The Treasury curve is steeper this morning ahead of today’s release of the White House tax reform plan, with the 10-year yield above 2.30% for the first time since late July. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight, and both European and U.S. equity markets are modestly higher. Details of the tax plan have been leaked for several days, so the actual announcement shouldn’t offer any major surprises, although the President will be speaking on the topic this afternoon (you never know). Most everyone agrees that the announcement will be just the beginning of a long and bitter negotiation, and there’s no guarantee that a bill is ever passed (see healthcare reform).
The August durable goods orders report came in better than expected, with growth in headline orders up 1.7% versus expectations of a 1% gain. More importantly, capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.9% versus 0.3% expected. This category is used as a proxy for business investment, and August shipments of capital goods orders were also higher than expected.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Time Event   Survey Actual Prior Revised
09/27/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 22-Sep -0.50% -9.70%
09/27/2017 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Aug P 1.00% 1.70% -6.80%
09/27/2017 08:30 Durables Ex Transportation Aug P 0.20% 0.20% 0.60% 0.80%
09/27/2017 08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug P 0.30% 0.90% 1.00% 1.10%
09/27/2017 08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug P 0.10% 0.70% 1.20% 1.10%
09/27/2017 10:00 Pending Home Sales MoM Aug -0.50% -2.60% -0.80%
09/27/2017 10:00 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY Aug -0.50% -3.10% -0.50%
09/28/2017 08:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 3.00% 3.00%
09/28/2017 08:30 Personal Consumption 2Q T 3.30% 3.30%
09/28/2017 08:30 GDP Price Index 2Q T 1.00% 1.00%
09/28/2017 08:30 Core PCE QoQ 2Q T 0.90% 0.90%
09/28/2017 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 23-Sep 270k 259k
09/28/2017 08:30 Continuing Claims 16-Sep 1993k 1980k
09/28/2017 08:30 Advance Goods Trade Balance Aug -$65.1b -$65.1b -$63.9b
09/28/2017 08:30 Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug P 0.40% 0.60%
09/28/2017 08:30 Retail Inventories MoM Aug -0.20% -0.10%
09/28/2017 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 24-Sep 50.6
09/28/2017 11:00 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Sep 15 16
09/29/2017 08:30 Personal Income Aug 0.20% 0.40%
09/29/2017 08:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.10% 0.30%
09/29/2017 08:30 Real Personal Spending Aug -0.10% 0.20%
09/29/2017 08:30 PCE Deflator MoM Aug 0.30% 0.10%
09/29/2017 08:30 PCE Deflator YoY Aug 1.50% 1.40%
09/29/2017 08:30 PCE Core MoM Aug 0.20% 0.10%
09/29/2017 08:30 PCE Core YoY Aug 1.40% 1.40%
09/29/2017 09:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager Sep 58.7 58.9
09/29/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F 95.3 95.3
09/29/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Current Conditions Sep F 113.9
09/29/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. Expectations Sep F 83.4
09/29/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Sep F 2.70%
09/29/2017 10:00 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Sep F 2.60%
10/02/2017 09:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep F 53
10/02/2017 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Sep 57.5 58.8
10/02/2017 10:00 ISM Prices Paid Sep 64 62
10/02/2017 10:00 ISM New Orders Sep 60.3
10/02/2017 10:00 ISM Employment Sep 59.9
10/02/2017 10:00 Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.40% -0.60%
10/03/2017 Wards Total Vehicle Sales Sep 16.60m 16.03m
10/03/2017 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Sep 12.50m 12.48m
10/04/2017 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 29-Sep -0.50%
10/04/2017 08:15 ADP Employment Change Sep 160k 237k
10/04/2017 09:45 Markit US Services PMI Sep F 55.1
10/04/2017 09:45 Markit US Composite PMI Sep F 54.6
10/04/2017 10:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep 55.1 55.3