September 26, 2023 Headlines

Yields are 2 to 4 bps lower this morning as the fear of a government shutdown weighs on investor sentiment. Equity futures are in negative territory due to the combination of restrictive monetary policy and fiscal uncertainty. Home prices continue to rise in the face of higher interest rates, the FHFA House Price Index rose by 0.8% in July vs an expectation of +0.4%. Additionally, the prior month’s increase was revised higher to 0.4% from 0.3%. Tight supply remains a major tailwind for house prices even if demand is tempered somewhat. Higher rates have also contributed to a stronger lock-in effect where homeowners are reluctant to sell their current homes which is exacerbating the supply issue.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/26/23	Bloomberg Sept. United States Economic Survey
09/26/23	Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity	—	-16.6	-13.1	—
09/26/23	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.40%	0.80%	0.30%	0.40%
09/26/23	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.70%	0.90%	0.92%	—
09/26/23	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	-0.10%	0.10%	-1.17%	—
09/26/23	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	—	1.00%	-0.02%	—
09/26/23	New Home Sales	698k	—	714k	—
09/26/23	New Home Sales MoM	-2.20%	—	4.40%	—
09/26/23	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	105.5	—	106.1	—
09/26/23	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	144.8	—
09/26/23	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	80.2	—
09/26/23	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	-7	—	-7	—
09/26/23	Richmond Fed Business Conditions	—	—	1	—
09/26/23	Dallas Fed Services Activity	—	—	-2.7	—
09/27/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	5.40%	—
09/27/23	Durable Goods Orders	-0.50%	—	-5.20%	—
09/27/23	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
09/27/23	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.10%	—	0.10%	—
09/27/23	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	0.00%	—	-0.30%	—
09/28/23	Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
09/28/23	GDP Annualized QoQ	2.20%	—	2.10%	—
09/28/23	Personal Consumption	1.70%	—	1.70%	—
09/28/23	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	2.00%	—
09/28/23	Core PCE Price Index QoQ	3.70%	—	3.70%	—
09/28/23	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	201k	—
09/28/23	Continuing Claims	1678k	—	1662k	—
09/28/23	Pending Home Sales MoM	-1.00%	—	0.90%	—
09/28/23	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-12.00%	—	-13.80%	—
09/28/23	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	-2	—	0	—
09/29/23	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$91.3b	—	-$91.2b	-$90.9b
09/29/23	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.20%	—	-0.20%	—
09/29/23	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	—	0.30%	—
09/29/23	Personal Income	0.40%	—	0.20%	—
09/29/23	Personal Spending	0.50%	—	0.80%	—
09/29/23	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	—	0.60%	—
09/29/23	PCE Deflator MoM	0.50%	—	0.20%	—
09/29/23	PCE Deflator YoY	3.50%	—	3.30%	—
09/29/23	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
09/29/23	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.90%	—	4.20%	—
09/29/23	MNI Chicago PMI	47.6	—	48.7	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.7	—	67.7	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	69.8	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	66.3	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.10%	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.70%	—
09/29/23	Kansas City Fed Services Activity	—	—	-1	—

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