September 30, 2021 Headlines

The Senate is poised to pass a continuing resolution this morning that would avoid a government shutdown before tonight’s deadline. S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% (8:25am ET) and Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points higher across the curve. The debt ceiling remains an outstanding issue that still must be resolved before the Treasury Department runs out of cash in the next few weeks, and Republicans are looking for Democrats to attach it to $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation plan. On that note, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) issued fresh criticisms against the size of the White House’s proposed plan, saying “I can’t support $3.5 trillion more in spending when we have already spent $5.4 trillion since last March.”  In a story that must be causing heartburn for Fed officials, a Bloomberg article this morning highlights a 11.5% year-over-year increase in rent prices in August according to a Zillow index, with some cities in Florida, Georgia, and Washington state seeing increases of more than 25%.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/30/2021Initial Jobless Claims330k362k351k
9/30/2021Continuing Claims2790k2802k2845k2820k
9/30/2021GDP Annualized QoQ6.60%6.70%6.60%
9/30/2021Personal Consumption11.90%12.00%11.90%
9/30/2021GDP Price Index6.10%6.10%6.10%
9/30/2021Core PCE QoQ6.10%6.10%6.10%
9/30/2021Langer Consumer Comfort56.3
9/30/2021MNI Chicago PMI6566.8
10/1/2021Personal Income0.20%1.10%
10/1/2021Personal Spending0.60%0.30%
10/1/2021Real Personal Spending0.40%-0.10%
10/1/2021PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%
10/1/2021PCE Deflator YoY4.20%4.20%
10/1/2021PCE Core Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%
10/1/2021PCE Core Deflator YoY3.50%3.60%
10/1/2021Markit US Manufacturing PMI60.560.5
10/1/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment7171
10/1/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions77.177.1
10/1/2021U. of Mich. Expectations67.167.1
10/1/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%4.70%
10/1/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%
10/1/2021Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.30%
10/1/2021ISM Manufacturing59.559.9
10/1/2021ISM Prices Paid78.579.4
10/1/2021ISM New Orders63.666.7
10/1/2021ISM Employment50.249
10/1/2021Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.00m13.06m

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