September 4, 2019 Headlines

Risk assets are rebounding today on Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam’s decision to withdraw the extradition bill that ignited the protests. The Hang Seng Index closed up 3.9%, and European equities and S&P 500 futures are up 1%. Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points higher, with the yield curve modestly steeper. Based on yesterday’s parliamentary moves, it now appears more likely that the October 31 Brexit deadline will be extended again, which is also contributing to today’s risk-on sentiment.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.1% for the weekend ended August 30, the third consecutive decline. The decline in applications was entirely attributable to a 7% reduction in refi activity, which followed a 7.6% the prior week. The refi applications index has now fallen 14% since reaching a 3-year high in early August, and this week’s decline comes despite a 7 bps decline in the MBA’s 30-year mortgage survey rate to 3.87%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
9/3/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI5050.349.9
9/3/2019ISM Manufacturing51.349.151.2
9/3/2019ISM Employment47.451.7
9/3/2019ISM Prices Paid46.84645.1
9/3/2019ISM New Orders50.547.250.8
9/3/2019Construction Spending MoM0.30%0.10%-1.30%-0.70%
9/3/2019Revisions: Construction Spending
9/4/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-3.10%-6.20%
9/4/2019Trade Balance-$53.4b-$54.0b-$55.2b-$55.5b
9/4/2019U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/4/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m16.82m
9/5/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY43.20%
9/5/2019ADP Employment Change148k156k
9/5/2019Nonfarm Productivity2.20%2.30%
9/5/2019Unit Labor Costs2.40%2.40%
9/5/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k215k
9/5/2019Continuing Claims1688k1698k
9/5/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.5
9/5/2019Markit US Services PMI50.950.9
9/5/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.9
9/5/2019Factory Orders1.00%0.60%
9/5/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
9/5/2019Durable Goods Orders2.10%2.10%
9/5/2019Durables Ex Transportation-0.40%-0.40%
9/5/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%
9/5/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.70%
9/5/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5453.7
9/6/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls160k164k
9/6/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-41k
9/6/2019Change in Private Payrolls150k148k
9/6/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k16k
9/6/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
9/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%
9/6/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.20%
9/6/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.3
9/6/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.00%
9/6/2019Underemployment Rate7.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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