September 18, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower across much of the curve following another quiet overnight session, and U.S. equity futures are little changed ahead of the open. The Financial Times is reporting that Moderna could have to wait until as late as December to analyze data from its Covid-19 vaccine trial, which conflicts with a more optimistic timeline from the White House. Walmart announced it is raising wages for 165,000 employees, which equates to 11% of the company’s U.S. workforce. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard is speaking this morning on challenges of the Covid recovery, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will discuss the market premise of “too big to fail” at an event hosted by the Council of Institutional Investors.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/15/20	Empire Manufacturing	6.9	17	3.7	—
9/15/20	Import Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.90%	0.70%	1.20%
9/15/20	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.30%	0.70%	0.20%	—
9/15/20	Import Price Index YoY	-2.10%	-1.40%	-3.30%	-2.80%
9/15/20	Export Price Index MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.80%	0.90%
9/15/20	Export Price Index YoY	-3.20%	-2.80%	-4.40%	-3.80%
9/15/20	Industrial Production MoM	1.00%	0.40%	3.00%	3.50%
9/15/20	Capacity Utilization	71.40%	71.40%	70.60%	71.10%
9/15/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	1.30%	1.00%	3.40%	3.90%
9/16/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.50%	2.90%	—
9/16/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	1.00%	0.60%	1.20%	0.90%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	1.00%	0.70%	1.90%	1.30%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.90%	0.70%	1.50%	1.10%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	-0.10%	1.40%	0.90%
9/16/20	Business Inventories	0.10%	0.10%	-1.10%	—
9/16/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	78	83	78	—
9/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
9/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
9/16/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
9/16/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$10.8b	$113.0b	—
9/16/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$88.7b	-$67.9b	-$69.8b
9/17/20	Initial Jobless Claims	850k	860k	884k	893k
9/17/20	Continuing Claims	13000k	12628k	13385k	13544k
9/17/20	Housing Starts	1488k	1416k	1496k	1492k
9/17/20	Housing Starts MoM	-0.60%	-5.10%	22.60%	17.90%
9/17/20	Building Permits	1512k	1470k	1495k	1483k
9/17/20	Building Permits MoM	2.00%	-0.90%	18.80%	17.90%
9/17/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	15	15	17.2	—
9/17/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	41.5	38	—
9/17/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	47.7	47.8	—
9/18/20	Current Account Balance	-$160.0b	-$170.5b	-$104.2b	-$111.5b
9/18/20	Leading Index	1.30%	—	1.40%	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	75	—	74.1	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	83.1	—	82.9	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	67.2	—	68.5	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.00%	—	3.10%	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

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