The negative headlines related to North Korea’s hydrogen bomb tests have sparked another risk-off trade in the markets today, driving Treasury yields 3-5 basis points lower across the curve. Overseas equity markets were mixed overnight, and S&P 500 futures are currently down 6 points. Outside of geopolitical concerns, focus will also shift to the budget/debt ceiling debate now that Congress has returned from its August recess. Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan are working for a “clean” debt ceiling increase (no stipulations attached) and a 3-month continuing resolution (CR) that would avoid a government shutdown at the end of the month, and according to a Politico article, both are hoping that President Trump will publicly and enthusiastically support their plan.
The economic data calendar is relatively light this week, and the ECB’s September decision will be released Thursday morning. Several Fed leaders will be speaking this week, starting with Lael Brainard (Fed governor) and Neel Kaskkari (Minneapolis Fed) this morning. Bill Dudley (NY Fed and Vice Chair) will be speaking on the economic outlook and monetary policy on Thursday.


Date TimeEvent SurveyActualPriorRevised
09/05/2017 10:00Factory OrdersJul-3.30%-3.30%3.00%3.20%
09/05/2017 10:00Factory Orders Ex TransJul0.50%-0.20%0.10%
09/05/2017 10:00Durable Goods OrdersJul F-2.90%-6.80%-6.80%
09/05/2017 10:00Durables Ex TransportationJul F0.60%0.50%
09/05/2017 10:00Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex AirJul F1.00%0.40%
09/05/2017 10:00Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex AirJul F1.20%1.00%
09/06/2017 07:00MBA Mortgage Applications1-Sep-2.30%
09/06/2017 08:30Trade BalanceJul-$44.7b-$43.6b
09/06/2017 09:45Markit US Services PMIAug F56.956.9
09/06/2017 09:45Markit US Composite PMIAug F56
09/06/2017 10:00ISM Non-Manf. CompositeAug55.553.9
09/06/2017 14:00U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
09/07/2017 08:30Initial Jobless Claims2-Sep244k236k
09/07/2017 08:30Nonfarm Productivity2Q F1.30%0.90%
09/07/2017 08:30Continuing Claims26-Aug1945k1942k
09/07/2017 08:30Unit Labor Costs2Q F0.30%0.60%
09/07/2017 09:45Bloomberg Consumer Comfort3-Sep53.3
09/08/2017 10:00Wholesale Inventories MoMJul F0.40%0.40%
09/08/2017 10:00Wholesale Trade Sales MoMJul0.50%0.70%
09/08/2017 15:00Consumer CreditJul$15.000b$12.397b