Housing Starts MoM 0.90% -9.60%
9/21/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20%
9/21/2022 Existing Home Sales 4.70m 4.81m
9/21/2022 Existing Home Sales MoM -2.30% -5.90%
9/21/2022 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 3.00% 2.25%
9/21/2022 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 3.25% 2.50%
9/21/2022 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 3.15% 2.40%
9/22/2022 Current Account Balance -$258.4b -$291.4b
9/22/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 220k 213k
9/22/2022 Continuing Claims 1375k 1403k
9/22/2022 Leading Index 0.00% -0.40%
9/22/2022 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 5 3
9/23/2022 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.5
9/23/2022 S&P Global US Services PMI 45.3 43.7
9/23/2022 S&P Global US Composite PMI 44.6

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.