Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning amid relatively light volumes ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision. Asian equity markets did well overnight, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 4 points. A Reuters article reports that China is sharply reducing soybean purchases from the United States and instead sourcing much of the crop from Brazilian farmers amid ongoing trade tensions. Today’s Fed decision will come at 2pm ET. As we noted in yesterday’s commentary, the market will be focusing more on the Fed’s updated economic/rate projections, as well as any changes to the guidance in the official statement. More specifically, does the committee remove the word “accommodative” when describing current monetary policy?
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/24 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| 09/24 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 31 | 28.1 | 30.9 | — |
| 09/25 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.16% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.20% | 5.92% | 6.31% | 6.36% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 213.76 | 213.07 | 213.17 |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.35 | 204.48 | 204.44 |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.00% | 6.24% | 6.22% |
| 09/25 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 20 | 29 | 24 | — |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.1 | 138.4 | 133.4 | 134.7 |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 173.1 | 172.2 | 172.8 |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 115.3 | 107.6 | 109.3 |
| 09/26 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.90% | 1.60% | — |
| 09/26 | New Home Sales | 630k | — | 627k | — |
| 09/26 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 09/26 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.25% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 09/26 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.00% | — | 1.75% | — |
| 09/26 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | — | — | 1.95% | — |
| 09/27 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$70.6b | — | -$72.2b | -$72.0b |
| 09/27 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/27 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.40% | 0.50% |
| 09/27 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 09/27 | Personal Consumption | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 09/27 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | — | -1.70% | — |
| 09/27 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/27 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 09/27 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | — | 201k | — |
| 09/27 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | — | 1645k | — |
| 09/27 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 60.2 | — |
| 09/27 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 09/27 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -1.00% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 09/27 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | — | 14 | — |
| 09/28 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 09/28 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 09/28 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Core YoY | 2.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 09/28 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 62 | — | 63.6 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.5 | — | 100.8 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 116.1 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 91.1 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |