September 17, 2019 Headlines

Despite oil prices stabilizing, the general risk-off tone persisted overnight. Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures are both modestly lower to start the morning. There really weren’t any major headlines overnight, but there is still a lot of focus on the attack on Saudi oil production, particularly as it relates to supply disruption and any potential military response. Overnight funding markets have come under stress for a second day in a row, sending repo and other money market rates higher. The primary catalyst for the move has been a large withdrawal of corporate cash from money market funds in preparation for tax payments, and with the effective fed funds rate moving above the top end of the target range, the Fed is expected to utilize its repo facility to dampen this short-term funding squeeze. A Reuters article released today discusses a growing divide within the Fed over future policy action. This divide was evident in the last “dot plot,” and while the hawks are focused on a more positive domestic data trend, the doves are concerned that contagion from abroad (trade, geopolitical, etc.) will soon spillover into the U.S. economy.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

9/17/2019Industrial Production MoM0.20%0.60%-0.20%-0.10%
9/17/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.50%-0.40%
9/17/2019Capacity Utilization77.60%77.90%77.50%
9/17/2019NAHB Housing Market Index6666
9/17/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$99.1b
9/17/2019Total Net TIC Flows$1.7b
9/18/2019MBA Mortgage Applications2.00%
9/18/2019Building Permits MoM-1.30%8.40%6.90%
9/18/2019Building Permits1300k1336k1317k
9/18/2019Housing Starts1250k1191k
9/18/2019Housing Starts MoM5.00%-4.00%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%2.25%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%2.00%
9/18/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.85%2.10%
9/19/2019Current Account Balance-$127.4b-$130.4b
9/19/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10.516.8
9/19/2019Initial Jobless Claims214k204k
9/19/2019Continuing Claims1672k1670k
9/19/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.2
9/19/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations48.5
9/19/2019Leading Index-0.10%0.50%
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales5.38m5.42m
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.70%2.50%
9/20/2019Household Change in Net Worth$4691b






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