The release of Italy’s projected budget deficit sparked a risk-off trade in Europe overnight and is pushing Treasury prices modestly higher across the curve. European equity markets are down nearly 2% (Italian index -4.5%), and S&P 500 futures are down 8 points currently. Personal income and spending both rose at a 0.3% rate in August, with income growth just below expectations. The August PCE inflation report was relatively tame. The core measure was flat over the month versus expectations of a 0.1% increase, and on a year-over-year basis, PCE core was up 2%, as expected and unchanged from the prior month. Next week’s calendar is headlined by the September jobs report.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 09/24 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.2 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| 09/24 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 31 | 28.1 | 30.9 | — |
| 09/25 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.16% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.20% | 5.92% | 6.31% | 6.36% |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 213.76 | 213.07 | 213.17 |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 205.35 | 204.48 | 204.44 |
| 09/25 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.00% | 6.24% | 6.22% |
| 09/25 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 20 | 29 | 24 | — |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 132.1 | 138.4 | 133.4 | 134.7 |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 173.1 | 172.2 | 172.8 |
| 09/25 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 115.3 | 107.6 | 109.3 |
| 09/26 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.90% | 1.60% | — |
| 09/26 | New Home Sales | 630k | 629k | 627k | 608k |
| 09/26 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | 3.50% | -1.70% | -1.60% |
| 09/26 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.00% | — |
| 09/26 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 2.00% | 2.00% | 1.75% | — |
| 09/26 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | — | 2.20% | 1.95% | — |
| 09/27 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$70.6b | -$75.8b | -$72.2b | -$72.0b |
| 09/27 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | 0.80% | 0.60% | — |
| 09/27 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.60% |
| 09/27 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.20% | — |
| 09/27 | Personal Consumption | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.80% | — |
| 09/27 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.00% | 2.10% | 2.00% | — |
| 09/27 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | 4.50% | -1.70% | — |
| 09/27 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 09/27 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.40% | -0.50% | 1.60% | 1.50% |
| 09/27 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.10% | 1.00% | 1.10% |
| 09/27 | Initial Jobless Claims | 210k | 214k | 201k | 202k |
| 09/27 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | 1661k | 1645k | — |
| 09/27 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 61.2 | 60.2 | — |
| 09/27 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | -1.80% | -0.70% | -0.80% |
| 09/27 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -1.00% | -2.50% | -0.50% | -0.70% |
| 09/27 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 17 | 13 | 14 | — |
| 09/28 | Personal Income | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 09/28 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 09/28 | Real Personal Spending | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| 09/28 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.30% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Core MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.20% | — |
| 09/28 | PCE Core YoY | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | — |
| 09/28 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 62 | — | 63.6 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 100.6 | — | 100.8 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 116.1 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 91.1 | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 09/28 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.40% | — |