September 23, 2021 Headlines

The curve is higher and steeper this morning with the belly and long-end up 5 to 6 bps while equity futures are up (Dow +0.75% and S&P +0.62%). The risk-on move is being driven by yesterday’s Fed meeting in which the central bank left open the possibility of continued stimulus in addition to the expected taper signal. Additionally, the current level of communication compared to what was provided in 2013 has helped bolster market confidence.

Initial jobless claims came in slightly higher than expected with 351,000 people filing for unemployment benefits compared to the median forecast of 320,000. This marks the second week in a row that jobless claims increased unexpectedly. It is important to remember that the weekly jobless claims data can be volatile and despite the recent upticks in the data, the labor market has generally strengthened and the number of claims has fallen dramatically since the start of this year.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/20/21	NAHB Housing Market Index	74	76	75	—
09/21/21	Housing Starts	1550k	1615k	1534k	1554k
09/21/21	Housing Starts MoM	1.00%	3.90%	-7.00%	-6.20%
09/21/21	Building Permits	1600k	1728k	1635k	1630k
09/21/21	Building Permits MoM	-1.80%	6.00%	2.60%	2.30%
09/21/21	Current Account Balance	-$190.8b	-$190.3b	-$195.7b	-$189.4b
09/22/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	4.90%	0.30%	—
09/22/21	Existing Home Sales	5.89m	5.88m	5.99m	6.00m
09/22/21	Existing Home Sales MoM	-1.70%	-2.00%	2.00%	2.20%
09/22/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	—
09/22/21	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	—
09/22/21	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	0.15%	0.15%	0.15%	—
09/23/21	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.5	0.29	0.53	0.75
09/23/21	Initial Jobless Claims	320k	351k	332k	335k
09/23/21	Continuing Claims	2600k	2845k	2665k	2714k
09/23/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	57.7	—
09/23/21	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	61	—	61.1	—
09/23/21	Markit US Services PMI	54.9	—	55.1	—
09/23/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	55.4	—
09/23/21	Leading Index	0.70%	—	0.90%	—
09/23/21	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	25	—	29	—
09/23/21	Household Change in Net Worth	—	—	$4997b	—
09/24/21	New Home Sales	712k	—	708k	—
09/24/21	New Home Sales MoM	0.60%	—	1.00%	—

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