September 23, 2021 Headlines

The curve is higher and steeper this morning with the belly and long-end up 5 to 6 bps while equity futures are up (Dow +0.75% and S&P +0.62%). The risk-on move is being driven by yesterday’s Fed meeting in which the central bank left open the possibility of continued stimulus in addition to the expected taper signal. Additionally, the current level of communication compared to what was provided in 2013 has helped bolster market confidence.

Initial jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected with 351,000 people filing for unemployment benefits compared to the median forecast of 320,000. This marks the second week in a row that jobless claims increased unexpectedly. It is important to remember that the weekly jobless claims data can be volatile and despite the recent upticks in the data, the labor market has generally strengthened and the number of claims has fallen dramatically since the start of this year.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
09/20/21NAHB Housing Market Index747675
09/21/21Housing Starts1550k1615k1534k1554k
09/21/21Housing Starts MoM1.00%3.90%-7.00%-6.20%
09/21/21Building Permits1600k1728k1635k1630k
09/21/21Building Permits MoM-1.80%6.00%2.60%2.30%
09/21/21Current Account Balance-$190.8b-$190.3b-$195.7b-$189.4b
09/22/21MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%0.30%
09/22/21Existing Home Sales5.89m5.88m5.99m6.00m
09/22/21Existing Home Sales MoM-1.70%-2.00%2.00%2.20%
09/22/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
09/22/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
09/22/21Interest on Reserve Balances Rate0.15%0.15%0.15%
09/23/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.50.290.530.75
09/23/21Initial Jobless Claims320k351k332k335k
09/23/21Continuing Claims2600k2845k2665k2714k
09/23/21Langer Consumer Comfort57.7
09/23/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI6161.1
09/23/21Markit US Services PMI54.955.1
09/23/21Markit US Composite PMI55.4
09/23/21Leading Index0.70%0.90%
09/23/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2529
09/23/21Household Change in Net Worth$4997b
09/24/21New Home Sales712k708k
09/24/21New Home Sales MoM0.60%1.00%

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