September 29, 2022 Headlines

Overnight inflation reports from Germany and Spain weakened US Treasuries yields as the curve resumed its inversion. German inflation accelerated in the latest report and reached double digits for the first time since the Euro was introduced 20 years ago. To smolder inflation, the European Central Bank could mirror the actions of the US Federal Reserve and raise short-term interest rates by 75 bps. In the US, initial jobless claims for the week of Sept 24th beat expectations and declined 16k to 193k. Compared to the previous decade, initial claims have averaged approximately 306k and remain at historically low levels.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/29/2022 Revisions: GDP/ National Economic Accounts
9/29/2022 GDP Annualized QoQ -0.60% -0.60% -0.60% —
9/29/2022 Personal Consumption 1.50% 2.00% 1.50% —
9/29/2022 GDP Price Index 8.90% 9.00% 8.90% —
9/29/2022 Core PCE QoQ 4.40% 4.70% 4.40% —
9/29/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 193k 213k 209k
9/29/2022 Continuing Claims 1385k 1347k 1379k 1376k
9/30/2022 Personal Income 0.30% — 0.20% —
9/30/2022 Personal Spending 0.20% — 0.10% —
9/30/2022 Real Personal Spending 0.10% — 0.20% —
9/30/2022 PCE Deflator MoM 0.10% — -0.10% —
9/30/2022 PCE Deflator YoY 6.00% — 6.30% —
9/30/2022 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.50% — 0.10% —
9/30/2022 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.70% — 4.60% —
9/30/2022 MNI Chicago PMI 51.8 — 52.2 —
9/30/2022 U. of Mich. Sentiment 59.5 — 59.5 —
9/30/2022 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 58.9 — 58.9 —
9/30/2022 U. of Mich. Expectations 59.9 — 59.9 —
9/30/2022 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.60% — 4.60% —
9/30/2022 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.80% — 2.80% —
10/3/2022 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51.8 — 51.8 —
10/3/2022 Construction Spending MoM -0.20% — -0.40% —
10/3/2022 ISM Manufacturing 52.2 — 52.8 —
10/3/2022 ISM Prices Paid 52 — 52.5 —
10/3/2022 ISM New Orders 50.5 — 51.3 —
10/3/2022 ISM Employment 53 — 54.2 —
10/3/2022 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.45m — 13.18m —
10/4/2022 Factory Orders 0.30% — -1.00% —
10/4/2022 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — -1.10% —
10/4/2022 Durable Goods Orders — — -0.20% —
10/4/2022 Durables Ex Transportation — — 0.20% —
10/4/2022 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air — — 1.30% —
10/4/2022 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.30% —
10/4/2022 JOLTS Job Openings — — 11239k —
10/5/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -3.70% —
10/5/2022 ADP Employment Change 200k — 132k —
10/5/2022 Trade Balance -$68.3b — -$70.7b —
10/5/2022 S&P Global US Services PMI — — 49.2 —
10/5/2022 S&P Global US Composite PMI — — 49.3 —
10/5/2022 ISM Services Index 56 — 56.9 —
10/6/2022 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 30.30% —
10/6/2022 Initial Jobless Claims — — 193k —
10/6/2022 Continuing Claims — — 1347k —

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