September 27, 2021 Headlines

The US Treasury curve bear steepened overnight as a recent surge in oil prices renewed inflation concerns and heavy supply pressured long-end yields. Futures contracts on WTI crude are up 1.97% to a 3-year high of 75.44 a barrel as output disruptions have caused energy companies to reduce inventories. In the United Kingdom, panic buying has left up to 90% of fuel pumps dry in major British cities. Later today, the US Treasury provide additional supply with $121bln split between a 2 and 5-year auction.  The economic calendar is relatively light as Q3 ends but several Fed speakers are expected to speak this week, including Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony to House oversight committees. 

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/27/2021Durable Goods Orders0.70%1.80%-0.10%0.50%
9/27/2021Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.20%0.80%—
9/27/2021Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.50%0.10%0.30%
9/27/2021Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.70%0.90%—
9/27/2021Dallas Fed Manf. Activity11—9—
9/28/2021Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.3b—-$86.4b—
9/28/2021Wholesale Inventories MoM0.80%—0.60%—
9/28/2021Retail Inventories MoM0.40%—0.40%—
9/28/2021FHFA House Price Index MoM1.50%—1.60%—
9/28/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.67%—1.77%—
9/28/2021S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA20.00%—19.08%—
9/28/2021S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——18.61%—
9/28/2021Conf. Board Consumer Confidence115—113.8—
9/28/2021Conf. Board Present Situation——147.3—
9/28/2021Conf. Board Expectations——91.4—
9/28/2021Richmond Fed Manufact. Index11—9—
9/29/2021MBA Mortgage Applications——4.90%—
9/29/2021Pending Home Sales MoM1.00%—-1.80%—
9/29/2021Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-9.50%—
9/30/2021Initial Jobless Claims330k—351k—
9/30/2021Continuing Claims2800k—2845k—
9/30/2021GDP Annualized QoQ6.60%—6.60%—
9/30/2021Personal Consumption11.90%—11.90%—
9/30/2021GDP Price Index6.10%—6.10%—
9/30/2021Core PCE QoQ6.10%—6.10%—
9/30/2021Langer Consumer Comfort——56.3—
9/30/2021MNI Chicago PMI65—66.8—
10/1/2021Personal Income0.20%—1.10%—
10/1/2021Personal Spending0.60%—0.30%—
10/1/2021Real Personal Spending0.40%—-0.10%—
10/1/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%—0.40%—
10/1/2021PCE Deflator YoY4.20%—4.20%—
10/1/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%—0.30%—
10/1/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.50%—3.60%—
10/1/2021Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.5—60.5—
10/1/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment71—71—
10/1/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions——77.1—
10/1/2021U. of Mich. Expectations——67.1—
10/1/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——4.70%—
10/1/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.90%—
10/1/2021Construction Spending MoM0.30%—0.30%—
10/1/2021ISM Manufacturing59.5—59.9—
10/1/2021ISM Prices Paid77.5—79.4—
10/1/2021ISM New Orders——66.7—
10/1/2021ISM Employment——49—
10/1/2021Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.20m—13.06m—

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