September 21, 2023 Headlines

The market continues to digest yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which was on the hawkish end of the spectrum. While the Fed held the fed funds rate steady, as expected, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed only 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, less than half of what was projected in the June SEP. We had suggested this might happen in recent commentary and yields in the belly of the Treasury curve have repriced 10-12 basis points higher compared to Tuesday’s close in consideration of the ‘higher for longer’ narrative. The rest of the SEP was quite optimistic, including a higher median forecast for GDP growth and lower unemployment and inflation. One of my favorite economists humorously characterized this hopeful shift as the “Immaculate Disinflation.” The recent data trend clearly solidified their expectations that a soft landing is achievable, but getting inflation back down to 2% may indeed require more economic pain than the Fed currently anticipates. However, no distress was evident in today’s releases, with initial jobless claims falling to 201,000 last week, the lowest since late January.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/21/2023	Current Account Balance	-$220.0b	-$212.1b	-$219.3b	-$214.5b
9/21/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	225k	201k	220k	221k
9/21/2023	Continuing Claims	1692k	1662k	1688k	1683k
9/21/2023	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	-1	-13.5	12	—
9/21/2023	Existing Home Sales	4.10m	—	4.07m	—
9/21/2023	Existing Home Sales MoM	0.70%	—	-2.20%	—
9/21/2023	Leading Index	-0.50%	—	-0.40%	—
9/22/2023	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	48.2	—	47.9	—
9/22/2023	S&P Global US Services PMI	50.7	—	50.5	—
9/22/2023	S&P Global US Composite PMI	50.4	—	50.2	—
9/25/2023	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	—	—	0.12	—
9/25/2023	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	—	—	-17.2	—
9/26/2023	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	—	-13.1	—
9/26/2023	Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/26/2023	FHFA House Price Index MoM	—	—	0.30%	—
9/26/2023	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	—	—	0.92%	—
9/26/2023	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	—	—	-1.17%	—
9/26/2023	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	-0.02%	—
9/26/2023	New Home Sales	700k	—	714k	—
9/26/2023	New Home Sales MoM	-2.00%	—	4.40%	—
9/26/2023	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	106.5	—	106.1	—
9/26/2023	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	144.8	—
9/26/2023	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	80.2	—
9/26/2023	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	—	—	-7	—
9/26/2023	Richmond Fed Business Conditions	—	—	1	—
9/26/2023	Dallas Fed Services Activity	—	—	-2.7	—
9/27/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	5.40%	—
9/27/2023	Durable Goods Orders	-0.40%	—	-5.20%	—
9/27/2023	Durables Ex Transportation	0.10%	—	0.40%	—
9/27/2023	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.10%	—
9/27/2023	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.30%	—
9/28/2023	Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
9/28/2023	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.30%	—	2.10%	—
9/28/2023	Personal Consumption	—	—	1.70%	—
9/28/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	—	—	201k	—
9/28/2023	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	2.00%	—
9/28/2023	Continuing Claims	—	—	1662k	—
9/28/2023	Core PCE Price Index QoQ	—	—	3.70%	—
9/28/2023	Pending Home Sales MoM	—	—	0.90%	—
9/28/2023	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	-13.80%	—
9/28/2023	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	—	—	0	—

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