September 29, 2023 Headlines

Both domestic and overseas economic data are contributing to a 4-6 basis point decline in Treasury yields to start the day. Both Japan and France saw improved/lower inflation readings for September, and German retail sales unexpectedly declined in August. In the U.S., core PCE rose just 0.1% in August versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, the lowest monthly gain since November 2020. On a year-over-year basis, core prices were up 3.9%, as expected and the lowest since May 2021. Later today, New York Fed President John Williams will provide remarks on current monetary policy at an event in New York.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
09/29/23	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$91.4b	-$84.3b	-$91.2b	-$90.9b
09/29/23	Wholesale Inventories MoM	-0.20%	-0.10%	-0.20%	—
09/29/23	Retail Inventories MoM	0.50%	1.10%	0.30%	0.50%
09/29/23	Personal Income	0.40%	0.40%	0.20%	—
09/29/23	Personal Spending	0.50%	0.40%	0.80%	0.90%
09/29/23	Real Personal Spending	0.00%	0.10%	0.60%	—
09/29/23	PCE Deflator MoM	0.50%	0.40%	0.20%	—
09/29/23	PCE Deflator YoY	3.50%	3.50%	3.30%	3.40%
09/29/23	PCE Core Deflator MoM	0.20%	0.10%	0.20%	—
09/29/23	PCE Core Deflator YoY	3.90%	3.90%	4.20%	4.30%
09/29/23	MNI Chicago PMI	47.6	—	48.7	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.7	—	67.7	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	69.8	—	69.8	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. Expectations	66.4	—	66.3	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	3.20%	—	3.10%	—
09/29/23	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	2.80%	—	2.70%	—
09/29/23	Kansas City Fed Services Activity	—	—	-1	—

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