September 18, 2019 Headlines

Trading in the overnight session was muted as investors patiently wait for the Federal Reserve to conclude their policy meeting later today. Officials are widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by .25% but all the focus will be on the updated dot plot, FOMC statement, and Powell press conference to gauge future policy action. As mentioned in the previous commentary, there have been discussions of a possible growing divide in future policy action based on the last dot plot, where hawks are more focused on a positive domestic data trend, and the doves are concerned about contagion from abroad (trade, geopolitical, etc.).

Overnight funding rates have calmed down after surging to start the week, as a combination of factors affected both the availability of cash and the demand for funding. In order to alleviate this short-term mismatch, the New York Fed announced yesterday that it would conduct a system open market operation to inject liquidity into the market. Historically, it has been a tool used by the Fed to implement monetary policy. However, it hasn’t been needed in today’s current environment with abundant bank reserves.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/18/2019MBA Mortgage Applications—-0.10%2.00%—
9/18/2019Housing Starts1250k1364k1191k1215k
9/18/2019Housing Starts MoM5.00%12.30%-4.00%-1.50%
9/18/2019Building Permits1300k1419k1336k1317k
9/18/2019Building Permits MoM-1.30%7.70%8.40%6.90%
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.00%—2.25%—
9/18/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.75%—2.00%—
9/18/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.85%—2.10%—
9/19/2019Current Account Balance-$127.4b—-$130.4b—
9/19/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10.5—16.8—
9/19/2019Initial Jobless Claims213k—204k—
9/19/2019Continuing Claims1672k—1670k—
9/19/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——63.2—
9/19/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations——48.5—
9/19/2019Leading Index-0.10%—0.50%—
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales5.38m—5.42m—
9/19/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.70%—2.50%—
9/20/2019Household Change in Net Worth——$4691b—

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.