September 21, 2023 Headlines

The market continues to digest yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which was on the hawkish end of the spectrum. While the Fed held the fed funds rate steady, as expected, the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed only 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, less than half of what was projected in the June SEP. We had suggested this might happen in recent commentary and yields in the belly of the Treasury curve have repriced 10-12 basis points higher compared to Tuesday’s close in consideration of the ‘higher for longer’ narrative. The rest of the SEP was quite optimistic, including a higher median forecast for GDP growth and lower unemployment and inflation. One of my favorite economists humorously characterized this hopeful shift as the “Immaculate Disinflation.” The recent data trend clearly solidified their expectations that a soft landing is achievable, but getting inflation back down to 2% may indeed require more economic pain than the Fed currently anticipates. However, no distress was evident in today’s releases, with initial jobless claims falling to 201,000 last week, the lowest since late January.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

9/21/2023Current Account Balance-$220.0b-$212.1b-$219.3b-$214.5b
9/21/2023Initial Jobless Claims225k201k220k221k
9/21/2023Continuing Claims1692k1662k1688k1683k
9/21/2023Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-1-13.512
9/21/2023Existing Home Sales4.10m4.07m
9/21/2023Existing Home Sales MoM0.70%-2.20%
9/21/2023Leading Index-0.50%-0.40%
9/22/2023S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI48.247.9
9/22/2023S&P Global US Services PMI50.750.5
9/22/2023S&P Global US Composite PMI50.450.2
9/25/2023Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.12
9/25/2023Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-17.2
9/26/2023Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-13.1
9/26/2023Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
9/26/2023FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%
9/26/2023S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.92%
9/26/2023S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA-1.17%
9/26/2023S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA-0.02%
9/26/2023New Home Sales700k714k
9/26/2023New Home Sales MoM-2.00%4.40%
9/26/2023Conf. Board Consumer Confidence106.5106.1
9/26/2023Conf. Board Present Situation144.8
9/26/2023Conf. Board Expectations80.2
9/26/2023Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-7
9/26/2023Richmond Fed Business Conditions1
9/26/2023Dallas Fed Services Activity-2.7
9/27/2023MBA Mortgage Applications5.40%
9/27/2023Durable Goods Orders-0.40%-5.20%
9/27/2023Durables Ex Transportation0.10%0.40%
9/27/2023Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%
9/27/2023Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.30%
9/28/2023Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
9/28/2023GDP Annualized QoQ2.30%2.10%
9/28/2023Personal Consumption1.70%
9/28/2023Initial Jobless Claims201k
9/28/2023GDP Price Index2.00%2.00%
9/28/2023Continuing Claims1662k
9/28/2023Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.70%
9/28/2023Pending Home Sales MoM0.90%
9/28/2023Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-13.80%
9/28/2023Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity0


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