The Treasury curve is steeper this morning ahead of today’s release of the White House tax reform plan, with the 10-year yield above 2.30% for the first time since late July. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight, and both European and U.S. equity markets are modestly higher. Details of the tax plan have been leaked for several days, so the actual announcement shouldn’t offer any major surprises, although the President will be speaking on the topic this afternoon (you never know). Most everyone agrees that the announcement will be just the beginning of a long and bitter negotiation, and there’s no guarantee that a bill is ever passed (see healthcare reform).
The August durable goods orders report came in better than expected, with growth in headline orders up 1.7% versus expectations of a 1% gain. More importantly, capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.9% versus 0.3% expected. This category is used as a proxy for business investment, and August shipments of capital goods orders were also higher than expected.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
09/27/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications22-Sep-0.50%-9.70%
09/27/2017 08:30Durable Goods OrdersAug P1.00%1.70%-6.80%
09/27/2017 08:30Durables Ex TransportationAug P0.20%0.20%0.60%0.80%
09/27/2017 08:30Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirAug P0.30%0.90%1.00%1.10%
09/27/2017 08:30Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirAug P0.10%0.70%1.20%1.10%
09/27/2017 10:00Pending Home Sales MoMAug-0.50%-2.60%-0.80%
09/27/2017 10:00Pending Home Sales NSA YoYAug-0.50%-3.10%-0.50%
09/28/2017 08:30GDP Annualized QoQ2Q T3.00%3.00%
09/28/2017 08:30Personal Consumption2Q T3.30%3.30%
09/28/2017 08:30GDP Price Index2Q T1.00%1.00%
09/28/2017 08:30Core PCE QoQ2Q T0.90%0.90%
09/28/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims23-Sep270k259k
09/28/2017 08:30Continuing Claims16-Sep1993k1980k
09/28/2017 08:30Advance Goods Trade BalanceAug-$65.1b-$65.1b-$63.9b
09/28/2017 08:30Wholesale Inventories MoMAug P0.40%0.60%
09/28/2017 08:30Retail Inventories MoMAug-0.20%-0.10%
09/28/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort24-Sep50.6
09/28/2017 11:00Kansas City Fed Manf. ActivitySep1516
09/29/2017 08:30Personal IncomeAug0.20%0.40%
09/29/2017 08:30Personal SpendingAug0.10%0.30%
09/29/2017 08:30Real Personal SpendingAug-0.10%0.20%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Deflator MoMAug0.30%0.10%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Deflator YoYAug1.50%1.40%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Core MoMAug0.20%0.10%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Core YoYAug1.40%1.40%
09/29/2017 09:45Chicago Purchasing ManagerSep58.758.9
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. SentimentSep F95.395.3
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. Current ConditionsSep F113.9
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. ExpectationsSep F83.4
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationSep F2.70%
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationSep F2.60%
10/02/2017 09:45Markit US Manufacturing PMISep F53
10/02/2017 10:00ISM ManufacturingSep57.558.8
10/02/2017 10:00ISM Prices PaidSep6462
10/02/2017 10:00ISM New OrdersSep60.3
10/02/2017 10:00ISM EmploymentSep59.9
10/02/2017 10:00Construction Spending MoMAug0.40%-0.60%
10/03/2017Wards Total Vehicle SalesSep16.60m16.03m
10/03/2017Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesSep12.50m12.48m
10/04/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications29-Sep-0.50%
10/04/2017 08:15ADP Employment ChangeSep160k237k
10/04/2017 09:45Markit US Services PMISep F55.1
10/04/2017 09:45Markit US Composite PMISep F54.6
10/04/2017 10:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeSep55.155.3