September 3, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper following a big miss in the August payrolls report, but markets are expected to be less liquid today ahead of the long holiday weekend. Nonfarm payrolls added 235,000 jobs in August, well below the 733,000 expected job gains and the smallest monthly increase in payrolls in seven months. On the positive side, the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 134,000 jobs, and after the revisions, job growth averaged just over 1 million per month in June and July. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6% in August, double the expected growth rate, and the average work week held steady at 34.7 hours (34.8 expected). In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate fell another 20 bps to 5.2%, as expected and helped by a 509,000 increase in household employment.

There doesn’t seem to be a good answer for today’s miss in the early market reaction (i.e., a head scratcher), but regardless of the driver of the August weakness, it probably does provide some ammo for the doves of the FOMC that are in no rush to announce tapering. As such, the post-jobs sell-off in Treasuries is related to “lower for longer” speculation as it relates to Fed policy (and inflation).  As always, one report is not a trend, and we wouldn’t read too much into the market reaction on a day like this (Friday before Labor Day).  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
08/30/21 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.30% -1.80% -1.90% -2.00%
8/30/2021 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -8.80% -9.50% -3.30% -3.50%
08/30/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 23 9 27.3 —
08/31/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.90% 1.60% 1.70% 1.80%
08/31/21 House Price Purchase Index QoQ — 4.90% 3.50% 3.90%
08/31/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.80% 1.77% 1.81% —
08/31/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 18.60% 19.08% 16.99% 17.14%
08/31/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 18.61% 16.61% 16.78%
08/31/21 MNI Chicago PMI 68 66.8 73.4 —
08/31/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 123 113.8 129.1 125.1
08/31/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 147.3 160.3 157.2
08/31/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 91.4 108.4 103.8
09/01/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -2.40% 1.60% —
09/01/21 ADP Employment Change 625k 374k 330k 326k
09/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 61.2 61.1 61.2 —
09/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.20% 0.30% 0.10% 0.00%
09/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 58.5 59.9 59.5 —
09/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 84 79.4 85.7 —
09/01/21 ISM New Orders 61 66.7 64.9 —
09/01/21 ISM Employment — 49 52.9 —
09/01/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 14.45m 13.06m 14.75m —
09/02/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — -86.40% -92.80% —
09/02/21 Initial Jobless Claims 345k 340k 353k 354k
09/02/21 Continuing Claims 2808k 2748k 2862k 2908k
09/02/21 Nonfarm Productivity 2.50% 2.10% 2.30% —
09/02/21 Unit Labor Costs 0.90% 1.30% 1.00% —
09/02/21 Trade Balance -$70.9b -$70.1b -$75.7b -$73.2b
09/02/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — 58.2 57.2 —
09/02/21 Factory Orders 0.30% 0.40% 1.50% —
09/02/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.50% 0.80% 1.40% 1.50%
09/02/21 Durable Goods Orders -0.10% -0.10% -0.10% —
09/02/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.70% 0.80% 0.70% —
09/02/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.00% 0.10% 0.00% —
09/02/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — 0.90% 1.00% —
09/03/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 733k 235k 943k 1053k
09/03/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — 134k — —
09/03/21 Change in Private Payrolls 610k 243k 703k 798k
09/03/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 25k 37k 27k 52k
09/03/21 Unemployment Rate 5.20% 5.20% 5.40% —
09/03/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.60% 0.40% —
09/03/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.90% 4.30% 4.00% 4.10%
09/03/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.8 34.7 34.8 34.7
09/03/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.80% 61.70% 61.70% —
09/03/21 Underemployment Rate — 8.80% 9.20% —
09/03/21 Markit US Services PMI 55.2 — 55.2 —
09/03/21 Markit US Composite PMI — — 55.4 —
09/03/21 ISM Services Index 61.6 — 64.1 —

 

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