September 22, 2021 Headlines

All eyes are on the Fed today in global financial markets. A modest risk-on tone overnight has equity futures modestly higher ahead of the open, and Treasuries are little changed. There are two areas of focus for today’s Fed meeting. First, what will the committee decide regarding asset purchase tapering? Will a plan be announced today or simply set up for a future meeting (e.g., November 3)? Second, and perhaps more importantly, will be the release of the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This edition will include 2024 projections for the first time, giving market participants an initial look at the Fed’s guidance for 2024 rate hikes, growth, and inflation. If the committee provided a hawkish surprise today, it could be 1) the median dots showing a 2022 rate hike, and/or 2) a more aggressive rate hike schedule for 2024 than currently priced into the markets (approximately one 25 bps hike).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/20/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	74	76	75	—
09/21/21	Housing Starts	1550k	1615k	1534k	1554k
09/21/21	Housing Starts MoM	1.00%	3.90%	-7.00%	-6.20%
09/21/21	Building Permits	1600k	1728k	1635k	1630k
09/21/21	Building Permits MoM	-1.80%	6.00%	2.60%	2.30%
09/21/21	Current Account Balance	-$190.8b	-$190.3b	-$195.7b	-$189.4b
09/22/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	4.90%	0.30%	—
09/22/21	Existing Home Sales	5.89m	—	5.99m	—
09/22/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	-1.70%	—	2.00%	—
09/22/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
09/22/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	—	0.25%	—
09/22/21	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	0.15%	—	0.15%	—
09/23/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.5	—	0.53	—
09/23/21	Initial Jobless Claims	320k	—	332k	—
09/23/21	Continuing Claims	2600k	—	2665k	—
09/23/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	57.7	—
09/23/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	61	—	61.1	—
09/23/21	Markit US Services PMI	54.9	—	55.1	—
09/23/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	55.4	—
09/23/21	Leading Index	0.70%	—	0.90%	—
09/23/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	25	—	29	—
09/23/21	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$4997b	—
09/24/21	New Home Sales	712k	—	708k	—
09/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	0.60%	—	1.00%	—

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