September 4, 2019 Headlines

Risk assets are rebounding today on Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam’s decision to withdraw the extradition bill that ignited the protests. The Hang Seng Index closed up 3.9%, and European equities and S&P 500 futures are up 1%. Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points higher, with the yield curve modestly steeper. Based on yesterday’s parliamentary moves, it now appears more likely that the October 31 Brexit deadline will be extended again, which is also contributing to today’s risk-on sentiment.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.1% for the weekend ended August 30, the third consecutive decline. The decline in applications was entirely attributable to a 7% reduction in refi activity, which followed a 7.6% the prior week. The refi applications index has now fallen 14% since reaching a 3-year high in early August, and this week’s decline comes despite a 7 bps decline in the MBA’s 30-year mortgage survey rate to 3.87%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

9/3/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI5050.349.9
9/3/2019ISM Manufacturing51.349.151.2
9/3/2019ISM Employment47.451.7
9/3/2019ISM Prices Paid46.84645.1
9/3/2019ISM New Orders50.547.250.8
9/3/2019Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.10%-1.30%-0.70%
9/3/2019Revisions: Construction Spending
9/4/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%-6.20%
9/4/2019Trade Balance-$53.4b-$54.0b-$55.2b-$55.5b
9/4/2019U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/4/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.82m
9/5/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY43.20%
9/5/2019ADP Employment Change148k156k
9/5/2019Nonfarm Productivity2.20%2.30%
9/5/2019Unit Labor Costs2.40%2.40%
9/5/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k215k
9/5/2019Continuing Claims1688k1698k
9/5/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.5
9/5/2019Markit US Services PMI50.950.9
9/5/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.9
9/5/2019Factory Orders1.00%0.60%
9/5/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
9/5/2019Durable Goods Orders2.10%2.10%
9/5/2019Durables Ex Transportation-0.40%-0.40%
9/5/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%
9/5/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.70%
9/5/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5453.7
9/6/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls160k164k
9/6/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-41k
9/6/2019Change in Private Payrolls150k148k
9/6/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k16k
9/6/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
9/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
9/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.20%
9/6/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.3
9/6/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%
9/6/2019Underemployment Rate7.00%















Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.