The Treasury curve is steeper this morning ahead of today’s release of the White House tax reform plan, with the 10-year yield above 2.30% for the first time since late July. Asian equity markets were mixed overnight, and both European and U.S. equity markets are modestly higher. Details of the tax plan have been leaked for several days, so the actual announcement shouldn’t offer any major surprises, although the President will be speaking on the topic this afternoon (you never know). Most everyone agrees that the announcement will be just the beginning of a long and bitter negotiation, and there’s no guarantee that a bill is ever passed (see healthcare reform).
The August durable goods orders report came in better than expected, with growth in headline orders up 1.7% versus expectations of a 1% gain. More importantly, capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.9% versus 0.3% expected. This category is used as a proxy for business investment, and August shipments of capital goods orders were also higher than expected.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 09/27/2017 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 22-Sep | — | -0.50% | -9.70% | — |
| 09/27/2017 08:30 | Durable Goods Orders | Aug P | 1.00% | 1.70% | -6.80% | — |
| 09/27/2017 08:30 | Durables Ex Transportation | Aug P | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 09/27/2017 08:30 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Aug P | 0.30% | 0.90% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
| 09/27/2017 08:30 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Aug P | 0.10% | 0.70% | 1.20% | 1.10% |
| 09/27/2017 10:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | Aug | -0.50% | -2.60% | -0.80% | — |
| 09/27/2017 10:00 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | Aug | -0.50% | -3.10% | -0.50% | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2Q T | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Personal Consumption | 2Q T | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | GDP Price Index | 2Q T | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Core PCE QoQ | 2Q T | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 23-Sep | 270k | — | 259k | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Continuing Claims | 16-Sep | 1993k | — | 1980k | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | Aug | -$65.1b | — | -$65.1b | -$63.9b |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Aug P | 0.40% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 09/28/2017 08:30 | Retail Inventories MoM | Aug | — | — | -0.20% | -0.10% |
| 09/28/2017 09:45 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 24-Sep | — | — | 50.6 | — |
| 09/28/2017 11:00 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | Sep | 15 | — | 16 | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | Personal Income | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | Personal Spending | Aug | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | Real Personal Spending | Aug | -0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | PCE Deflator MoM | Aug | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | PCE Deflator YoY | Aug | 1.50% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | PCE Core MoM | Aug | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 09/29/2017 08:30 | PCE Core YoY | Aug | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 09/29/2017 09:45 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | Sep | 58.7 | — | 58.9 | — |
| 09/29/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Sep F | 95.3 | — | 95.3 | — |
| 09/29/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Sep F | — | — | 113.9 | — |
| 09/29/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Sep F | — | — | 83.4 | — |
| 09/29/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Sep F | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 09/29/2017 10:00 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Sep F | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 10/02/2017 09:45 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Sep F | — | — | 53 | — |
| 10/02/2017 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing | Sep | 57.5 | — | 58.8 | — |
| 10/02/2017 10:00 | ISM Prices Paid | Sep | 64 | — | 62 | — |
| 10/02/2017 10:00 | ISM New Orders | Sep | — | — | 60.3 | — |
| 10/02/2017 10:00 | ISM Employment | Sep | — | — | 59.9 | — |
| 10/02/2017 10:00 | Construction Spending MoM | Aug | 0.40% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 10/03/2017 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Sep | 16.60m | — | 16.03m | — |
| 10/03/2017 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | Sep | 12.50m | — | 12.48m | — |
| 10/04/2017 07:00 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 29-Sep | — | — | -0.50% | — |
| 10/04/2017 08:15 | ADP Employment Change | Sep | 160k | — | 237k | — |
| 10/04/2017 09:45 | Markit US Services PMI | Sep F | — | — | 55.1 | — |
| 10/04/2017 09:45 | Markit US Composite PMI | Sep F | — | — | 54.6 | — |
| 10/04/2017 10:00 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | Sep | 55.1 | — | 55.3 | — |