September 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to begin the last trading day of the third quarter. In unfortunate but not surprising news, retail store bankruptcies set a record in the first half of 2020, according to a report by BDO. On the global monetary policy front, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at major tweaks to the central bank’s policy framework, including a potential shift to core inflation targeting (i.e., “makeup” strategy similar to the Fed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/28/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity9.513.68—
9/29/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$81.8b-$82.9b-$79.3b-$80.1b
9/29/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%0.50%-0.30%-0.10%
9/29/20Retail Inventories MoM1.10%0.80%1.20%—
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.55%0.00%—
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.60%3.95%3.46%—
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index—226.55225.13225.14
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA—4.78%4.29%4.35%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—221.64219.82219.92
9/29/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90101.884.886.3
9/29/20Conf. Board Present Situation—98.584.285.8
9/29/20Conf. Board Expectations—10485.286.6
9/30/20MBA Mortgage Applications—-4.80%6.80%—
9/30/20ADP Employment Change649k749k428k481k
9/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5262.451.2—
9/30/20GDP Annualized QoQ-31.70%-31.40%-31.70%—
9/30/20Personal Consumption-34.10%-33.20%-34.10%—
9/30/20GDP Price Index-2.00%-1.80%-2.00%—
9/30/20Core PCE QoQ-1.00%-0.80%-1.00%—
9/30/20Pending Home Sales MoM3.10%—5.90%—
9/30/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY17.60%—15.40%—
10/1/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY——116.50%—
10/1/20Initial Jobless Claims850k—870k—
10/1/20Continuing Claims12200k—12580k—
10/1/20Personal Income-2.50%—0.40%—
10/1/20Personal Spending0.80%—1.90%—
10/1/20Real Personal Spending0.50%—1.60%—
10/1/20PCE Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
10/1/20PCE Deflator YoY1.20%—1.00%—
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%—1.30%—
10/1/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——49.8—
10/1/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.5—53.5—
10/1/20Construction Spending MoM0.70%—0.10%—
10/1/20ISM Manufacturing56.4—56—
10/1/20ISM New Orders65.2—67.6—
10/1/20ISM Prices Paid58.8—59.5—
10/1/20ISM Employment——46.4—
10/1/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.70m—15.19m—
10/2/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls850k—1371k—
10/2/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-39k—
10/2/20Change in Private Payrolls875k—1027k—
10/2/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls36k—29k—
10/2/20Unemployment Rate8.20%—8.40%—
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%—0.40%—
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.80%—4.70%—
10/2/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.6—34.6—
10/2/20Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%—61.70%—
10/2/20Underemployment Rate——14.20%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. Sentiment79—78.9—
10/2/20Factory Orders0.90%—6.40%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions——87.5—
10/2/20Factory Orders Ex Trans1.10%—2.10%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. Expectations——73.3—
10/2/20Durable Goods Orders0.40%—0.40%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.70%—
10/2/20Durables Ex Transportation0.40%—0.40%—
10/2/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.60%—
10/2/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%—1.80%—
10/2/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——1.50%—

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.