Treasuries were little changed in a fairly quiet overnight session, but prices are beginning to drift higher this morning following the release of the August PCE inflation report.  As expected, the GOP’s initial tax plan is coming under intense scrutiny, particularly the proposed elimination of the state and local tax deduction, but as many observers understand, this will be a drawn out and tedious battle over the next several months.  As Senator Bob Corker (R-TN) said yesterday, “tax reform is going to make health care look like a piece of cake, if we do it the right way.”  Some analysts suggested tax reform might be less controversial than healthcare (and easier to navigate), but nothing is easy in Congress these days. Corker’s condition at the end of the statement is important as well. A comprehensive tax reform package would be the first such effort since the mid-1980’s, and it would undoubtedly take a long time to negotiate (more than 6 months).  However, there is a good chance that we see either a very watered-down version or no deal at all.

August personal income and spending growth was right in line with expectations, rising 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.  However, both headline and core PCE came in below expectations. The PCE deflator (headline measure) rose 0.2% (0.3% expected) in August from the prior month, and the deflator was unchanged on a year-over-year basis at 1.4% (1.5% expected).  More importantly, core PCE rose just 0.1% m/m and 1.3% y/y.  Core CPI surprised to the upside in August for the first time in six months, and it was largely attributable to firming in shelter costs.  Core PCE has a much smaller weighting for shelter in its calculation, which might explain the weaker August print. The Fed appears motivated to move forward with a December rate hike, but if core inflation measures persist lower in the next few months, it may make it a much tougher sale for the doves of the FOMC.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
09/29/2017 08:30Personal IncomeAug0.20%0.20%0.40%0.30%
09/29/2017 08:30Personal SpendingAug0.10%0.10%0.30%
09/29/2017 08:30Real Personal SpendingAug-0.10%-0.10%0.20%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Deflator MoMAug0.30%0.20%0.10%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Deflator YoYAug1.50%1.40%1.40%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Core MoMAug0.20%0.10%0.10%
09/29/2017 08:30PCE Core YoYAug1.40%1.30%1.40%
09/29/2017 09:45Chicago Purchasing ManagerSep58.758.9
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. SentimentSep F95.395.3
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. Current ConditionsSep F113.9
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. ExpectationsSep F83.4
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 1 Yr InflationSep F2.70%
09/29/2017 10:00U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr InflationSep F2.60%
10/02/2017 09:45Markit US Manufacturing PMISep F5353
10/02/2017 10:00ISM ManufacturingSep57.958.8
10/02/2017 10:00ISM Prices PaidSep6462
10/02/2017 10:00ISM New OrdersSep60.3
10/02/2017 10:00ISM EmploymentSep59.9
10/02/2017 10:00Construction Spending MoMAug0.40%-0.60%
10/03/2017Wards Total Vehicle SalesSep16.55m16.03m
10/03/2017Wards Domestic Vehicle SalesSep12.58m12.48m
10/04/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications29-Sep-0.50%
10/04/2017 08:15ADP Employment ChangeSep150k237k
10/04/2017 09:45Markit US Services PMISep F55.155.1
10/04/2017 09:45Markit US Composite PMISep F54.6
10/04/2017 10:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeSep55.555.3
10/05/2017 07:30Challenger Job Cuts YoYSep5.10%
10/05/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims30-Sep270k272k
10/05/2017 08:30Continuing Claims23-Sep1934k
10/05/2017 08:30Trade BalanceAug-$43.0b-$43.7b
10/05/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort1-Oct51.6
10/05/2017 10:00Factory OrdersAug0.90%-3.30%
10/05/2017 10:00Factory Orders Ex TransAug0.50%
10/05/2017 10:00Durable Goods OrdersAug F1.70%
10/05/2017 10:00Durables Ex TransportationAug F0.20%
10/05/2017 10:00Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirAug F0.90%
10/05/2017 10:00Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirAug F0.70%
10/06/2017 08:30Change in Nonfarm PayrollsSep88k156k
10/06/2017 08:30Two-Month Payroll Net RevisionSep
10/06/2017 08:30Change in Private PayrollsSep53k165k
10/06/2017 08:30Change in Manufact. PayrollsSep5k36k
10/06/2017 08:30Unemployment RateSep4.40%4.40%
10/06/2017 08:30Average Hourly Earnings MoMSep0.30%0.10%
10/06/2017 08:30Average Hourly Earnings YoYSep2.60%2.50%
10/06/2017 08:30Average Weekly Hours All EmployeesSep34.434.4
10/06/2017 08:30Labor Force Participation RateSep62.90%
10/06/2017 08:30Underemployment RateSep8.60%
10/06/2017 10:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMAug-0.10%
10/06/2017 10:00Wholesale Inventories MoMAug F1.00%1.00%
10/06/2017 15:00Consumer CreditAug$15.500b$18.499b