September 17, 2019 Headlines

Despite oil prices stabilizing, the general risk-off tone persisted overnight. Treasury yields and S&P 500 futures are both modestly lower to start the morning. There really weren’t any major headlines overnight, but there is still a lot of focus on the attack on Saudi oil production, particularly as it relates to supply disruption and any potential military response. Overnight funding markets have come under stress for a second day in a row, sending repo and other money market rates higher. The primary catalyst for the move has been a large withdrawal of corporate cash from money market funds in preparation for tax payments, and with the effective fed funds rate moving above the top end of the target range, the Fed is expected to utilize its repo facility to dampen this short-term funding squeeze. A Reuters article released today discusses a growing divide within the Fed over future policy action. This divide was evident in the last “dot plot,” and while the hawks are focused on a more positive domestic data trend, the doves are concerned that contagion from abroad (trade, geopolitical, etc.) will soon spillover into the U.S. economy.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/17/2019	Industrial Production MoM	0.20%	0.60%	-0.20%	-0.10%
9/17/2019	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.20%	0.50%	-0.40%	—
9/17/2019	Capacity Utilization	77.60%	77.90%	77.50%	—
9/17/2019	NAHB Housing Market Index	66	—	66	—
9/17/2019	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$99.1b	—
9/17/2019	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	$1.7b	—
9/18/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	2.00%	—
9/18/2019	Building Permits MoM	-1.30%	—	8.40%	6.90%
9/18/2019	Building Permits	1300k	—	1336k	1317k
9/18/2019	Housing Starts	1250k	—	1191k	—
9/18/2019	Housing Starts MoM	5.00%	—	-4.00%	—
9/18/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	2.00%	—	2.25%	—
9/18/2019	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	1.75%	—	2.00%	—
9/18/2019	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	1.85%	—	2.10%	—
9/19/2019	Current Account Balance	-$127.4b	—	-$130.4b	—
9/19/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	10.5	—	16.8	—
9/19/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	214k	—	204k	—
9/19/2019	Continuing Claims	1672k	—	1670k	—
9/19/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.2	—
9/19/2019	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	48.5	—
9/19/2019	Leading Index	-0.10%	—	0.50%	—
9/19/2019	Existing Home Sales	5.38m	—	5.42m	—
9/19/2019	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.70%	—	2.50%	—
9/20/2019	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$4691b	—

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