September 17, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries fluctuated in a relatively tight range overnight on conflicting headlines out of Europe and China. Yields are unchanged to slightly lower this morning, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.20%. An ECB official said that Eurozone inflation is likely to be revised higher, although he did add the caveat of “if Covid does not surprise on the negative side.” China’s central bank injected $14 billion into its banking system today, the most since February, to combat a liquidity crunch in credit markets on concerns that real estate development giant China Evergrande is poised to default on its debt obligations. The preliminary September University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released later this morning. The index is expected to modestly improve after plunging the prior two months to Spring 2020 levels amid delta variant and inflation concerns.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$175.0b-$170.6b-$200.0b
09/14/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99100.199.7
09/14/21CPI MoM0.40%0.30%0.50%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%
09/14/21CPI YoY5.30%5.30%5.40%
09/14/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%4.00%4.30%
09/14/21CPI Index NSA273.835273.567273.003
09/14/21CPI Core Index SA279.733279.338279.054
09/14/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-0.90%-1.20%
09/14/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-0.90%-0.70%-0.90%
09/15/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%-1.90%
09/15/21Empire Manufacturing17.934.318.3
09/15/21Import Price Index MoM0.20%-0.30%0.30%0.40%
09/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%-0.10%0.10%0.30%
09/15/21Import Price Index YoY9.40%9.00%10.20%10.30%
09/15/21Export Price Index MoM0.40%0.40%1.30%1.10%
09/15/21Export Price Index YoY17.00%16.80%17.20%17.00%
09/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.50%0.40%0.90%0.80%
09/15/21Capacity Utilization76.40%76.40%76.10%76.20%
09/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.40%0.20%1.40%1.60%
09/16/21Initial Jobless Claims322k332k310k312k
09/16/21Continuing Claims2740k2665k2783k2852k
09/16/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook1930.719.4
09/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.70%0.70%-1.10%-1.80%
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.00%1.80%-0.40%-1.00%
09/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.00%2.00%-0.70%-1.40%
09/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.00%2.50%-1.00%-1.90%
09/16/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.757.9
09/16/21Business Inventories0.50%0.50%0.80%0.90%
09/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$126.0b$31.5b$32.0b
09/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$2.0b$110.9b
09/17/21U. of Mich. Sentiment7270.3
09/17/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions78.5
09/17/21U. of Mich. Expectations65.1
09/17/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.70%4.60%
09/17/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%

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