September 26, 2023 Headlines

Yields are 2 to 4 bps lower this morning as the fear of a government shutdown weighs on investor sentiment. Equity futures are in negative territory due to the combination of restrictive monetary policy and fiscal uncertainty. Home prices continue to rise in the face of higher interest rates, the FHFA House Price Index rose by 0.8% in July vs an expectation of +0.4%. Additionally, the prior month’s increase was revised higher to 0.4% from 0.3%. Tight supply remains a major tailwind for house prices even if demand is tempered somewhat. Higher rates have also contributed to a stronger lock-in effect where homeowners are reluctant to sell their current homes which is exacerbating the supply issue.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

09/26/23Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
09/26/23Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-16.6-13.1
09/26/23FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.80%0.30%0.40%
09/26/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.70%0.90%0.92%
09/26/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA-0.10%0.10%-1.17%
09/26/23S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA1.00%-0.02%
09/26/23New Home Sales698k714k
09/26/23New Home Sales MoM-2.20%4.40%
09/26/23Conf. Board Consumer Confidence105.5106.1
09/26/23Conf. Board Present Situation144.8
09/26/23Conf. Board Expectations80.2
09/26/23Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-7-7
09/26/23Richmond Fed Business Conditions1
09/26/23Dallas Fed Services Activity-2.7
09/27/23MBA Mortgage Applications5.40%
09/27/23Durable Goods Orders-0.50%-5.20%
09/27/23Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.40%
09/27/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%0.10%
09/27/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.30%
09/28/23Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
09/28/23GDP Annualized QoQ2.20%2.10%
09/28/23Personal Consumption1.70%1.70%
09/28/23GDP Price Index2.00%2.00%
09/28/23Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.70%3.70%
09/28/23Initial Jobless Claims215k201k
09/28/23Continuing Claims1678k1662k
09/28/23Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%0.90%
09/28/23Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-12.00%-13.80%
09/28/23Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-20
09/29/23Advance Goods Trade Balance-$91.3b-$91.2b-$90.9b
09/29/23Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%-0.20%
09/29/23Retail Inventories MoM0.50%0.30%
09/29/23Personal Income0.40%0.20%
09/29/23Personal Spending0.50%0.80%
09/29/23Real Personal Spending0.00%0.60%
09/29/23PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.20%
09/29/23PCE Deflator YoY3.50%3.30%
09/29/23PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
09/29/23PCE Core Deflator YoY3.90%4.20%
09/29/23MNI Chicago PMI47.648.7
09/29/23U. of Mich. Sentiment67.767.7
09/29/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions69.8
09/29/23U. of Mich. Expectations66.3
09/29/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.10%
09/29/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%2.70%
09/29/23Kansas City Fed Services Activity-1


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