September 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to begin the last trading day of the third quarter. In unfortunate but not surprising news, retail store bankruptcies set a record in the first half of 2020, according to a report by BDO. On the global monetary policy front, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at major tweaks to the central bank’s policy framework, including a potential shift to core inflation targeting (i.e., “makeup” strategy similar to the Fed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

9/28/20Dallas Fed Manf. Activity9.513.68
9/29/20Advance Goods Trade Balance-$81.8b-$82.9b-$79.3b-$80.1b
9/29/20Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%0.50%-0.30%-0.10%
9/29/20Retail Inventories MoM1.10%0.80%1.20%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.55%0.00%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.60%3.95%3.46%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index226.55225.13225.14
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.78%4.29%4.35%
9/29/20S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index221.64219.82219.92
9/29/20Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90101.884.886.3
9/29/20Conf. Board Present Situation98.584.285.8
9/29/20Conf. Board Expectations10485.286.6
9/30/20MBA Mortgage Applications-4.80%6.80%
9/30/20ADP Employment Change649k749k428k481k
9/30/20MNI Chicago PMI5262.451.2
9/30/20GDP Annualized QoQ-31.70%-31.40%-31.70%
9/30/20Personal Consumption-34.10%-33.20%-34.10%
9/30/20GDP Price Index-2.00%-1.80%-2.00%
9/30/20Core PCE QoQ-1.00%-0.80%-1.00%
9/30/20Pending Home Sales MoM3.10%5.90%
9/30/20Pending Home Sales NSA YoY17.60%15.40%
10/1/20Challenger Job Cuts YoY116.50%
10/1/20Initial Jobless Claims850k870k
10/1/20Continuing Claims12200k12580k
10/1/20Personal Income-2.50%0.40%
10/1/20Personal Spending0.80%1.90%
10/1/20Real Personal Spending0.50%1.60%
10/1/20PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
10/1/20PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.00%
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%0.30%
10/1/20PCE Core Deflator YoY1.40%1.30%
10/1/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.8
10/1/20Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.553.5
10/1/20Construction Spending MoM0.70%0.10%
10/1/20ISM Manufacturing56.456
10/1/20ISM New Orders65.267.6
10/1/20ISM Prices Paid58.859.5
10/1/20ISM Employment46.4
10/1/20Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.70m15.19m
10/2/20Change in Nonfarm Payrolls850k1371k
10/2/20Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-39k
10/2/20Change in Private Payrolls875k1027k
10/2/20Change in Manufact. Payrolls36k29k
10/2/20Unemployment Rate8.20%8.40%
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.40%
10/2/20Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.80%4.70%
10/2/20Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.634.6
10/2/20Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%61.70%
10/2/20Underemployment Rate14.20%
10/2/20U. of Mich. Sentiment7978.9
10/2/20Factory Orders0.90%6.40%
10/2/20U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.5
10/2/20Factory Orders Ex Trans1.10%2.10%
10/2/20U. of Mich. Expectations73.3
10/2/20Durable Goods Orders0.40%0.40%
10/2/20U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
10/2/20Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%
10/2/20U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
10/2/20Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.70%1.80%
10/2/20Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.50%


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