September 29, 2023 Headlines

Both domestic and overseas economic data are contributing to a 4-6 basis point decline in Treasury yields to start the day. Both Japan and France saw improved/lower inflation readings for September, and German retail sales unexpectedly declined in August. In the U.S., core PCE rose just 0.1% in August versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, the lowest monthly gain since November 2020. On a year-over-year basis, core prices were up 3.9%, as expected and the lowest since May 2021. Later today, New York Fed President John Williams will provide remarks on current monetary policy at an event in New York.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

09/29/23Advance Goods Trade Balance-$91.4b-$84.3b-$91.2b-$90.9b
09/29/23Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%-0.10%-0.20%
09/29/23Retail Inventories MoM0.50%1.10%0.30%0.50%
09/29/23Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.20%
09/29/23Personal Spending0.50%0.40%0.80%0.90%
09/29/23Real Personal Spending0.00%0.10%0.60%
09/29/23PCE Deflator MoM0.50%0.40%0.20%
09/29/23PCE Deflator YoY3.50%3.50%3.30%3.40%
09/29/23PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
09/29/23PCE Core Deflator YoY3.90%3.90%4.20%4.30%
09/29/23MNI Chicago PMI47.648.7
09/29/23U. of Mich. Sentiment67.767.7
09/29/23U. of Mich. Current Conditions69.869.8
09/29/23U. of Mich. Expectations66.466.3
09/29/23U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%3.10%
09/29/23U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%2.70%
09/29/23Kansas City Fed Services Activity-1


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