September 17, 2019 Headlines

Despite oil prices stabilizing, the general risk-off tone persisted overnight. Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures are both modestly lower to start the morning. There really weren’t any major headlines overnight, but there is still a lot of focus on the attack on Saudi oil production, particularly as it relates to supply disruption and any potential military response. Overnight funding markets have come under stress for a second day in a row, sending repo and other money market rates higher. The primary catalyst for the move has been a large withdrawal of corporate cash from money market funds in preparation for tax payments, and with the effective fed funds rate moving above the top end of the target range, the Fed is expected to utilize its repo facility to dampen this short-term funding squeeze. A Reuters article released today discusses a growing divide within the Fed over future policy action. This divide was evident in the last “dot plot,” and while the hawks are focused on a more positive domestic data trend, the doves are concerned that contagion from abroad (trade, geopolitical, etc.) will soon spillover into the U.S. economy.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/17/2019Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.60%-0.20%-0.10%
9/17/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.50%-0.40%
9/17/2019Capacity Utilization77.60%77.90%77.50%
9/17/2019NAHB Housing Market Index6666
9/17/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$99.1b
9/17/2019Total Net TIC Flows$1.7b
9/18/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%
9/18/2019Building Permits MoM-1.30%8.40%6.90%
9/18/2019Building Permits1300k1336k1317k
9/18/2019Housing Starts1250k1191k
9/18/2019Housing Starts MoM5.00%-4.00%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%2.25%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%2.00%
9/18/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.85%2.10%
9/19/2019Current Account Balance-$127.4b-$130.4b
9/19/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10.516.8
9/19/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k204k
9/19/2019Continuing Claims1672k1670k
9/19/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.2
9/19/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations48.5
9/19/2019Leading Index-0.10%0.50%
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales5.38m5.42m
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.70%2.50%
9/20/2019Household Change in Net Worth$4691b

 

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.