September 25, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are selling off this morning as “higher-for-longer” talk weighs on bonds. The belly and long-end of the curve are 4 to 8 bps higher with the 10-year hitting a new post-crisis high of 4.50%. Comments from Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Bowman spurred the sell-off. Today’s calendar is light but picks up tomorrow with new home sales data and GDP on Thursday.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/25/23	Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index	0.1	-0.16	0.12	0.07
09/25/23	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-13	—	-17.2	—
09/26/23	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	—	-13.1	—
09/26/23	Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
09/26/23	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.40%	—	0.30%	—
09/26/23	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.70%	—	0.92%	—
09/26/23	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	-0.04%	—	-1.17%	—
09/26/23	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	—	-0.02%	—
09/26/23	New Home Sales	698k	—	714k	—
09/26/23	New Home Sales MoM	-2.20%	—	4.40%	—
09/26/23	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	105.5	—	106.1	—
09/26/23	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	144.8	—
09/26/23	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	80.2	—
09/26/23	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-7	—	-7	—
09/26/23	Richmond Fed Business Conditions	—	—	1	—
09/26/23	Dallas Fed Services Activity	—	—	-2.7	—
09/27/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	5.40%	—
09/27/23	Durable Goods Orders	-0.50%	—	-5.20%	—
09/27/23	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
09/27/23	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
09/27/23	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.00%	—	-0.30%	—
09/28/23	Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
09/28/23	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.20%	—	2.10%	—
09/28/23	Personal Consumption	1.70%	—	1.70%	—
09/28/23	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	2.00%	—
09/28/23	Core PCE Price Index QoQ	3.70%	—	3.70%	—
09/28/23	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	201k	—
09/28/23	Continuing Claims	1678k	—	1662k	—
09/28/23	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	—	0.90%	—
09/28/23	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	—	—	-13.80%	—
09/28/23	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-2	—	0	—
09/29/23	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$91.3b	—	-$91.2b	-$90.9b
09/29/23	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
09/29/23	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
09/29/23	Personal Income	0.40%	—	0.20%	—
09/29/23	Personal Spending	0.50%	—	0.80%	—
09/29/23	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	0.60%	—
09/29/23	PCE Deflator MoM	0.50%	—	0.20%	—
09/29/23	PCE Deflator YoY	3.50%	—	3.30%	—
09/29/23	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
09/29/23	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.90%	—	4.20%	—
09/29/23	MNI Chicago PMI	47.6	—	48.7	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.7	—	67.7	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	69.8	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	66.3	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.10%	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.70%	—
09/29/23	Kansas City Fed Services Activity	—	—	-1	—

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