September 17, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries fluctuated in a relatively tight range overnight on conflicting headlines out of Europe and China. Yields are unchanged to slightly lower this morning, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.20%. An ECB official said that Eurozone inflation is likely to be revised higher, although he did add the caveat of “if Covid does not surprise on the negative side.” China’s central bank injected $14 billion into its banking system today, the most since February, to combat a liquidity crunch in credit markets on concerns that real estate development giant China Evergrande is poised to default on its debt obligations. The preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released later this morning. The index is expected to modestly improve after plunging the prior two months to Spring 2020 levels amid delta variant and inflation concerns.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
09/13/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$175.0b -$170.6b -$200.0b —
09/14/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 99 100.1 99.7 —
09/14/21 CPI MoM 0.40% 0.30% 0.50% —
09/14/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% 0.10% 0.30% —
09/14/21 CPI YoY 5.30% 5.30% 5.40% —
09/14/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.20% 4.00% 4.30% —
09/14/21 CPI Index NSA 273.835 273.567 273.003 —
09/14/21 CPI Core Index SA 279.733 279.338 279.054 —
09/14/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — -0.90% -1.20% —
09/14/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — -0.90% -0.70% -0.90%
09/15/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — 0.30% -1.90% —
09/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 17.9 34.3 18.3 —
09/15/21 Import Price Index MoM 0.20% -0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
09/15/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
09/15/21 Import Price Index YoY 9.40% 9.00% 10.20% 10.30%
09/15/21 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.40% 1.30% 1.10%
09/15/21 Export Price Index YoY 17.00% 16.80% 17.20% 17.00%
09/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.50% 0.40% 0.90% 0.80%
09/15/21 Capacity Utilization 76.40% 76.40% 76.10% 76.20%
09/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.40% 0.20% 1.40% 1.60%
09/16/21 Initial Jobless Claims 322k 332k 310k 312k
09/16/21 Continuing Claims 2740k 2665k 2783k 2852k
09/16/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 19 30.7 19.4 —
09/16/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.70% 0.70% -1.10% -1.80%
09/16/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.00% 1.80% -0.40% -1.00%
09/16/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.00% 2.00% -0.70% -1.40%
09/16/21 Retail Sales Control Group 0.00% 2.50% -1.00% -1.90%
09/16/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — 57.7 57.9 —
09/16/21 Business Inventories 0.50% 0.50% 0.80% 0.90%
09/16/21 Total Net TIC Flows — $126.0b $31.5b $32.0b
09/16/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows — $2.0b $110.9b —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 72 — 70.3 —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 78.5 —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 65.1 —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.70% — 4.60% —
09/17/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.90% —

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