UK Prime Minister Liz Truss reaffirmed the proposed tax cut package that spooked markets earlier in the week as the pound sharply declined 5% to an all-time low of $1.035 versus the US dollar in the aftermath. Ahead of the open, S&P500 futures are essentially unchanged and the US Treasury curve bull flattened with 10-year yields down 7.5 bps. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), known as the Federal Reserves preferred gauge for inflation, rose 0.3% compared to the prior month. On a year over year basis, the index increased 6.2% which is well above the central bank’s 2% goal. While recent policy actions will take time to show effect, Lael Brainard echoed similar rhetoric to other Federal Reserve members that additional tightening in monetary policy is needed to bring down inflation. Currently, Fed Fund Futures imply a 4.2% rate by the end of the year.
Director, Investment Management Group
|9/30/2022||Real Personal Spending||0.10%||0.10%||0.20%||-0.10%|
|9/30/2022||PCE Deflator MoM||0.10%||0.30%||-0.10%||—|
|9/30/2022||PCE Deflator YoY||6.00%||6.20%||6.30%||6.40%|
|9/30/2022||PCE Core Deflator MoM||0.50%||0.60%||0.10%||0.00%|
|9/30/2022||PCE Core Deflator YoY||4.70%||4.90%||4.60%||4.70%|
|9/30/2022||MNI Chicago PMI||51.8||—||52.2||—|
|9/30/2022||U. of Mich. Sentiment||59.5||—||59.5||—|
|9/30/2022||U. of Mich. Current Conditions||58.9||—||58.9||—|
|9/30/2022||U. of Mich. Expectations||59.9||—||59.9||—|
|9/30/2022||U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation||4.60%||—||4.60%||—|
|9/30/2022||U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation||2.80%||—||2.80%||—|
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.