September 20, 2021 Headlines

A potential default this week by Chinese real estate giant Evergrande and worries of secondary contagion from the default has investors uneasy to start the week. Today’s global risk-off trade has U.S. equity index futures down 1.5%-2% and the Treasury curve 5 basis points flatter. Beyond China-related concerns, markets are focused most on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. While any discussion of asset purchase tapering will be closely followed, so will the release of the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This version will include the first 2024 projections for the fed funds rate and various economic metrics, which will provide some guidance on the committee’s inflation forecast and how aggressive they currently think they will need to be related to rate hikes.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
09/20/21NAHB Housing Market Index7475
09/21/21Building Permits MoM-1.80%2.60%2.30%
09/21/21Building Permits1600k1635k1630k
09/21/21Current Account Balance-$191.0b-$195.7b
09/21/21Housing Starts1555k1534k
09/21/21Housing Starts MoM1.40%-7.00%
09/22/21MBA Mortgage Applications0.30%
09/22/21Existing Home Sales5.88m5.99m
09/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-1.80%2.00%
09/22/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
09/22/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
09/22/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
09/23/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.53
09/23/21Initial Jobless Claims320k332k
09/23/21Continuing Claims2610k2665k
09/23/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.7
09/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.861.1
09/23/21Markit US Services PMI5555.1
09/23/21Markit US Composite PMI55.4
09/23/21Leading Index0.70%0.90%
09/23/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2529
09/23/21Household Change in Net Worth$4997b
09/24/21New Home Sales711k708k
09/24/21New Home Sales MoM0.40%1.00%

 

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