September 4, 2019 Headlines

Risk assets are rebounding today on Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam’s decision to withdraw the extradition bill that ignited the protests. The Hang Seng Index closed up 3.9%, and European equities and S&P 500 futures are up 1%. Treasury yields are 1-3 basis points higher, with the yield curve modestly steeper. Based on yesterday’s parliamentary moves, it now appears more likely that the October 31 Brexit deadline will be extended again, which is also contributing to today’s risk-on sentiment.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 3.1% for the weekend ended August 30, the third consecutive decline. The decline in applications was entirely attributable to a 7% reduction in refi activity, which followed a 7.6% the prior week. The refi applications index has now fallen 14% since reaching a 3-year high in early August, and this week’s decline comes despite a 7 bps decline in the MBA’s 30-year mortgage survey rate to 3.87%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/3/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 50 50.3 49.9
9/3/2019 ISM Manufacturing 51.3 49.1 51.2
9/3/2019 ISM Employment 47.4 51.7
9/3/2019 ISM Prices Paid 46.8 46 45.1
9/3/2019 ISM New Orders 50.5 47.2 50.8
9/3/2019 Construction Spending MoM 0.30% 0.10% -1.30% -0.70%
9/3/2019 Revisions: Construction Spending
9/4/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -3.10% -6.20%
9/4/2019 Trade Balance -$53.4b -$54.0b -$55.2b -$55.5b
9/4/2019 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
9/4/2019 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.80m 16.82m
9/5/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 43.20%
9/5/2019 ADP Employment Change 148k 156k
9/5/2019 Nonfarm Productivity 2.20% 2.30%
9/5/2019 Unit Labor Costs 2.40% 2.40%
9/5/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 215k
9/5/2019 Continuing Claims 1688k 1698k
9/5/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.5
9/5/2019 Markit US Services PMI 50.9 50.9
9/5/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 50.9
9/5/2019 Factory Orders 1.00% 0.60%
9/5/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.10%
9/5/2019 Durable Goods Orders 2.10% 2.10%
9/5/2019 Durables Ex Transportation -0.40% -0.40%
9/5/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.40%
9/5/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.70%
9/5/2019 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54 53.7
9/6/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 160k 164k
9/6/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -41k
9/6/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 150k 148k
9/6/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k 16k
9/6/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.70% 3.70%
9/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
9/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.00% 3.20%
9/6/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.3
9/6/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.00%
9/6/2019 Underemployment Rate 7.00%















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