September 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to begin the last trading day of the third quarter. In unfortunate but not surprising news, retail store bankruptcies set a record in the first half of 2020, according to a report by BDO. On the global monetary policy front, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at major tweaks to the central bank’s policy framework, including a potential shift to core inflation targeting (i.e., “makeup” strategy similar to the Fed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/28/20 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 9.5 13.6 8
9/29/20 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$81.8b -$82.9b -$79.3b -$80.1b
9/29/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% 0.50% -0.30% -0.10%
9/29/20 Retail Inventories MoM 1.10% 0.80% 1.20%
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.10% 0.55% 0.00%
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.60% 3.95% 3.46%
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 226.55 225.13 225.14
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.78% 4.29% 4.35%
9/29/20 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 221.64 219.82 219.92
9/29/20 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 90 101.8 84.8 86.3
9/29/20 Conf. Board Present Situation 98.5 84.2 85.8
9/29/20 Conf. Board Expectations 104 85.2 86.6
9/30/20 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.80% 6.80%
9/30/20 ADP Employment Change 649k 749k 428k 481k
9/30/20 MNI Chicago PMI 52 62.4 51.2
9/30/20 GDP Annualized QoQ -31.70% -31.40% -31.70%
9/30/20 Personal Consumption -34.10% -33.20% -34.10%
9/30/20 GDP Price Index -2.00% -1.80% -2.00%
9/30/20 Core PCE QoQ -1.00% -0.80% -1.00%
9/30/20 Pending Home Sales MoM 3.10% 5.90%
9/30/20 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 17.60% 15.40%
10/1/20 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 116.50%
10/1/20 Initial Jobless Claims 850k 870k
10/1/20 Continuing Claims 12200k 12580k
10/1/20 Personal Income -2.50% 0.40%
10/1/20 Personal Spending 0.80% 1.90%
10/1/20 Real Personal Spending 0.50% 1.60%
10/1/20 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30%
10/1/20 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% 1.00%
10/1/20 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30%
10/1/20 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.40% 1.30%
10/1/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.8
10/1/20 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.5
10/1/20 Construction Spending MoM 0.70% 0.10%
10/1/20 ISM Manufacturing 56.4 56
10/1/20 ISM New Orders 65.2 67.6
10/1/20 ISM Prices Paid 58.8 59.5
10/1/20 ISM Employment 46.4
10/1/20 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.70m 15.19m
10/2/20 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 850k 1371k
10/2/20 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -39k
10/2/20 Change in Private Payrolls 875k 1027k
10/2/20 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 36k 29k
10/2/20 Unemployment Rate 8.20% 8.40%
10/2/20 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.40%
10/2/20 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.80% 4.70%
10/2/20 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.6 34.6
10/2/20 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.00% 61.70%
10/2/20 Underemployment Rate 14.20%
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79 78.9
10/2/20 Factory Orders 0.90% 6.40%
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 87.5
10/2/20 Factory Orders Ex Trans 1.10% 2.10%
10/2/20 U. of Mich. Expectations 73.3
10/2/20 Durable Goods Orders 0.40% 0.40%
10/2/20 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
10/2/20 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% 0.40%
10/2/20 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.60%
10/2/20 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 1.70% 1.80%
10/2/20 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 1.50%

 

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