Reports that Chinese officials will travel to Washington in early October for trade talks has boosted risk assets overnight. S&P 500 futures are up nearly 1%, and Treasury yields are 5-6 bps higher. Germany reported another round of weak economic data (factory orders and construction data), which is reinforcing market expectations of the ECB announcing a new asset purchase program at the September 12 meeting. In the U.K., it now appears more likely that the 10/31 Brexit deadline will be extended by three months. Prime Minister Johnson will still try to push for new elections (likely mid-November at the earliest), but the probability of a “No Deal” Brexit in the near term is much lower.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
9/5/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 39.00% | 43.20% | — |
9/5/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 148k | 195k | 156k | 142k |
9/5/2019 | Nonfarm Productivity | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.30% | — |
9/5/2019 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.40% | 2.60% | 2.40% | — |
9/5/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 217k | 215k | 216k |
9/5/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1688k | 1662k | 1698k | 1701k |
9/5/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 62.5 | — |
9/5/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 50.9 | — | 50.9 | — |
9/5/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.9 | — |
9/5/2019 | Factory Orders | 1.00% | — | 0.60% | — |
9/5/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
9/5/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.10% | — | 2.10% | — |
9/5/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
9/5/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
9/5/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.70% | — |
9/5/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 54 | — | 53.7 | — |
9/6/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
9/6/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 160k | — | 164k | — |
9/6/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 150k | — | 148k | — |
9/6/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 16k | — |
9/6/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.70% | — |
9/6/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
9/6/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.20% | — |
9/6/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.3 | — |
9/6/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 63.00% | — |
9/6/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.00% | — |
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