September 18, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower across much of the curve following another quiet overnight session, and U.S. equity futures are little changed ahead of the open. The Financial Times is reporting that Moderna could have to wait until as late as December to analyze data from its Covid-19 vaccine trial, which conflicts with a more optimistic timeline from the White House. Walmart announced it is raising wages for 165,000 employees, which equates to 11% of the company’s U.S. workforce. St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard is speaking this morning on challenges of the Covid recovery, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will discuss the market premise of “too big to fail” at an event hosted by the Council of Institutional Investors.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/15/20 Empire Manufacturing 6.9 17 3.7 —
9/15/20 Import Price Index MoM 0.50% 0.90% 0.70% 1.20%
9/15/20 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.30% 0.70% 0.20% —
9/15/20 Import Price Index YoY -2.10% -1.40% -3.30% -2.80%
9/15/20 Export Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.50% 0.80% 0.90%
9/15/20 Export Price Index YoY -3.20% -2.80% -4.40% -3.80%
9/15/20 Industrial Production MoM 1.00% 0.40% 3.00% 3.50%
9/15/20 Capacity Utilization 71.40% 71.40% 70.60% 71.10%
9/15/20 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 1.30% 1.00% 3.40% 3.90%
9/16/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.50% 2.90% —
9/16/20 Retail Sales Advance MoM 1.00% 0.60% 1.20% 0.90%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 1.00% 0.70% 1.90% 1.30%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.90% 0.70% 1.50% 1.10%
9/16/20 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% -0.10% 1.40% 0.90%
9/16/20 Business Inventories 0.10% 0.10% -1.10% —
9/16/20 NAHB Housing Market Index 78 83 78 —
9/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% —
9/16/20 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% —
9/16/20 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% —
9/16/20 Net Long-term TIC Flows — $10.8b $113.0b —
9/16/20 Total Net TIC Flows — -$88.7b -$67.9b -$69.8b
9/17/20 Initial Jobless Claims 850k 860k 884k 893k
9/17/20 Continuing Claims 13000k 12628k 13385k 13544k
9/17/20 Housing Starts 1488k 1416k 1496k 1492k
9/17/20 Housing Starts MoM -0.60% -5.10% 22.60% 17.90%
9/17/20 Building Permits 1512k 1470k 1495k 1483k
9/17/20 Building Permits MoM 2.00% -0.90% 18.80% 17.90%
9/17/20 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 15 15 17.2 —
9/17/20 Bloomberg Economic Expectations — 41.5 38 —
9/17/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 47.7 47.8 —
9/18/20 Current Account Balance -$160.0b -$170.5b -$104.2b -$111.5b
9/18/20 Leading Index 1.30% — 1.40% —
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 75 — 74.1 —
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 83.1 — 82.9 —
9/18/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 67.2 — 68.5 —
9/18/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00% — 3.10% —
9/18/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.70% —

 

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