The Treasury curve is roughly 1 bps lower this morning after the markets had a chance to take in yesterday’s Fed guidance. As was expected, the central bank kept the Fed Funds target range at 1-1.25% and officially announced their plan to unwind its balance sheet starting in October. The curve bear flattened following the release, which typically pushes mortgage spreads wider due to a combination of expectations of faster prepayments and increased supply, however spreads actually compressed yesterday afternoon as REITs and banks piled in looking to add duration and pick up yield.

Initial jobless claims fell last week which was a surprise given the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey. The claims number fell by 23,000 to 259,000 vs. the median forecast of 302,000. Volatility in the number is expected to continue as was seen following other hurricanes like Sandy in 2012.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
09/21/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims16-Sep302k259k284k282k
09/21/2017 08:30Continuing Claims9-Sep1975k1980k1944k1936k
09/21/2017 08:30Philadelphia Fed Business OutlookSep17.123.818.9
09/21/2017 09:00FHFA House Price Index MoMJul0.40%0.20%0.10%
09/21/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort17-Sep50.651.9
09/21/2017 09:45Bloomberg Economic ExpectationsSep51.554
09/21/2017 10:00Leading IndexAug0.30%0.40%0.30%
09/21/2017 12:00Household Change in Net Worth2Q$2347b
09/22/2017 09:45Markit US Manufacturing PMISep P5352.8
09/22/2017 09:45Markit US Services PMISep P55.756
09/22/2017 09:45Markit US Composite PMISep P55.3
09/25/2017 08:30Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexAug-0.01
09/25/2017 10:30Dallas Fed Manf. ActivitySep1317
09/26/2017 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SAJul0.11%
09/26/2017 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSAJul5.65%
09/26/2017 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA IndexJul200.54
09/26/2017 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSAJul5.77%
09/26/2017 09:00S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA IndexJul192.6
09/26/2017 10:00New Home SalesAug600k571k
09/26/2017 10:00New Home Sales MoMAug5.10%-9.40%
09/26/2017 10:00Conf. Board Consumer ConfidenceSep119.3122.9
09/26/2017 10:00Conf. Board Present SituationSep151.2
09/26/2017 10:00Conf. Board ExpectationsSep104
09/26/2017 10:00Richmond Fed Manufact. IndexSep1314
09/27/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications22-Sep-9.70%
09/27/2017 08:30Durable Goods OrdersAug P0.90%-6.80%
09/27/2017 08:30Durables Ex TransportationAug P0.30%0.60%
09/27/2017 08:30Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirAug P0.40%1.00%
09/27/2017 08:30Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirAug P1.20%
09/27/2017 10:00Pending Home Sales MoMAug-0.50%-0.80%
09/27/2017 10:00Pending Home Sales NSA YoYAug-0.50%
09/28/2017 08:30GDP Annualized QoQ2Q T3.10%3.00%
09/28/2017 08:30Personal Consumption2Q T3.30%
09/28/2017 08:30GDP Price Index2Q T1.00%1.00%
09/28/2017 08:30Core PCE QoQ2Q T0.90%
09/28/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims23-Sep259k
09/28/2017 08:30Continuing Claims16-Sep1980k
09/28/2017 08:30Advance Goods Trade BalanceAug-$65.1b-$65.1b-$63.9b
09/28/2017 08:30Wholesale Inventories MoMAug P0.60%
09/28/2017 08:30Retail Inventories MoMAug-0.20%-0.10%
09/28/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort24-Sep50.6
09/28/2017 11:00Kansas City Fed Manf. ActivitySep16