September 22, 2021 Headlines

All eyes are on the Fed today in global financial markets. A modest risk-on tone overnight has equity futures modestly higher ahead of the open, and Treasuries are little changed. There are two areas of focus for today’s Fed meeting. First, what will the committee decide regarding asset purchase tapering? Will a plan be announced today or simply set up for a future meeting (e.g., November 3)? Second, and perhaps more importantly, will be the release of the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This edition will include 2024 projections for the first time, giving market participants an initial look at the Fed’s guidance for 2024 rate hikes, growth, and inflation. If the committee provided a hawkish surprise today, it could be 1) the median dots showing a 2022 rate hike, and/or 2) a more aggressive rate hike schedule for 2024 than currently priced into the markets (approximately one 25 bps hike).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/20/21NAHB Housing Market Index747675
09/21/21Housing Starts1550k1615k1534k1554k
09/21/21Housing Starts MoM1.00%3.90%-7.00%-6.20%
09/21/21Building Permits1600k1728k1635k1630k
09/21/21Building Permits MoM-1.80%6.00%2.60%2.30%
09/21/21Current Account Balance-$190.8b-$190.3b-$195.7b-$189.4b
09/22/21MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%0.30%
09/22/21Existing Home Sales5.89m5.99m
09/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-1.70%2.00%
09/22/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
09/22/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
09/22/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%
09/23/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.53
09/23/21Initial Jobless Claims320k332k
09/23/21Continuing Claims2600k2665k
09/23/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.7
09/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI6161.1
09/23/21Markit US Services PMI54.955.1
09/23/21Markit US Composite PMI55.4
09/23/21Leading Index0.70%0.90%
09/23/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2529
09/23/21Household Change in Net Worth$4997b
09/24/21New Home Sales712k708k
09/24/21New Home Sales MoM0.60%1.00%


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