September 17, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning while equities open in the red as concerns over fiscal stimulus weighed on investor sentiment. The FOMC statement from yesterday provided explicit forward guidance. Stating that the central bank will keep rates at zero until the labor market reaches maximum employment. Additionally, they will hold rates steady until inflations “has risen” to 2% and “is on track” to exceed 2% for some time. The Fed’s statement also added Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) to its guidance.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/15/20	Empire Manufacturing	6.9	17	3.7	—
9/15/20	Import Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.90%	0.70%	1.20%
9/15/20	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.30%	0.70%	0.20%	—
9/15/20	Import Price Index YoY	-2.10%	-1.40%	-3.30%	-2.80%
9/15/20	Export Price Index MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.80%	0.90%
9/15/20	Export Price Index YoY	-3.20%	-2.80%	-4.40%	-3.80%
9/15/20	Industrial Production MoM	1.00%	0.40%	3.00%	3.50%
9/15/20	Capacity Utilization	71.40%	71.40%	70.60%	71.10%
9/15/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	1.30%	1.00%	3.40%	3.90%
9/16/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.50%	2.90%	—
9/16/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	1.00%	0.60%	1.20%	0.90%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	1.00%	0.70%	1.90%	1.30%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.90%	0.70%	1.50%	1.10%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	-0.10%	1.40%	0.90%
9/16/20	Business Inventories	0.10%	0.10%	-1.10%	—
9/16/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	78	83	78	—
9/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
9/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
9/16/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
9/16/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$10.8b	$113.0b	—
9/16/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$88.7b	-$67.9b	-$69.8b
9/17/20	Initial Jobless Claims	850k	860k	884k	893k
9/17/20	Continuing Claims	13000k	12628k	13385k	13544k
9/17/20	Housing Starts	1488k	1416k	1496k	1492k
9/17/20	Housing Starts MoM	-0.60%	-5.10%	22.60%	17.90%
9/17/20	Building Permits	1512k	1470k	1495k	1483k
9/17/20	Building Permits MoM	2.00%	-0.90%	18.80%	17.90%
9/17/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	15	15	17.2	—
9/17/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	41.5	38	—
9/17/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	47.7	47.8	—
9/18/20	Current Account Balance	-$160.0b	—	-$104.2b	—
9/18/20	Leading Index	1.30%	—	1.40%	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	75	—	74.1	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	83.1	—	82.9	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	67.2	—	68.5	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.00%	—	3.10%	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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