September 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to begin the last trading day of the third quarter. In unfortunate but not surprising news, retail store bankruptcies set a record in the first half of 2020, according to a report by BDO. On the global monetary policy front, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at major tweaks to the central bank’s policy framework, including a potential shift to core inflation targeting (i.e., “makeup” strategy similar to the Fed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/28/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity9.513.68—
9/29/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$81.8b-$82.9b-$79.3b-$80.1b
9/29/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%0.50%-0.30%-0.10%
9/29/20Retail Inventories MoM1.10%0.80%1.20%—
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.55%0.00%—
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.60%3.95%3.46%—
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index—226.55225.13225.14
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA—4.78%4.29%4.35%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—221.64219.82219.92
9/29/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90101.884.886.3
9/29/20Conf. Board Present Situation—98.584.285.8
9/29/20Conf. Board Expectations—10485.286.6
9/30/20MBA Mortgage Applications—-4.80%6.80%—
9/30/20ADP Employment Change649k749k428k481k
9/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5262.451.2—
9/30/20GDP Annualized QoQ-31.70%-31.40%-31.70%—
9/30/20Personal Consumption-34.10%-33.20%-34.10%—
9/30/20GDP Price Index-2.00%-1.80%-2.00%—
9/30/20Core PCE QoQ-1.00%-0.80%-1.00%—
9/30/20Pending Home Sales MoM3.10%—5.90%—
9/30/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY17.60%—15.40%—
10/1/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY——116.50%—
10/1/20Initial Jobless Claims850k—870k—
10/1/20Continuing Claims12200k—12580k—
10/1/20Personal Income-2.50%—0.40%—
10/1/20Personal Spending0.80%—1.90%—
10/1/20Real Personal Spending0.50%—1.60%—
10/1/20PCE Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
10/1/20PCE Deflator YoY1.20%—1.00%—
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%—1.30%—
10/1/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——49.8—
10/1/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.5—53.5—
10/1/20Construction Spending MoM0.70%—0.10%—
10/1/20ISM Manufacturing56.4—56—
10/1/20ISM New Orders65.2—67.6—
10/1/20ISM Prices Paid58.8—59.5—
10/1/20ISM Employment——46.4—
10/1/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.70m—15.19m—
10/2/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls850k—1371k—
10/2/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-39k—
10/2/20Change in Private Payrolls875k—1027k—
10/2/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls36k—29k—
10/2/20Unemployment Rate8.20%—8.40%—
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%—0.40%—
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.80%—4.70%—
10/2/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.6—34.6—
10/2/20Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%—61.70%—
10/2/20Underemployment Rate——14.20%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. Sentiment79—78.9—
10/2/20Factory Orders0.90%—6.40%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions——87.5—
10/2/20Factory Orders Ex Trans1.10%—2.10%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. Expectations——73.3—
10/2/20Durable Goods Orders0.40%—0.40%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.70%—
10/2/20Durables Ex Transportation0.40%—0.40%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.60%—
10/2/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%—1.80%—
10/2/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——1.50%—

 

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