Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning amid relatively light volumes ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision. Asian equity markets did well overnight, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 4 points.  A Reuters article reports that China is sharply reducing soybean purchases from the United States and instead sourcing much of the crop from Brazilian farmers amid ongoing trade tensions. Today’s Fed decision will come at 2pm ET. As we noted in yesterday’s commentary, the market will be focusing more on the Fed’s updated economic/rate projections, as well as any changes to the guidance in the official statement. More specifically, does the committee remove the word “accommodative” when describing current monetary policy?

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


09/24Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.
09/24Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3128.130.9
09/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.30%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%0.11%0.16%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.20%5.92%6.31%6.36%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.76213.07213.17
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35204.48204.44
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.00%6.24%6.22%
09/25Richmond Fed Manufact. Index202924
09/25Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.1138.4133.4134.7
09/25Conf. Board Present Situation173.1172.2172.8
09/25Conf. Board Expectations115.3107.6109.3
09/26MBA Mortgage Applications2.90%1.60%
09/26New Home Sales630k627k
09/26New Home Sales MoM0.50%-1.70%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.00%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%1.75%
09/26Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.95%
09/27Advance Goods Trade Balance-$70.6b-$72.2b-$72.0b
09/27Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.60%
09/27Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.50%
09/27GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.20%
09/27Personal Consumption3.80%3.80%
09/27GDP Price Index3.00%3.00%
09/27Core PCE QoQ2.00%2.00%
09/27Durable Goods Orders2.00%-1.70%
09/27Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.10%
09/27Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%1.60%
09/27Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%1.00%
09/27Initial Jobless Claims210k201k
09/27Continuing Claims1678k1645k
09/27Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.2
09/27Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-0.70%
09/27Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.00%-0.50%
09/27Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1714
09/28Personal Income0.40%0.30%
09/28Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
09/28Real Personal Spending0.20%0.20%
09/28PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
09/28PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.30%
09/28PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
09/28PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%
09/28Chicago Purchasing Manager6263.6
09/28U. of Mich. Sentiment100.5100.8
09/28U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.1
09/28U. of Mich. Expectations91.1
09/28U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
09/28U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%