September 21, 2023 Headlines

The market continues to digest yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which was on the hawkish end of the spectrum. While the Fed held the fed funds rate steady, as expected, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed only 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, less than half of what was projected in the June SEP. We had suggested this might happen in recent commentary and yields in the belly of the Treasury curve have repriced 10-12 basis points higher compared to Tuesday’s close in consideration of the ‘higher for longer’ narrative. The rest of the SEP was quite optimistic, including a higher median forecast for GDP growth and lower unemployment and inflation. One of my favorite economists humorously characterized this hopeful shift as the “Immaculate Disinflation.” The recent data trend clearly solidified their expectations that a soft landing is achievable, but getting inflation back down to 2% may indeed require more economic pain than the Fed currently anticipates. However, no distress was evident in today’s releases, with initial jobless claims falling to 201,000 last week, the lowest since late January.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/21/2023 Current Account Balance -$220.0b -$212.1b -$219.3b -$214.5b
9/21/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 201k 220k 221k
9/21/2023 Continuing Claims 1692k 1662k 1688k 1683k
9/21/2023 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -1 -13.5 12
9/21/2023 Existing Home Sales 4.10m 4.07m
9/21/2023 Existing Home Sales MoM 0.70% -2.20%
9/21/2023 Leading Index -0.50% -0.40%
9/22/2023 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 48.2 47.9
9/22/2023 S&P Global US Services PMI 50.7 50.5
9/22/2023 S&P Global US Composite PMI 50.4 50.2
9/25/2023 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.12
9/25/2023 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -17.2
9/26/2023 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -13.1
9/26/2023 Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/26/2023 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.30%
9/26/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.92%
9/26/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA -1.17%
9/26/2023 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA -0.02%
9/26/2023 New Home Sales 700k 714k
9/26/2023 New Home Sales MoM -2.00% 4.40%
9/26/2023 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 106.5 106.1
9/26/2023 Conf. Board Present Situation 144.8
9/26/2023 Conf. Board Expectations 80.2
9/26/2023 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -7
9/26/2023 Richmond Fed Business Conditions 1
9/26/2023 Dallas Fed Services Activity -2.7
9/27/2023 MBA Mortgage Applications 5.40%
9/27/2023 Durable Goods Orders -0.40% -5.20%
9/27/2023 Durables Ex Transportation 0.10% 0.40%
9/27/2023 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.10%
9/27/2023 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.30%
9/28/2023 Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
9/28/2023 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.30% 2.10%
9/28/2023 Personal Consumption 1.70%
9/28/2023 Initial Jobless Claims 201k
9/28/2023 GDP Price Index 2.00% 2.00%
9/28/2023 Continuing Claims 1662k
9/28/2023 Core PCE Price Index QoQ 3.70%
9/28/2023 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.90%
9/28/2023 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -13.80%
9/28/2023 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 0


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