September 20, 2022 Headlines

The tone in financial markets remains the same this morning, with fewer investors willing to take long positions ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Sweden’s Riksbank kicked off this week’s central bank festivities with a 100-basis point rate hike, 25 bps more than expected. Treasury yields continue to leak higher, and the 12-month Treasury bill became the first Treasury benchmark to hit a 4% yield overnight. The 2-year yield is very close to doing the same at 3.97% this morning, and the 10-year yield is up 7 bps to 3.56%. On the data front, housing starts rebounded sharply in August, up 12.2% m/m following July’s 10.9% decline. The headline figure was boosted by a 28% increase in the ever-volatile multifamily sector, but single-family starts were also 3.4% on the month. In summary, the slowdown in building activity was not likely as bad as the July report may have suggested, but the housing market is still struggling. Single-family starts were still down 14.6% year-over-year in August, slightly better than the -19.6% July figure.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
09/19/22 NAHB Housing Market Index 47 46 49 —
09/20/22 Housing Starts 1450k 1575k 1446k 1404k
09/20/22 Building Permits 1604k 1517k 1674k 1685k
09/20/22 Housing Starts MoM 0.30% 12.20% -9.60% -10.90%
09/20/22 Building Permits MoM -4.80% -10.00% -1.30% -0.60%
09/21/22 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -1.20% —
09/21/22 Existing Home Sales 4.69m — 4.81m —
09/21/22 Existing Home Sales MoM -2.50% — -5.90% —
09/21/22 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 3.00% — 2.25% —
09/21/22 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 3.25% — 2.50% —
09/21/22 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 3.15% — 2.40% —
09/22/22 Current Account Balance -$260.0b — -$291.4b —
09/22/22 Initial Jobless Claims 217k — 213k —
09/22/22 Continuing Claims 1418k — 1403k —
09/22/22 Leading Index -0.10% — -0.40% —
09/22/22 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 5 — 3 —
09/23/22 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51 — 51.5 —
09/23/22 S&P Global US Services PMI 45.5 — 43.7 —
09/23/22 S&P Global US Composite PMI 46.1 — 44.6 —

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