Some positive trade comments overnight by a Chinese official boosted risk markets, but investors are now digesting several U.S. economic releases, which were generally mixed. Treasury prices are slightly lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.24%. Reuters reported that China’s top diplomat said his country is willing to buy more U.S. goods and that trade negotiations will be constructive if both parties take “more enthusiastic measures” to show goodwill and reduce “pessimistic language.”
August personal income growth was in line with expectations, rising 0.4% from the prior month, but spending was more subdued, rising 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.3% gain. For inflation, core PCE rose just 0.1% in August (0.2% expected), and on a year-over-year basis, core PCE was up 1.8%, as expected and up 10 bps from the prior month. Lastly, the first estimate of August durable goods orders was better than expected for headline data, but capital goods orders fell 0.2% on the month (0.0% expected). The latter is a proxy for business investment, which has been a soft spot for the domestic and global economy over the last year.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
9/23/2019 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | -0.03 | 0.1 | -0.36 | -0.41 |
9/23/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50.4 | 51 | 50.3 | — |
9/23/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 51.4 | 50.9 | 50.7 | — |
9/23/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 51 | 50.7 | — |
9/24/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
9/24/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.06% |
9/24/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 2.10% | 2.00% | 2.13% | 2.16% |
9/24/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 218 | 217.65 | 217.72 |
9/24/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 2.90% | 3.18% | 3.13% | 3.25% |
9/24/2019 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 211.72 | 210.71 | 210.9 |
9/24/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 1 | -9 | 1 | — |
9/24/2019 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 133 | 125.1 | 135.1 | 134.2 |
9/24/2019 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 169 | 177.2 | 176 |
9/24/2019 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 95.8 | 107 | 106.4 |
9/25/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -10.10% | -0.10% | — |
9/25/2019 | New Home Sales | 659k | 713k | 635k | 666k |
9/25/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.80% | 7.10% | -12.80% | -8.60% |
9/26/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | — |
9/26/2019 | Personal Consumption | 4.70% | 4.60% | 4.70% | — |
9/26/2019 | GDP Price Index | 2.40% | 2.40% | 2.40% | — |
9/26/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.70% | 1.90% | 1.70% | — |
9/26/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$73.4b | -$72.8b | -$72.3b | -$72.5b |
9/26/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.80% | 0.70% |
9/26/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.10% |
9/26/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | 213k | 208k | 210k |
9/26/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1666k | 1650k | 1661k | 1665k |
9/26/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 61.7 | 62.7 | — |
9/26/2019 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | 1.60% | -2.50% | — |
9/26/2019 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 1.30% | 1.10% | 1.70% | — |
9/26/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -4 | -2 | -6 | — |
9/27/2019 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.10% | — |
9/27/2019 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.60% | 0.50% |
9/27/2019 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.30% |
9/27/2019 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.20% | — |
9/27/2019 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.40% | 1.40% | 1.40% | — |
9/27/2019 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
9/27/2019 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.80% | 1.80% | 1.60% | 1.70% |
9/27/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.10% | 0.20% | 2.00% | — |
9/27/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | 0.50% | -0.40% | -0.50% |
9/27/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | -0.20% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
9/27/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | 0.40% | -0.60% | — |
9/27/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 92.1 | 93.2 | 92 | — |
9/27/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | 108.5 | 106.9 | — |
9/27/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | 83.4 | 82.4 | — |
9/27/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | 2.80% | 2.80% | — |
9/27/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | 2.40% | 2.30% | — |
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