September 17, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning while equities open in the red as concerns over fiscal stimulus weighed on investor sentiment. The FOMC statement from yesterday provided explicit forward guidance. Stating that the central bank will keep rates at zero until the labor market reaches maximum employment. Additionally, they will hold rates steady until inflations “has risen” to 2% and “is on track” to exceed 2% for some time. The Fed’s statement also added Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) to its guidance.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 6.9 17 3.7
9/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.50% 0.90% 0.70% 1.20%
9/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.30% 0.70% 0.20%
9/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -2.10% -1.40% -3.30% -2.80%
9/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.50% 0.80% 0.90%
9/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -3.20% -2.80% -4.40% -3.80%
9/15/20 Industrial Production MoM 1.00% 0.40% 3.00% 3.50%
9/15/20 Capacity Utilization 71.40% 71.40% 70.60% 71.10%
9/15/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 1.30% 1.00% 3.40% 3.90%
9/16/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.50% 2.90%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% 0.60% 1.20% 0.90%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 1.00% 0.70% 1.90% 1.30%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.90% 0.70% 1.50% 1.10%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.10% 1.40% 0.90%
9/16/20 Business Inventories 0.10% 0.10% -1.10%
9/16/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 78 83 78
9/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
9/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9/16/20 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
9/16/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows $10.8b $113.0b
9/16/20 Total Net TIC Flows -$88.7b -$67.9b -$69.8b
9/17/20 Initial Jobless Claims 850k 860k 884k 893k
9/17/20 Continuing Claims 13000k 12628k 13385k 13544k
9/17/20 Housing Starts 1488k 1416k 1496k 1492k
9/17/20 Housing Starts MoM -0.60% -5.10% 22.60% 17.90%
9/17/20 Building Permits 1512k 1470k 1495k 1483k
9/17/20 Building Permits MoM 2.00% -0.90% 18.80% 17.90%
9/17/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 15 15 17.2
9/17/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 41.5 38
9/17/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 47.7 47.8
9/18/20 Current Account Balance -$160.0b -$104.2b
9/18/20 Leading Index 1.30% 1.40%
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 75 74.1
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 83.1 82.9
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 67.2 68.5
9/18/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.10%
9/18/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%


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