September 30, 2022 Headlines

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss reaffirmed the proposed tax cut package that spooked markets earlier in the week as the pound sharply declined 5% to an all-time low of $1.035 versus the US dollar in the aftermath. Ahead of the open, S&P500 futures are essentially unchanged and the US Treasury curve bull flattened with 10-year yields down 7.5 bps. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), known as the Federal Reserves preferred gauge for inflation, rose 0.3% compared to the prior month. On a year over year basis, the index increased 6.2% which is well above the central bank’s 2% goal. While recent policy actions will take time to show effect, Lael Brainard echoed similar rhetoric to other Federal Reserve members that additional tightening in monetary policy is needed to bring down inflation. Currently, Fed Fund Futures imply a 4.2% rate by the end of the year. 

Chris Eckhoff

Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/30/2022Personal Income0.30%0.30%0.20%0.30%
9/30/2022Personal Spending0.20%0.40%0.10%-0.20%
9/30/2022Real Personal Spending0.10%0.10%0.20%-0.10%
9/30/2022PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%-0.10%—
9/30/2022PCE Deflator YoY6.00%6.20%6.30%6.40%
9/30/2022PCE Core Deflator MoM0.50%0.60%0.10%0.00%
9/30/2022PCE Core Deflator YoY4.70%4.90%4.60%4.70%
9/30/2022MNI Chicago PMI51.8—52.2—
9/30/2022U. of Mich. Sentiment59.5—59.5—
9/30/2022U. of Mich. Current Conditions58.9—58.9—
9/30/2022U. of Mich. Expectations59.9—59.9—
9/30/2022U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.60%—4.60%—
9/30/2022U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%—2.80%—

 

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