The Treasury curve is about a basis point higher across all tenors as equity markets and the US dollar pushed higher in response to yesterday’s FOMC meeting. As expected, the Fed increased its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Additionally, the committee removed the word “accommodative” from any references to current monetary policy which is an acknowledgement that the current policy is closer to neutral.

The Commerce Department released the third estimate of second quarter GDP this morning which came in at an annualized pace of 4.2%; which is the fast pace since 2014. The details from this second revision showed that household purchases remained the largest driver of the expansion, contributing 2.57 percentage points up from the last revision of 2.55 points. As the third quarter comes to a close, economists are expecting a slower pace of expansion, with a median forecast of 3%; while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking tool shows a pace of 4.4%.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
09/24Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.20.180.130.18
09/24Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3128.130.9
09/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.30%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%0.11%0.16%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.20%5.92%6.31%6.36%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.76213.07213.17
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35204.48204.44
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.00%6.24%6.22%
09/25Richmond Fed Manufact. Index202924
09/25Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.1138.4133.4134.7
09/25Conf. Board Present Situation173.1172.2172.8
09/25Conf. Board Expectations115.3107.6109.3
09/26MBA Mortgage Applications2.90%1.60%
09/26New Home Sales630k629k627k608k
09/26New Home Sales MoM0.50%3.50%-1.70%-1.60%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.25%2.00%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%2.00%1.75%
09/26Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.20%1.95%
09/27Advance Goods Trade Balance-$70.6b-$75.8b-$72.2b-$72.0b
09/27Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.80%0.60%
09/27Retail Inventories MoM0.70%0.40%0.60%
09/27GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.20%4.20%
09/27Personal Consumption3.80%3.80%3.80%
09/27GDP Price Index3.00%3.00%3.00%
09/27Core PCE QoQ2.00%2.10%2.00%
09/27Durable Goods Orders2.00%4.50%-1.70%
09/27Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.10%0.10%0.20%
09/27Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.50%1.60%1.50%
09/27Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.10%1.00%1.10%
09/27Initial Jobless Claims210k214k201k202k
09/27Continuing Claims1678k1661k1645k
09/27Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.260.2
09/27Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-0.70%
09/27Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.00%-0.50%
09/27Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1714
09/28Personal Income0.40%0.30%
09/28Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
09/28Real Personal Spending0.20%0.20%
09/28PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
09/28PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.30%
09/28PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%
09/28PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%
09/28Chicago Purchasing Manager6263.6
09/28U. of Mich. Sentiment100.5100.8
09/28U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.1
09/28U. of Mich. Expectations91.1
09/28U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
09/28U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%