The release of Italy’s projected budget deficit sparked a risk-off trade in Europe overnight and is pushing Treasury prices modestly higher across the curve. European equity markets are down nearly 2% (Italian index -4.5%), and S&P 500 futures are down 8 points currently. Personal income and spending both rose at a 0.3% rate in August, with income growth just below expectations. The August PCE inflation report was relatively tame. The core measure was flat over the month versus expectations of a 0.1% increase, and on a year-over-year basis, PCE core was up 2%, as expected and unchanged from the prior month. Next week’s calendar is headlined by the September jobs report.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


09/24Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.
09/24Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3128.130.9
09/25FHFA House Price Index MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.30%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%0.11%0.16%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.20%5.92%6.31%6.36%
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.76213.07213.17
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35204.48204.44
09/25S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.00%6.24%6.22%
09/25Richmond Fed Manufact. Index202924
09/25Conf. Board Consumer Confidence132.1138.4133.4134.7
09/25Conf. Board Present Situation173.1172.2172.8
09/25Conf. Board Expectations115.3107.6109.3
09/26MBA Mortgage Applications2.90%1.60%
09/26New Home Sales630k629k627k608k
09/26New Home Sales MoM0.50%3.50%-1.70%-1.60%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)2.25%2.25%2.00%
09/26FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)2.00%2.00%1.75%
09/26Interest Rate on Excess Reserves2.20%1.95%
09/27Advance Goods Trade Balance-$70.6b-$75.8b-$72.2b-$72.0b
09/27Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.80%0.60%
09/27Retail Inventories MoM0.70%0.40%0.60%
09/27GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.20%4.20%
09/27Personal Consumption3.80%3.80%3.80%
09/27GDP Price Index3.00%3.00%3.00%
09/27Core PCE QoQ2.00%2.10%2.00%
09/27Durable Goods Orders2.00%4.50%-1.70%
09/27Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.10%0.10%0.20%
09/27Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%-0.50%1.60%1.50%
09/27Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.10%1.00%1.10%
09/27Initial Jobless Claims210k214k201k202k
09/27Continuing Claims1678k1661k1645k
09/27Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.260.2
09/27Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-1.80%-0.70%-0.80%
09/27Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-1.00%-2.50%-0.50%-0.70%
09/27Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity171314
09/28Personal Income0.40%0.30%0.30%
09/28Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.40%
09/28Real Personal Spending0.20%0.20%0.20%0.30%
09/28PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
09/28PCE Deflator YoY2.20%2.20%2.30%
09/28PCE Core MoM0.10%0.00%0.20%
09/28PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%2.00%
09/28Chicago Purchasing Manager6263.6
09/28U. of Mich. Sentiment100.6100.8
09/28U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.1
09/28U. of Mich. Expectations91.1
09/28U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
09/28U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%