September 5, 2019 Headlines

Reports that Chinese officials will travel to Washington in early October for trade talks has boosted risk assets overnight. S&P 500 futures are up nearly 1%, and Treasury yields are 5-6 bps higher. Germany reported another round of weak economic data (factory orders and construction data), which is reinforcing market expectations of the ECB announcing a new asset purchase program at the September 12 meeting. In the U.K., it now appears more likely that the 10/31 Brexit deadline will be extended by three months. Prime Minister Johnson will still try to push for new elections (likely mid-November at the earliest), but the probability of a “No Deal” Brexit in the near term is much lower.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/5/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 39.00% 43.20%
9/5/2019 ADP Employment Change 148k 195k 156k 142k
9/5/2019 Nonfarm Productivity 2.20% 2.30% 2.30%
9/5/2019 Unit Labor Costs 2.40% 2.60% 2.40%
9/5/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 217k 215k 216k
9/5/2019 Continuing Claims 1688k 1662k 1698k 1701k
9/5/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62.5
9/5/2019 Markit US Services PMI 50.9 50.9
9/5/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 50.9
9/5/2019 Factory Orders 1.00% 0.60%
9/5/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.10%
9/5/2019 Durable Goods Orders 2.10% 2.10%
9/5/2019 Durables Ex Transportation -0.40% -0.40%
9/5/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.40%
9/5/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.70%
9/5/2019 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54 53.7
9/6/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
9/6/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 160k 164k
9/6/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 150k 148k
9/6/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 5k 16k
9/6/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.70% 3.70%
9/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30%
9/6/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.00% 3.20%
9/6/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.3
9/6/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.00%
9/6/2019 Underemployment Rate 7.00%
















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