September 5, 2019 Headlines

Reports that Chinese officials will travel to Washington in early October for trade talks has boosted risk assets overnight. S&P 500 futures are up nearly 1%, and Treasury yields are 5-6 bps higher. Germany reported another round of weak economic data (factory orders and construction data), which is reinforcing market expectations of the ECB announcing a new asset purchase program at the September 12 meeting. In the U.K., it now appears more likely that the 10/31 Brexit deadline will be extended by three months. Prime Minister Johnson will still try to push for new elections (likely mid-November at the earliest), but the probability of a “No Deal” Brexit in the near term is much lower.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/5/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — 39.00% 43.20% —
9/5/2019 ADP Employment Change 148k 195k 156k 142k
9/5/2019 Nonfarm Productivity 2.20% 2.30% 2.30% —
9/5/2019 Unit Labor Costs 2.40% 2.60% 2.40% —
9/5/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 217k 215k 216k
9/5/2019 Continuing Claims 1688k 1662k 1698k 1701k
9/5/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 62.5 —
9/5/2019 Markit US Services PMI 50.9 — 50.9 —
9/5/2019 Markit US Composite PMI — — 50.9 —
9/5/2019 Factory Orders 1.00% — 0.60% —
9/5/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 0.10% —
9/5/2019 Durable Goods Orders 2.10% — 2.10% —
9/5/2019 Durables Ex Transportation -0.40% — -0.40% —
9/5/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air — — 0.40% —
9/5/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — -0.70% —
9/5/2019 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54 — 53.7 —
9/6/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — — —
9/6/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 160k — 164k —
9/6/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 150k — 148k —
9/6/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k — 16k —
9/6/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.70% — 3.70% —
9/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
9/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.00% — 3.20% —
9/6/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 — 34.3 —
9/6/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate — — 63.00% —
9/6/2019 Underemployment Rate — — 7.00% —

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Subscribe
ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.