September 5, 2019 Headlines

Reports that Chinese officials will travel to Washington in early October for trade talks has boosted risk assets overnight. S&P 500 futures are up nearly 1%, and Treasury yields are 5-6 bps higher. Germany reported another round of weak economic data (factory orders and construction data), which is reinforcing market expectations of the ECB announcing a new asset purchase program at the September 12 meeting. In the U.K., it now appears more likely that the 10/31 Brexit deadline will be extended by three months. Prime Minister Johnson will still try to push for new elections (likely mid-November at the earliest), but the probability of a “No Deal” Brexit in the near term is much lower.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
9/5/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	39.00%	43.20%	—
9/5/2019	ADP Employment Change	148k	195k	156k	142k
9/5/2019	Nonfarm Productivity	2.20%	2.30%	2.30%	—
9/5/2019	Unit Labor Costs	2.40%	2.60%	2.40%	—
9/5/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	217k	215k	216k
9/5/2019	Continuing Claims	1688k	1662k	1698k	1701k
9/5/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	62.5	—
9/5/2019	Markit US Services PMI	50.9	—	50.9	—
9/5/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	50.9	—
9/5/2019	Factory Orders	1.00%	—	0.60%	—
9/5/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.10%	—
9/5/2019	Durable Goods Orders	2.10%	—	2.10%	—
9/5/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	-0.40%	—	-0.40%	—
9/5/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.40%	—
9/5/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	-0.70%	—
9/5/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54	—	53.7	—
9/6/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
9/6/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	160k	—	164k	—
9/6/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	150k	—	148k	—
9/6/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	5k	—	16k	—
9/6/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.70%	—	3.70%	—
9/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
9/6/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.00%	—	3.20%	—
9/6/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.3	—
9/6/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	—	63.00%	—
9/6/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—

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