September 18, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower across much of the curve following another quiet overnight session, and U.S. equity futures are little changed ahead of the open. The Financial Times is reporting that Moderna could have to wait until as late as December to analyze data from its Covid-19 vaccine trial, which conflicts with a more optimistic timeline from the White House. Walmart announced it is raising wages for 165,000 employees, which equates to 11% of the company’s U.S. workforce. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard is speaking this morning on challenges of the Covid recovery, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will discuss the market premise of “too big to fail” at an event hosted by the Council of Institutional Investors.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/15/20	Empire Manufacturing	6.9	17	3.7	—
9/15/20	Import Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.90%	0.70%	1.20%
9/15/20	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	0.30%	0.70%	0.20%	—
9/15/20	Import Price Index YoY	-2.10%	-1.40%	-3.30%	-2.80%
9/15/20	Export Price Index MoM	0.40%	0.50%	0.80%	0.90%
9/15/20	Export Price Index YoY	-3.20%	-2.80%	-4.40%	-3.80%
9/15/20	Industrial Production MoM	1.00%	0.40%	3.00%	3.50%
9/15/20	Capacity Utilization	71.40%	71.40%	70.60%	71.10%
9/15/20	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	1.30%	1.00%	3.40%	3.90%
9/16/20	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-2.50%	2.90%	—
9/16/20	Retail Sales Advance MoM	1.00%	0.60%	1.20%	0.90%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	1.00%	0.70%	1.90%	1.30%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.90%	0.70%	1.50%	1.10%
9/16/20	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	-0.10%	1.40%	0.90%
9/16/20	Business Inventories	0.10%	0.10%	-1.10%	—
9/16/20	NAHB Housing Market Index	78	83	78	—
9/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
9/16/20	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
9/16/20	Interest Rate on Excess Reserves	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%	—
9/16/20	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$10.8b	$113.0b	—
9/16/20	Total Net TIC Flows	—	-$88.7b	-$67.9b	-$69.8b
9/17/20	Initial Jobless Claims	850k	860k	884k	893k
9/17/20	Continuing Claims	13000k	12628k	13385k	13544k
9/17/20	Housing Starts	1488k	1416k	1496k	1492k
9/17/20	Housing Starts MoM	-0.60%	-5.10%	22.60%	17.90%
9/17/20	Building Permits	1512k	1470k	1495k	1483k
9/17/20	Building Permits MoM	2.00%	-0.90%	18.80%	17.90%
9/17/20	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	15	15	17.2	—
9/17/20	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	41.5	38	—
9/17/20	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	47.7	47.8	—
9/18/20	Current Account Balance	-$160.0b	-$170.5b	-$104.2b	-$111.5b
9/18/20	Leading Index	1.30%	—	1.40%	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Sentiment	75	—	74.1	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	83.1	—	82.9	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. Expectations	67.2	—	68.5	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.00%	—	3.10%	—
9/18/20	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

July 28, 2021 Headlines July 28, 2021
Leveraging Technology for a Better Pricing Experience with Mortgage Pipeline Hedging July 27, 2021
July 27, 2021 Headlines July 27, 2021

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.