September 29, 2022 Headlines

Overnight inflation reports from Germany and Spain weakened US Treasuries yields as the curve resumed its inversion. German inflation accelerated in the latest report and reached double digits for the first time since the Euro was introduced 20 years ago. To smolder inflation, the European Central Bank could mirror the actions of the US Federal Reserve and raise short-term interest rates by 75 bps. In the US, initial jobless claims for the week of Sept 24th beat expectations and declined 16k to 193k. Compared to the previous decade, initial claims have averaged approximately 306k and remain at historically low levels.

Chris Eckhoff
Director, Investment Management Group

9/29/2022Revisions: GDP/ National Economic Accounts
9/29/2022GDP Annualized QoQ-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%
9/29/2022Personal Consumption1.50%2.00%1.50%
9/29/2022GDP Price Index8.90%9.00%8.90%
9/29/2022Core PCE QoQ4.40%4.70%4.40%
9/29/2022Initial Jobless Claims215k193k213k209k
9/29/2022Continuing Claims1385k1347k1379k1376k
9/30/2022Personal Income0.30%0.20%
9/30/2022Personal Spending0.20%0.10%
9/30/2022Real Personal Spending0.10%0.20%
9/30/2022PCE Deflator MoM0.10%-0.10%
9/30/2022PCE Deflator YoY6.00%6.30%
9/30/2022PCE Core Deflator MoM0.50%0.10%
9/30/2022PCE Core Deflator YoY4.70%4.60%
9/30/2022MNI Chicago PMI51.852.2
9/30/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment59.559.5
9/30/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions58.958.9
9/30/2022U. of Mich. Expectations59.959.9
9/30/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%4.60%
9/30/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%2.80%
10/3/2022S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI51.851.8
10/3/2022Construction Spending MoM-0.20%-0.40%
10/3/2022ISM Manufacturing52.252.8
10/3/2022ISM Prices Paid5252.5
10/3/2022ISM New Orders50.551.3
10/3/2022ISM Employment5354.2
10/3/2022Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.45m13.18m
10/4/2022Factory Orders0.30%-1.00%
10/4/2022Factory Orders Ex Trans-1.10%
10/4/2022Durable Goods Orders-0.20%
10/4/2022Durables Ex Transportation0.20%
10/4/2022Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.30%
10/4/2022Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%
10/4/2022JOLTS Job Openings11239k
10/5/2022MBA Mortgage Applications-3.70%
10/5/2022ADP Employment Change200k132k
10/5/2022Trade Balance-$68.3b-$70.7b
10/5/2022S&P Global US Services PMI49.2
10/5/2022S&P Global US Composite PMI49.3
10/5/2022ISM Services Index5656.9
10/6/2022Challenger Job Cuts YoY30.30%
10/6/2022Initial Jobless Claims193k
10/6/2022Continuing Claims1347k

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