September 30, 2020 Headlines
Treasuries are little changed to begin the last trading day of the third quarter. In unfortunate but not surprising news, retail store bankruptcies set a record in the first half of 2020, according to a report by BDO. On the global monetary policy front, ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at major tweaks to the central bank’s policy framework, including a potential shift to core inflation targeting (i.e., “makeup” strategy similar to the Fed).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
9/28/20 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 9.5 | 13.6 | 8 | — |
9/29/20 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$81.8b | -$82.9b | -$79.3b | -$80.1b |
9/29/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | 0.50% | -0.30% | -0.10% |
9/29/20 | Retail Inventories MoM | 1.10% | 0.80% | 1.20% | — |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.55% | 0.00% | — |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 3.60% | 3.95% | 3.46% | — |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 226.55 | 225.13 | 225.14 |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 4.78% | 4.29% | 4.35% |
9/29/20 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 221.64 | 219.82 | 219.92 |
9/29/20 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 90 | 101.8 | 84.8 | 86.3 |
9/29/20 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 98.5 | 84.2 | 85.8 |
9/29/20 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 104 | 85.2 | 86.6 |
9/30/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.80% | 6.80% | — |
9/30/20 | ADP Employment Change | 649k | 749k | 428k | 481k |
9/30/20 | MNI Chicago PMI | 52 | 62.4 | 51.2 | — |
9/30/20 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -31.70% | -31.40% | -31.70% | — |
9/30/20 | Personal Consumption | -34.10% | -33.20% | -34.10% | — |
9/30/20 | GDP Price Index | -2.00% | -1.80% | -2.00% | — |
9/30/20 | Core PCE QoQ | -1.00% | -0.80% | -1.00% | — |
9/30/20 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 3.10% | — | 5.90% | — |
9/30/20 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 17.60% | — | 15.40% | — |
10/1/20 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 116.50% | — |
10/1/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 850k | — | 870k | — |
10/1/20 | Continuing Claims | 12200k | — | 12580k | — |
10/1/20 | Personal Income | -2.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/1/20 | Personal Spending | 0.80% | — | 1.90% | — |
10/1/20 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 1.60% | — |
10/1/20 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
10/1/20 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | — | 1.00% | — |
10/1/20 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
10/1/20 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.40% | — | 1.30% | — |
10/1/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 49.8 | — |
10/1/20 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | — | 53.5 | — |
10/1/20 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.10% | — |
10/1/20 | ISM Manufacturing | 56.4 | — | 56 | — |
10/1/20 | ISM New Orders | 65.2 | — | 67.6 | — |
10/1/20 | ISM Prices Paid | 58.8 | — | 59.5 | — |
10/1/20 | ISM Employment | — | — | 46.4 | — |
10/1/20 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | — | 15.19m | — |
10/2/20 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 850k | — | 1371k | — |
10/2/20 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -39k | — |
10/2/20 | Change in Private Payrolls | 875k | — | 1027k | — |
10/2/20 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 36k | — | 29k | — |
10/2/20 | Unemployment Rate | 8.20% | — | 8.40% | — |
10/2/20 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/2/20 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.80% | — | 4.70% | — |
10/2/20 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.6 | — | 34.6 | — |
10/2/20 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.00% | — | 61.70% | — |
10/2/20 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 14.20% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79 | — | 78.9 | — |
10/2/20 | Factory Orders | 0.90% | — | 6.40% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 87.5 | — |
10/2/20 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 1.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 73.3 | — |
10/2/20 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
10/2/20 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
10/2/20 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
10/2/20 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.70% | — | 1.80% | — |
10/2/20 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.50% | — |
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