September 25, 2020 Headlines

In a continuation of this week’s market themes, concerns of fresh Covid-related restrictions in Europe and diminishing expectations of additional U.S. fiscal aid is weighing on risk assets this morning. Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the day, and both European and U.S. equity indices are weaker. The preliminary look at August durable goods orders was worse than expected, at least for the headline figures. Topline orders rose 0.4% on the month versus expectations of a 1.5% gain. However, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, referred to in economic circles as core orders, rose 1.8% (+1.0% expected). Core orders are used as a proxy for business investment, and core shipments exceeded expectations as well (1.5% vs. 0.8%). This week’s barrage of Fed speakers concludes today with appearances by John Williams (NY Fed) and Esther George (KC Fed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/21/20 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 1.19 0.79 1.18 2.54
9/21/20 Household Change in Net Worth — $7607b -$6548b -$7229b
9/22/20 Existing Home Sales 6.00m 6.00m 5.86m —
9/22/20 Existing Home Sales MoM 2.40% 2.40% 24.70% —
9/22/20 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 12 21 18 —
9/23/20 MBA Mortgage Applications — 6.80% -2.50% —
9/23/20 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.50% 1.00% 0.90% 1.00%
9/23/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.5 53.1 —
9/23/20 Markit US Services PMI 54.7 54.6 55 —
9/23/20 Markit US Composite PMI — 54.4 54.6 —
9/24/20 Initial Jobless Claims 840k 870k 860k 866k
9/24/20 Continuing Claims 12275k 12580k 12628k 12747k
9/24/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — 49.8 47.7 47.9
9/24/20 New Home Sales 890k 1011k 901k 965k
9/24/20 New Home Sales MoM -1.20% 4.80% 13.90% 14.70%
9/24/20 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 14 11 14 —
9/25/20 Durable Goods Orders 1.50% 0.40% 11.40% 11.70%
9/25/20 Durables Ex Transportation 1.00% 0.40% 2.60% 3.20%
9/25/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.00% 1.80% 1.90% 2.50%
9/25/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.80% 1.50% 2.40% 2.80%

 

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