September 27, 2019 Headlines

Some positive trade comments overnight by a Chinese official boosted risk markets, but investors are now digesting several U.S. economic releases, which were generally mixed. Treasury prices are slightly lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.24%. Reuters reported that China’s top diplomat said his country is willing to buy more U.S. goods and that trade negotiations will be constructive if both parties take “more enthusiastic measures” to show goodwill and reduce “pessimistic language.”

August personal income growth was in line with expectations, rising 0.4% from the prior month, but spending was more subdued, rising 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.3% gain. For inflation, core PCE rose just 0.1% in August (0.2% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core PCE was up 1.8%, as expected and up 10 bps from the prior month. Lastly, the first estimate of August durable goods orders was better than expected for headline data, but capital goods orders fell 0.2% on the month (0.0% expected). The latter is a proxy for business investment, which has been a soft spot for the domestic and global economy over the last year.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/23/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.030.1-0.36-0.41
9/23/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.45150.3—
9/23/2019Markit US Services PMI51.450.950.7—
9/23/2019Markit US Composite PMI—5150.7—
9/24/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.40%0.20%—
9/24/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.02%0.04%0.06%
9/24/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.10%2.00%2.13%2.16%
9/24/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index—218217.65217.72
9/24/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA2.90%3.18%3.13%3.25%
9/24/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—211.72210.71210.9
9/24/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1-91—
9/24/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence133125.1135.1134.2
9/24/2019Conf. Board Present Situation—169177.2176
9/24/2019Conf. Board Expectations—95.8107106.4
9/25/2019MBA Mortgage Applications—-10.10%-0.10%—
9/25/2019New Home Sales659k713k635k666k
9/25/2019New Home Sales MoM3.80%7.10%-12.80%-8.60%
9/26/2019GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%2.00%2.00%—
9/26/2019Personal Consumption4.70%4.60%4.70%—
9/26/2019GDP Price Index2.40%2.40%2.40%—
9/26/2019Core PCE QoQ1.70%1.90%1.70%—
9/26/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.4b-$72.8b-$72.3b-$72.5b
9/26/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.10%0.00%0.80%0.70%
9/26/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%0.40%0.20%0.10%
9/26/2019Initial Jobless Claims212k213k208k210k
9/26/2019Continuing Claims1666k1650k1661k1665k
9/26/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort—61.762.7—
9/26/2019Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%1.60%-2.50%—
9/26/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY1.30%1.10%1.70%—
9/26/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-4-2-6—
9/27/2019Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.10%—
9/27/2019Personal Spending0.30%0.10%0.60%0.50%
9/27/2019Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%0.40%0.30%
9/27/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%0.20%—
9/27/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.40%1.40%—
9/27/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%—
9/27/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.80%1.80%1.60%1.70%
9/27/2019Durable Goods Orders-1.10%0.20%2.00%—
9/27/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.50%-0.40%-0.50%
9/27/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.20%0.20%0.00%
9/27/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.40%-0.60%—
9/27/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment92.193.292—
9/27/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions—108.5106.9—
9/27/2019U. of Mich. Expectations—83.482.4—
9/27/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation—2.80%2.80%—
9/27/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation—2.40%2.30%—

 

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